Bitcoin: 200-Week MA Tests Cycle Support

Bitcoin has returned to the 200-Week MA for a support test, repeating the exact levels that marked cycle lows in 2015, 2018 and 2020 while 2022’s FTX collapse saw price slice straight through.

Daily RSI sits at the same depressed readings recorded during the COVID crash and the February 2026 sell-off, marking the zone where strong-hand accumulation has historically begun if the thesis on BTC remains intact. The only variable now is the STRC depeg; a reversal higher would likely trigger the bounce, whereas continued downside opens the door to sub-$60,000 prints.

On the 4h chart Bitcoin trades at $62,866.29 inside the Bollinger Bands with price wedged between $74,133.40 resistance and $61,674.96 support while the EMA50 at $70,628.18 and EMA200 at $75,094.95 act as stacked overhead resistance; the MACD death cross at -2,444.77 confirms bearish momentum yet the RSI(14) at 16.68 flashes deep oversold conditions, suggesting any relief rally would first need to reclaim the lower band before challenging the 50-EMA confluence.