According to Eric Balchunas, BTC gained 122% last year—about 5x SPY and GLD—and he says this year’s flat performance simply mean-reverts the two-year average to roughly +50% (source: Eric Balchunas on X, Nov 15, 2025). For traders, Balchunas’s framing signals compressed near-term alpha versus equities and gold, suggesting a neutral or range-focused posture in BTC relative strength monitoring (source: Eric Balchunas on X, Nov 15, 2025).