Fed: Rate Hike Odds Climb to 64%

Kalshi markets now peg Fed rate hike odds at a low ~30% for the immediate term, but they've jumped to ~64% for next year, signaling potential policy shifts that could favor Bitcoin (BTC) in an environment of climbing inflation and declining real rates. This comes as the Senate officially confirms pro-BTC advocate Kevin Warsh as a Federal Reserve governor, a move that injects fresh optimism into crypto circles after last quarter's regulatory headwinds. No hike scenario already positions BTC for gains, echoing the bullish run we saw in Q4 2025 when similar macro signals drove a 25% rally.

On the 4h chart, BTC trades at $81,266.46 in a bullish structure, hugging the EMA50 support at $80,555.98 while staying well above the EMA200 at $76,872.46, which acts as a rock-solid long-term floor amid this uptrend. But watch the MACD flashing a bearish death cross at 85.23, clashing with neutral RSI at 53.71—price is grinding inside Bollinger Bands, testing upper resistance at $82,060.13 that could cap gains short-term, yet a dip to lower support at $80,181.87 might offer prime entry before resuming the push, especially if Fed inaction fuels risk-on flows into BTC price prediction models targeting six figures by year-end.