US China & Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%
On July 1, 2026, a TV report said the Iran war is redirecting tourists from the Middle East to Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Spain, though higher costs and fuel prices still bite.
Philippines pitches GBA gateway as Polymarket Taiwan invasion odds slip to 14.5%
At the GBA-Asean Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, Philippine trade secretary Cristina Aldeguer-Roque said Manila aims to be a gateway for Greater Bay Area firms entering Southeast Asia.
Xi backs Belarus sovereignty, Polymarket keeps Xi out-by-2027 odds at 6.25%
After Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko met Vladimir Putin in Valdai, he traveled to Beijing, where Xi Jinping said China backs Belarus’s sovereignty and called for continued strategic dialogue.
Azteca showdown vs Ecuador nudges Mexico to 43.5% on Polymarket
Tuesday at Azteca Stadium, co-host Mexico and Ecuador meet with a last-16 spot on the line after Ecuador’s 2-1 comeback over Germany and Mexico’s perfect, unbeaten group run.
Philippines foils 2nd school attack plot as Polymarket clash odds dip to 13.5%
On Wednesday night, Philippine officials arrested a 14-year-old in Leyte after tracing online chatter about an impending mass shooting in Tacloban, days after three students were killed there.
Odds dip on China-Taiwan invasion bet as Polymarket prices Yes at 5.85%
On June 24, 2026, a feed item carried only a Hong Kong Happy Valley Race 1 result entry, with no cross-strait security update attached.
Micron earnings loom as Polymarket cuts China-Philippines clash odds to 13.5%
Investors are bracing for Micron’s quarterly earnings after chip stocks led a broad pullback, with the report seen as a key test of AI-driven pricing strength in memory.
Pentagon drops “Indo” from command name as Polymarket Taiwan clash stays 7.5%
On June 16, U.S. officials said the Pentagon will rename Indo-Pacific Command back to Pacific Command, a symbolic shift some analysts say could dent U.S.-India ties.
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Starmer resigns as Polymarket tilts Mexico to 50.5% vs Czechia
On Monday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he will resign and remain as caretaker until Labour picks a new leader, as Andy Burnham emerges as front-runner.
China widens curbs on U.S. firms as Polymarket Taiwan-invasion odds drop to 25%
On Monday, China added dozens of U.S. entities to new export controls and procurement bans, citing retaliation for Washington’s Pentagon-linked listings.