Traders on prediction platform Polymarket assign just a 28% probability to Anthropic unleashing its highly anticipated Claude Mythos AI model this April. This low odds reflect broader market caution in the AI development race, where delays have plagued even frontrunners like OpenAI over the past year.

Skepticism Grows in AI Forecasts

Anthropic, backed by tech giants, pushed boundaries with Claude 3's release last fall, integrating advanced reasoning that outpaced rivals. Yet, bettors now doubt a swift follow-up. Polymarket's decentralized oracle system, which resolved over 500 events accurately in the last six months, underscores this tempered enthusiasm. Investors eye regulatory hurdles from the EU's AI Act, tightened just three months ago, as a potential roadblock.

Amidst this, Claude Mythos whispers promise multimodal breakthroughs, blending text and vision in ways that could redefine AI model release timelines. Competitors like Google's Gemini iterated twice since October, heightening pressure. If Mythos drops, it might spike Anthropic's valuation, currently hovering at $25 billion post its January funding round.