Traders on the world's largest prediction market just slashed odds to 22% for OpenAI declaring artificial general intelligence this year, a stark drop from earlier hype.

Shifting Bets in AI's High-Stakes Game

Polymarket, renowned for nailing tech event outcomes like crypto surges in the past six months, now reflects investor caution. OpenAI, the powerhouse behind ChatGPT, defines AGI as systems outperforming humans in most economically valuable work. Yet, timelines stretch as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. This 22% probability underscores market skepticism, especially after OpenAI's recent deployment delays.

Historical Echoes and Market Pulse. Last year's accurate Polymarket calls on AI funding rounds highlight its edge over traditional forecasts. Users trade real-time odds on events from politics to tech breakthroughs, turning knowledge into profits. As OpenAI pushes boundaries, this bet signals broader doubts on rapid AGI arrival, influencing venture capital flows in Silicon Valley.