ARK Invest: Tesla hits 1M driverless miles, eyes FSD V15 ramp
According to ARK Invest via Sawyer Merritt, Tesla logged over 1 million unsupervised driverless miles across seven cities in three states in ~7 months, expects acceleration with FSD V15, and frames it as key to scaling robotaxi service.
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According to a tweet from Sawyer Merritt on October 19 2026 sharing ARK Invest analysis, Tesla has scaled unsupervised driverless operations to seven cities across three states and completed more than one million miles in roughly seven months.
This milestone occurred about four times faster than Waymo achieved its first million miles, with Tesla expecting further acceleration once FSD Version 15 releases late this year and viewing that update as the key gate for expanding its robotaxi service.
ARK Invest's new Tesla valuation model projects a base case market capitalization of 17.5 trillion dollars by 2031, driven primarily by an estimated 8.1 million robotaxis generating 753 billion dollars in ride-hail revenue, alongside roughly one million external Optimus robots and total revenue near 1.45 trillion dollars.
Sawyer Merritt
@SawyerMerrittA prominent Tesla and electric vehicle industry commentator, providing frequent updates on production numbers, delivery statistics, and technological developments. The content also covers broader clean energy trends and sustainable transportation solutions with a focus on data-driven analysis.