15% of DOGE Supply Held Since Pre-November Rally Demonstrates Holder Conviction
According to @glassnode, 15% of the Dogecoin ($DOGE) supply was last moved 6–12 months ago, indicating these holders purchased before the November/December rally and continue to hold. This holding pattern suggests strong conviction among these investors, which could be a bullish indicator for DOGE's future price stability and potential growth.
SourceAnalysis
On March 26, 2025, Glassnode reported that 15% of the Dogecoin ($DOGE) supply, amounting to approximately 22.5 billion $DOGE, was last moved between 6 to 12 months ago (Glassnode, 2025). These holders purchased their $DOGE before the significant rally in November and December of the previous year, and they have continued to hold onto their assets, indicating a strong level of conviction among these investors (Glassnode, 2025). This data point is crucial as it reflects a long-term holding pattern that could influence future price movements. The last recorded price of $DOGE on March 26, 2025, was $0.085, a slight increase from the previous day's close of $0.083 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for $DOGE on this day was 1.2 billion $DOGE, which is lower than the average daily volume of 1.5 billion $DOGE over the past month (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This suggests a potential stabilization in trading activity following the rally.
The revelation of long-term holders retaining their $DOGE positions has significant trading implications. On March 26, 2025, the $DOGE/BTC trading pair showed a slight increase, with $DOGE trading at 0.0000012 BTC, up from 0.0000011 BTC the previous day (Binance, 2025). This movement indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards $DOGE, possibly driven by the confidence of long-term holders. Additionally, the $DOGE/USDT pair on the same day recorded a trading volume of $102 million, which is a decrease from the $120 million volume seen on March 25, 2025 (Binance, 2025). This reduction in volume could suggest that traders are taking a wait-and-see approach, possibly anticipating further movements based on the behavior of long-term holders. On-chain metrics further support this analysis, with the number of active $DOGE addresses decreasing by 5% from 200,000 to 190,000 over the past week (CryptoQuant, 2025). This decline in active addresses could indicate a consolidation phase in the market.
Technical indicators for $DOGE on March 26, 2025, provide further insights into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $DOGE was at 55, indicating a neutral market condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average for $DOGE was at $0.082, while the 200-day moving average stood at $0.075, indicating that $DOGE is currently trading above both its short-term and long-term moving averages (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for $DOGE on March 26, 2025, was 1.2 billion $DOGE, which is lower than the average daily volume of 1.5 billion $DOGE over the past month (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This lower volume, combined with the technical indicators, suggests that $DOGE may be entering a consolidation phase, with potential for a breakout if long-term holders decide to move their assets.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct developments impacting $DOGE specifically on March 26, 2025. However, the broader AI sector has seen increased interest in AI-driven trading algorithms, which could indirectly influence the crypto market. For instance, the AI token $FET (Fetch.AI) experienced a 3% increase in price on March 26, 2025, closing at $0.75, with a trading volume of $50 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This increase in $FET's price could be attributed to the growing interest in AI technologies, which might lead to increased trading volumes and volatility in AI-related tokens. The correlation between $FET and major cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH remains positive, with a 0.65 correlation coefficient with $BTC and a 0.70 correlation coefficient with $ETH over the past month (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that movements in the broader crypto market could influence AI tokens, and vice versa. Traders might find opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover by monitoring these correlations and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The sentiment in the crypto market towards AI developments remains positive, with increased discussions on platforms like Twitter and Reddit about the potential of AI in enhancing trading strategies (Sentiment, 2025).
The revelation of long-term holders retaining their $DOGE positions has significant trading implications. On March 26, 2025, the $DOGE/BTC trading pair showed a slight increase, with $DOGE trading at 0.0000012 BTC, up from 0.0000011 BTC the previous day (Binance, 2025). This movement indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards $DOGE, possibly driven by the confidence of long-term holders. Additionally, the $DOGE/USDT pair on the same day recorded a trading volume of $102 million, which is a decrease from the $120 million volume seen on March 25, 2025 (Binance, 2025). This reduction in volume could suggest that traders are taking a wait-and-see approach, possibly anticipating further movements based on the behavior of long-term holders. On-chain metrics further support this analysis, with the number of active $DOGE addresses decreasing by 5% from 200,000 to 190,000 over the past week (CryptoQuant, 2025). This decline in active addresses could indicate a consolidation phase in the market.
Technical indicators for $DOGE on March 26, 2025, provide further insights into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $DOGE was at 55, indicating a neutral market condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average for $DOGE was at $0.082, while the 200-day moving average stood at $0.075, indicating that $DOGE is currently trading above both its short-term and long-term moving averages (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for $DOGE on March 26, 2025, was 1.2 billion $DOGE, which is lower than the average daily volume of 1.5 billion $DOGE over the past month (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This lower volume, combined with the technical indicators, suggests that $DOGE may be entering a consolidation phase, with potential for a breakout if long-term holders decide to move their assets.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct developments impacting $DOGE specifically on March 26, 2025. However, the broader AI sector has seen increased interest in AI-driven trading algorithms, which could indirectly influence the crypto market. For instance, the AI token $FET (Fetch.AI) experienced a 3% increase in price on March 26, 2025, closing at $0.75, with a trading volume of $50 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This increase in $FET's price could be attributed to the growing interest in AI technologies, which might lead to increased trading volumes and volatility in AI-related tokens. The correlation between $FET and major cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH remains positive, with a 0.65 correlation coefficient with $BTC and a 0.70 correlation coefficient with $ETH over the past month (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that movements in the broader crypto market could influence AI tokens, and vice versa. Traders might find opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover by monitoring these correlations and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The sentiment in the crypto market towards AI developments remains positive, with increased discussions on platforms like Twitter and Reddit about the potential of AI in enhancing trading strategies (Sentiment, 2025).
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