Polymarket: Informed Traders Drive Accuracy
Polymarket prices excel in predictions, but a tiny 3% of informed traders fuel that edge, debunking wisdom of crowds in decentralized prediction markets.
SourceA new working paper shreds the myth of wisdom of crowds theory in decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket, revealing that fewer than 3% of accounts—sharp informed traders in financial markets—actually steer price discovery while the masses just churn volume and bankroll them. Roberto Gomez Cram (@rgomezcram) drops this bombshell, showing most users flop worse than random guesses, echoing struggles in predecessors like Augur over the past year where crowd hype often masks elite info plays. This ties into broader crypto vibes, with Bitcoin (BTC) bets on platforms hinting at similar dynamics amid recent market swings.
Michael Bacina | | HK Consensus
@MikeBacinaMichael is a near 10 year veteran of web3 law with a particular interest in web3 gaming. He has worked with many leading web3 gaming projects and specialises in offshore structuring and complex contracts. He served as director for 5 years at Blockchain Australia (now Digital Economy Council of Australia) and for Chair in the last 2 years. He has published over 1,500 articles and given over 150 presentations on law and regulation and is the co-author of an upcoming foundational Blockchain and the Law textbook publishing in Q2 by a major legal publisher. Michael also served on the board of the Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce and on the board of the foundation responsible for Session, a web3 private messenger. Michael is based in the Cayman Islands and will soon be joining NXT.Law as a partner.
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