Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 drop to 52.5%
A report says President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would destroy Iranian infrastructure after any ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
On July 22, 2026, a report said Iranian air defenses activated and explosions were heard over Tehran as the U.S. military marked an 11th straight day of strikes, with fires reported in Behbahan.
Polymarket: No US-Iran talks by Sept. 30 leads at 24.6% after Rubio warning
In Manila at an ASEAN gathering, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran’s reported push to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz could endanger global shipping and the world economy.
Polymarket odds hold 55% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31 after nuke news
A report says President Donald Trump approved a long-term Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that could allow uranium enrichment, with an announcement possible as soon as Wednesday.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz normal traffic drop to 54% after Iran strike reports
Reports said the US military carried out an eleventh straight night of strikes on Iran, with blasts near Tabriz and air defenses active around Tehran, aimed at limiting threats to Strait of Hormuz
Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M
A report says U.S.-Iran attacks stretched into a 10th straight day, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled and energy prices rising.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
A July 21 report said Trump demanded “meaningful” talks with Iran while warning he could strike a nuclear site.
Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds through July 18
The Netherlands is reported to plan a ban on products from Israeli settlements starting September 22, adding fresh political pressure in the region.
Polymarket odds of U.S. invading Iran before 2027 jump to 26.5%
Hamas elected Khalil al-Hayya as its new leader by a one-vote margin, underscoring internal splits over ties to Iran. Polymarket traders care because it could shift regional risk, with the “U.S.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely
Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz kept falling, a new report says, blaming the continued slide on fresh US–Iran attacks.