Dragosch: AI Circular Financing Risks Bubble

André Dragosch flags circular capital flows inside the AI stack where Microsoft, Amazon and Google pour billions into startups that immediately repurchase compute from the same providers, turning reported earnings partly into accounting gains rather than operating cash.

Jefferies data shows the rise in hyperscaler non-operating income now matches the increase in net income, while $2.3 trillion in remaining performance obligations rests on just two cash-burning names whose token-price deflation has already slowed revenue growth. Annual capex approaching $1 trillion is increasingly debt-financed, echoing financing breakdowns of 1997, 2000 and 2008.

BTC 4H Technical Confluence

Bitcoin trades at $83499.74 inside its Bollinger bands with the upper resistance at $84254.21 and lower support at $82236.70. Price sits just above the EMA50 at $83474.2 while the EMA200 at $82319.61 continues to anchor the longer-term structure. The MACD golden cross at -3.39 keeps the trend bullish, yet neutral RSI at 51.99 shows no momentum excess, suggesting any test of upper-band resistance will likely meet supply before a measured pullback to the 50-EMA confluence zone.

Dragosch’s base case points to credit markets eventually pricing the gap between invested capital and realizable cash flows, with Bitcoin already positioned to register the first repricing.