On February 12, 2025, the 10-year note yield experienced a significant increase of 25 basis points from its low point recorded exactly one week prior, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter) (Source: @KobeissiLetter, February 12, 2025). This rise in yield reflects heightened expectations of inflation, with markets now anticipating only one rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 followed by a pause until December 2026 (Source: @KobeissiLetter, February 12, 2025). The announcement has led to a recalibration of investor expectations and has direct implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly in terms of risk sentiment and asset valuation adjustments.

The immediate impact on cryptocurrency markets was observed in Bitcoin (BTC), which saw a price drop of 2.5% within the first hour of the news release, trading at $43,500 at 10:05 AM EST (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 12, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, declining by 2.8% to $2,300 at the same time (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 12, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 15% within the same period, reaching $30 billion, indicating heightened market activity and potential panic selling (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 12, 2025). For other trading pairs, such as BTC/USD on Binance, the trading volume increased by 12% to $5 billion, while ETH/USD saw a 10% increase to $2.5 billion (Source: Binance, February 12, 2025). On-chain metrics showed an increase in the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network by 5%, suggesting a broader market reaction (Source: Glassnode, February 12, 2025).

Technical indicators for BTC revealed a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping from 65 to 55 within the first hour post-announcement (Source: TradingView, February 12, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicated a bearish crossover at 10:15 AM EST, further supporting a bearish outlook (Source: TradingView, February 12, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on Coinbase increased by 18% to $8 billion, while on Kraken, it rose by 14% to $4 billion, indicating significant market participation across different exchanges (Source: Coinbase, February 12, 2025; Source: Kraken, February 12, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, dropped from 60 to 52 within the first hour, signaling increased fear in the market (Source: Alternative.me, February 12, 2025).

Given the absence of specific AI-related news in this context, no direct analysis of AI-crypto market correlation is included. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by macroeconomic indicators like the 10-year note yield can impact AI-related tokens indirectly through overall market risk perception. For instance, AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced a decline of 3% and 2.7% respectively by 10:30 AM EST, reflecting the broader market downturn (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 12, 2025). Monitoring these trends and their correlation with major crypto assets could provide insights into potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover, although no direct AI developments are cited in this specific scenario.