Israel & Gaza Prediction Markets
Gaza ground-control report keeps Israel PM race tight on Polymarket at 38.5%
A London-based Arabic-language newspaper reported Israeli forces expanded ground control across Gaza, pushing the “yellow line” deeper and reaching Salah al-Din Road in most areas.
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Peru declares Fujimori winner as Polymarket keeps Netanyahu at 39%
Peru’s National Jury of Elections declared Keiko Fujimori president, with 9,223,000 votes to Roberto Sanchez’s 9,173,000 after the June 7 runoff as fraud claims persisted without proof.
US seals $1 West Jerusalem embassy lease as Polymarket puts Netanyahu at 39.5%
The United States and Israel signed a $1 lease allocating land for a permanent US embassy in West Jerusalem, deepening the diplomatic stakes over the city’s status.
Antebi flags defense budget crunch as Polymarket keeps Eizenkot at 39%
At a conference, Bank Hapoalim CEO Yadin Antebi said the next Israeli government must rein in defense spending, warning it will shape living standards.
Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%
In a recent address, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit Russia’s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week and also struck a missile-components plant in Penza, claims Russia hasn’t confirmed.
Eizenkot kicks off election bid as Polymarket puts him at 40% to lead Israel
Gadi Eizenkot launched Yesh!’s election campaign with a speech warning Israel is at a crossroads and criticizing years of divisive rhetoric ahead of what he called the country’s most consequential
Trump touts Doha push as Polymarket cuts Lebanon-Israel recognition odds to 5%
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said U.S.
Knesset blocks Red Cross ban as Polymarket boosts Eizenkot to 41%
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset voted down a bill to bar International Red Cross visits to Palestinian detainees, 36–42, after a court said the ban lacked legal basis.
UAE lifts Lebanon travel ban as Polymarket sees 18% odds of Israel recognition
The United Arab Emirates has lifted a war-related ban on travel to Lebanon, reversing restrictions introduced during the conflict period.
Lapid alleges Netanyahu "satellite parties" as Polymarket backs Eizenkot 41.6%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Benjamin Netanyahu is building “satellite parties” ahead of Israel’s next election, arguing it signals he expects defeat.