最新更新
4/25/2026 11:50:00 PM

Polymarket:知情交易者驱动准确性

Polymarket:知情交易者驱动准确性

Polymarket 价格在预测中表现出色,但仅有 3% 的知情交易者推动这一优势,揭穿了去中心化预测市场中的群体智慧理论。

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详细分析

一份新的工作论文粉碎了群体智慧理论去中心化预测市场Polymarket中的神话,揭示不到 3% 的账户——敏锐的金融市场中的知情交易者——实际上主导价格发现,而大众只是制造交易量并资助他们。Roberto Gomez Cram (@rgomezcram) 抛出这一重磅炸弹,显示大多数用户表现比随机猜测还差,回荡在过去一年中像Augur这样的前辈中,群体炒作往往掩盖精英信息玩法。这与更广泛的加密氛围相连,Bitcoin (BTC) 在平台上的投注暗示了类似动态,在最近的市场波动中。


Michael Bacina | | HK Consensus

@MikeBacina

Michael is a near 10 year veteran of web3 law with a particular interest in web3 gaming. He has worked with many leading web3 gaming projects and specialises in offshore structuring and complex contracts. He served as director for 5 years at Blockchain Australia (now Digital Economy Council of Australia) and for Chair in the last 2 years. He has published over 1,500 articles and given over 150 presentations on law and regulation and is the co-author of an upcoming foundational Blockchain and the Law textbook publishing in Q2 by a major legal publisher. Michael also served on the board of the Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce and on the board of the foundation responsible for Session, a web3 private messenger. Michael is based in the Cayman Islands and will soon be joining NXT.Law as a partner.