According to @charliebilello, total U.S. jobs increased 0.8% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021 based on BLS payroll data, source: @charliebilello on X; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics. He adds that over the past 50 years, this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, source: @charliebilello on X. For traders, a cooling labor market raises the likelihood of easier policy given the Fed’s mandate to balance maximum employment and price stability, source: Federal Reserve Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. Historically, periods of slowing growth that coincide with falling real yields and a softer dollar have aligned with stronger risk-asset performance, and BTC and ETH have shown episodes of negative correlation to real yields and the DXY, source: Coin Metrics State of the Network; Kaiko Research cross-asset correlations; FRED real yield proxies and ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Monitor BLS labor reports alongside the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY as near-term drivers for crypto beta and liquidity conditions, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices.

According to Charlie Bilello, US jobs increased by less than 1% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, over the past 50 years this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, a macro risk flag traders can incorporate into positioning and risk management. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025.