ARK Invest projects Tesla $17.5T valuation by 2031: AI, robotaxis

ARK Invest has released a new Tesla valuation model projecting a base case market capitalization of $17.5 trillion by 2031, according to Sawyer Merritt.

Base Case Projections

The base case assumes a share price of $4,400 with total revenue of approximately $1.45 trillion and EBITDA of $902 billion.

• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, producing ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Robotaxi operations represent ~80% of Tesla enterprise value
• AI infrastructure spend grows cumulatively from ~$7B to $225B

Bull Case Projections

The bull case reaches a market cap of $20.4 trillion at $5,000 per share with total revenue of $1.62 trillion and EBITDA of $1.045 trillion.

• EV revenue excluding credits: $355B
• 10M robotaxis generating $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed for $193B revenue
• 1.2M Optimus robots sold externally for $254B revenue

Combined Outlook

ARK's model does not assume a SpaceX and Tesla merger yet estimates combined revenue of $3.8 trillion by 2031 with SpaceX contributing roughly 62%.

What is the main driver of Tesla value in the ARK model?

Robotaxi operations account for the largest share of enterprise value at approximately 80% in the base case.

How does AI infrastructure factor into the projections?

Tesla AI infrastructure cumulative spend rises from ~$7B to $225B by 2031 under the base case assumptions.