Bitcoin: Futures Basis Trails 2-Year Treasury Since February

Bitcoin three-month futures basis has delivered lower returns than the 2-year Treasury since February, a stretch matched only by the August 2022 to January 2023 period that concluded at the cycle low.

The prolonged underperformance directly compresses market depth and volumes, tightening conditions for BTC price prediction models and overall crypto market liquidity.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC trades at $63143.59 beneath the EMA50 resistance at $63856.89 in a bearish structure, while the MACD golden cross at -297.32 hints at building momentum and RSI at 44.84 stays neutral; price remains inside the Bollinger bands, pointing to a likely probe of lower support near $61956.33 before any sustained advance.