MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Price Prediction: Analyst cuts meet a soft technical bid near $1,500

Analyst cuts have pulled the ceiling lower

MercadoLibre (MELI) has seen a wave of target reductions over the past week. UBS cut its target to $1,600 from $1,750 and kept a Hold rating on November 11. JPMorgan lowered its target to $1,850 from $2,150 and stayed Neutral on November 9. On November 5, Raymond James trimmed to $2,000 from $2,100 while keeping Strong Buy; Cantor Fitzgerald cut to $2,000 from $2,200 and held Overweight; Scotiabank reduced to $2,300 from $2,800 and kept Sector Outperform; and BTIG Research lowered to $2,050 from $2,150 and maintained Buy.

That cluster matters because it resets the near-term valuation debate even without a fresh earnings print in the evidence set. The targets still sit above the current share price, but the direction of travel is clear: analysts are becoming less aggressive on upside assumptions.

Price action is holding the line around the pivot

MELI stock closed the session at $1,513.52, barely changed on the day, inside a 24-hour range of $1,465.31 to $1,522.59. The stock is sitting just above the pivot point at $1,500.47, below immediate resistance at $1,535.64 and well under strong resistance at $1,557.75.

The moving-average setup is not trending cleanly. The 7-day SMA is $1,514.76, almost on top of the current price, while the 12-day EMA is higher at $1,560.74. That gap tells you the short-term bounce has not yet recovered the faster trend line. The reported structure is consolidation, and the low-volume pullback reading versus the 5-day average suggests the decline is not being met with heavy distribution.

Momentum is stretched, but not broken

The daily RSI at 30.40 and stochastic readings of 15.60 and 12.48 point to a weak momentum tape that is nearing oversold territory rather than confirming a full breakdown. ATR(14) of $67.96 says the stock can still move quickly once it leaves this range.

The key line in the sand is support at $1,478.36, with stronger support at $1,443.19. A clean hold above the pivot and immediate support keeps the door open for a retest of $1,535.64 and then $1,557.75. A loss of $1,478.36 would shift focus toward $1,443.19, where the chart would need to prove it can attract real demand.

Binance Futures shows buyers leaning in, but not decisively

Binance perpetual futures data is still constructive at the margin. Funding is positive at 0.0687%, which means longs are paying shorts. Global accounts are 52.6% long versus 47.4% short, and top-trader accounts are 55.0% long versus 45.0% short. The taker buy/sell ratio of 2.5110 also points to aggressive buying pressure over the last hour.

That said, open interest is not expanding with conviction. Real-time open interest stands at 65.75 contracts, with daily open interest value at $87,970 and a 24-hour OI change of -10.47%, which signals position closing or liquidations rather than fresh leveraged buildup. In other words, the derivatives tape leans mildly positive, but it is not confirming a powerful directional breakout.

What would change the read

If MELI reclaims the $1,535.64 area and then clears $1,557.75, the current consolidation would start to look like a base rather than a stalled rebound. If price slips back below $1,500.47 and loses $1,478.36, the next test is $1,443.19, and the recent analyst cuts will likely feel more relevant to traders than the still-positive funding and long ratios.

The clearest uncertainty is timing: the broker targets have shifted lower, but the chart is still sitting near short-term support, so price action has not yet chosen between stabilization and another leg lower.