Edward Dowd: China GDP Falls to 60% of US

Edward Dowd told Michaël van de Poppe that China's GDP priced in dollars fell from 80% of the US level before 2020 to 60% now, while 5% reported growth translates to zero in dollar terms. Net fixed investment, the factory-of-the-world engine, contracted 9.8% year over year for the first time in three decades. Dowd links the decline to post-2008 overbuilding that ignored a prime working-age population plateau in 2015 and drop after 2020, forcing an export push that triggers trade wars. He added that only the AI infrastructure buildout sustains US GDP, and removing it would confirm an already active recession.