According to @gdb, any task that frontier AI can sort of do today will likely be done reliably one year from now, providing a heuristic to predict AI progress (source: Greg Brockman (@gdb) on X, Nov 6, 2025). This defines a one-year reliability horizon for emerging AI capabilities that traders can use as a timing baseline for productization and risk assumptions, as stated in the original heuristic (source: Greg Brockman (@gdb) on X, Nov 6, 2025). The statement does not reference specific assets or markets and should be treated as a general capability-timeline guideline rather than a market forecast (source: Greg Brockman (@gdb) on X, Nov 6, 2025).