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Latest Update
7/13/2026 8:31:00 AM

Market: IV Drop Confirms Bearish Setup

Market: IV Drop Confirms Bearish Setup

Market IV falls sharply after July rally, showing low volatility expectations and rising put volume typical of bear market conditions.

Source

Analysis

Market pullback accelerates as implied volatility across major maturities drops sharply, confirming the market now prices in persistently low volatility after the July rally stalled into a seesaw battle. The three-month IV trend reveals a sharp early-June decline that briefly lifted readings before the current collapse, underscoring how IV functions as a fear index that spikes on rapid drops and collapses once selling pauses. Rising put trading volume paired with this low-IV regime matches classic bear-market traits that a single bullish candle will not reverse, making the current window ideal for selling calls until two strong bullish candles appear.


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