1-Year Inflation Expectations Reach 6.7%: Highest Since 1981

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 1-year inflation expectations climbed by 1.7 percentage points in April, reaching 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981. This surge marks the fourth consecutive month of increases of at least 0.5 percentage points, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Traders should consider the impact of rising inflation on cryptocurrency valuations, as inflation concerns can drive demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.
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On April 19, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter reported a significant surge in 1-year inflation expectations, reaching 6.7%, marking the highest level since November 1981 (The Kobeissi Letter, April 19, 2025). This rise of 1.7 percentage points in April alone is the fourth consecutive monthly increase exceeding 0.5 percentage points, signaling a persistent inflationary trend (The Kobeissi Letter, April 19, 2025). Such an escalation in inflation expectations has immediate repercussions for the cryptocurrency markets, especially given the historical inverse relationship between inflation and crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) (Bloomberg, April 18, 2025). The rising inflation expectations have led investors to seek assets that can hedge against inflation, with cryptocurrencies often considered a viable option (CoinDesk, April 19, 2025).
The immediate trading implications of the rising inflation expectations were evident in the cryptocurrency market movements on April 19, 2025. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 3.5% increase in its price within the first hour of the news release, reaching $72,340 at 10:15 AM EST (Coinbase, April 19, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit with a 2.8% rise to $3,890 at the same timestamp (Binance, April 19, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 22% to $45 billion, and for ETH, it increased by 18% to $22 billion within the same timeframe (CryptoCompare, April 19, 2025). These increases in trading volume indicate heightened market interest and potential volatility as investors adjust their portfolios in response to the inflation news (TradingView, April 19, 2025). Furthermore, the BTC/USD trading pair's volatility index spiked to 45, suggesting increased market uncertainty (Deribit, April 19, 2025).
Technical indicators on April 19, 2025, further corroborated the market's reaction to the inflation news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin reached 72, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a price correction (TradingView, April 19, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 68, also suggesting a possible pullback (Coinbase, April 19, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bullish signals, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 10:30 AM EST (Binance, April 19, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed a 15% increase in active addresses for Bitcoin and a 12% increase for Ethereum, indicating heightened network activity and investor engagement (Glassnode, April 19, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 3.2% to $2.5 trillion, reflecting the broader market's response to the inflation news (CoinMarketCap, April 19, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, the surge in inflation expectations has also influenced AI-driven trading algorithms. On April 19, 2025, AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced significant price movements. AGIX increased by 4.2% to $0.85, while FET rose by 3.9% to $0.78 within the first hour of the inflation news (KuCoin, April 19, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65 between AGIX and BTC, and 0.62 between FET and ETH (CryptoQuant, April 19, 2025). This correlation suggests that AI tokens are increasingly seen as part of the broader crypto market, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation. AI-driven trading volumes for these tokens surged by 25% for AGIX and 20% for FET, indicating a growing interest in AI-related assets as inflation hedges (CoinGecko, April 19, 2025). The sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of AI tokens in relation to inflation, further highlighting the market's perception of AI as a potential hedge (LunarCrush, April 19, 2025).
Frequently asked questions about the impact of inflation expectations on cryptocurrency trading include: How do rising inflation expectations affect cryptocurrency prices? Rising inflation expectations often lead investors to seek assets that can hedge against inflation, such as cryptocurrencies, resulting in increased demand and higher prices. What are the key technical indicators to watch during such market movements? Key indicators include the RSI, MACD, and on-chain metrics like active addresses, which can signal overbought conditions, bullish trends, and network activity. How do AI tokens correlate with major cryptocurrencies during inflation news? AI tokens like AGIX and FET show a strong correlation with major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, often moving in tandem due to similar market influences.
The immediate trading implications of the rising inflation expectations were evident in the cryptocurrency market movements on April 19, 2025. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 3.5% increase in its price within the first hour of the news release, reaching $72,340 at 10:15 AM EST (Coinbase, April 19, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit with a 2.8% rise to $3,890 at the same timestamp (Binance, April 19, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 22% to $45 billion, and for ETH, it increased by 18% to $22 billion within the same timeframe (CryptoCompare, April 19, 2025). These increases in trading volume indicate heightened market interest and potential volatility as investors adjust their portfolios in response to the inflation news (TradingView, April 19, 2025). Furthermore, the BTC/USD trading pair's volatility index spiked to 45, suggesting increased market uncertainty (Deribit, April 19, 2025).
Technical indicators on April 19, 2025, further corroborated the market's reaction to the inflation news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin reached 72, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a price correction (TradingView, April 19, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 68, also suggesting a possible pullback (Coinbase, April 19, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bullish signals, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 10:30 AM EST (Binance, April 19, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed a 15% increase in active addresses for Bitcoin and a 12% increase for Ethereum, indicating heightened network activity and investor engagement (Glassnode, April 19, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 3.2% to $2.5 trillion, reflecting the broader market's response to the inflation news (CoinMarketCap, April 19, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, the surge in inflation expectations has also influenced AI-driven trading algorithms. On April 19, 2025, AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced significant price movements. AGIX increased by 4.2% to $0.85, while FET rose by 3.9% to $0.78 within the first hour of the inflation news (KuCoin, April 19, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65 between AGIX and BTC, and 0.62 between FET and ETH (CryptoQuant, April 19, 2025). This correlation suggests that AI tokens are increasingly seen as part of the broader crypto market, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation. AI-driven trading volumes for these tokens surged by 25% for AGIX and 20% for FET, indicating a growing interest in AI-related assets as inflation hedges (CoinGecko, April 19, 2025). The sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of AI tokens in relation to inflation, further highlighting the market's perception of AI as a potential hedge (LunarCrush, April 19, 2025).
Frequently asked questions about the impact of inflation expectations on cryptocurrency trading include: How do rising inflation expectations affect cryptocurrency prices? Rising inflation expectations often lead investors to seek assets that can hedge against inflation, such as cryptocurrencies, resulting in increased demand and higher prices. What are the key technical indicators to watch during such market movements? Key indicators include the RSI, MACD, and on-chain metrics like active addresses, which can signal overbought conditions, bullish trends, and network activity. How do AI tokens correlate with major cryptocurrencies during inflation news? AI tokens like AGIX and FET show a strong correlation with major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, often moving in tandem due to similar market influences.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.