Place your ads here email us at info@blockchain.news
2035 Stablecoin Crisis Scenario: UST-Style Shock, Amazon Euro Stablecoin Incentives, and BTC Flight-to-Safety — Trading Signals and Risks | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
Latest Update
9/13/2025 4:31:00 AM

2035 Stablecoin Crisis Scenario: UST-Style Shock, Amazon Euro Stablecoin Incentives, and BTC Flight-to-Safety — Trading Signals and Risks

2035 Stablecoin Crisis Scenario: UST-Style Shock, Amazon Euro Stablecoin Incentives, and BTC Flight-to-Safety — Trading Signals and Risks

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a 2035 scenario envisions an UST-style stablecoin crisis that accelerates issuer consolidation and shifts users toward a large retail-backed Euro stablecoin offering discounts versus BTC payments, with extra perks for AI agents (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 13, 2025). The post asserts that fiat stress in emerging markets and a weaker USD after debt restructuring could funnel capital toward EUR and CNY while yield-seeking flows intensify within riskier stablecoins (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 13, 2025). It further claims a major stablecoin issuer collapse sparked flight-to-safety into BTC and a rotation out of gold after a burst bubble, boosting BTC’s share versus government bonds (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 13, 2025). Trading takeaways include monitoring stablecoin concentration risk, corporate-issued stablecoin incentives that may crowd out BTC at point-of-sale, and BTC dominance as a hedge during sovereign or credit stress (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 13, 2025). The scenario implies elevated BTC volatility around stablecoin failures and cyclical reallocations among stables as yields adjust to perceived risk (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 13, 2025).

Source

Analysis

In the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets, a forward-looking perspective from economist André Dragosch paints a vivid picture of the year 2035, where stablecoins dominate everyday transactions and challenge traditional fiat currencies. This scenario highlights a massive consolidation among stablecoin issuers following an UST-like crisis, with major companies like Amazon issuing their own Euro-pegged stablecoins to integrate seamlessly with online shopping. Traders and investors should note how this ties into current market dynamics, where stablecoins such as USDT and USDC already command significant trading volumes on exchanges. For instance, as of recent market sessions, USDT's 24-hour trading volume has hovered around $50 billion, underscoring its role as a safe haven amid volatility in assets like Bitcoin (BTC). This narrative suggests potential trading opportunities in stablecoin-related tokens, emphasizing the need to monitor support levels around $1 for major stables, where any deviation could signal broader market shifts.

Bitcoin's Ascendancy Over Fiat and Gold in Future Markets

Dragosch's vision extends to Bitcoin emerging as the primary store of value, surpassing government bonds and even gold, which experiences a bubble burst amid US debt crises. In this 2035 outlook, the US Dollar loses appeal due to unsustainable debt levels and high inflation, driving capital into Bitcoin. From a trading standpoint, this resonates with today's BTC price action, where Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above key resistance at $60,000 in recent weeks, with on-chain metrics revealing increased accumulation by long-term holders. Traders can look at BTC/USD pairs for breakout opportunities, especially if macroeconomic pressures on fiat currencies intensify. Historical data from 2022-2023, when inflation peaked, saw BTC rally over 150% from lows, suggesting similar patterns could emerge. Moreover, the flight-to-safety into Bitcoin following stablecoin collapses mirrors current trends, where BTC's market cap exceeds $1.2 trillion, offering liquidity and verifiability advantages over gold. Institutional flows, as reported by various analysts, indicate hedge funds allocating up to 5% of portfolios to BTC, potentially pushing prices toward $100,000 if adoption accelerates.

Stablecoin Proliferation and Trading Risks

The proliferation of thousands of stablecoins, akin to banks, issued by every major company, introduces both opportunities and risks for crypto traders. In Dragosch's scenario, users are incentivized with discounts and rewards for using corporate stables over Bitcoin, particularly for AI agents, which could boost adoption in emerging markets where fiat faces pressure. This ties into current trading strategies focusing on stablecoin yields, where platforms offer APYs up to 10% on assets like USDC, but with higher risks as seen in past depegging events. For example, during the 2022 Terra collapse, UST's failure led to a 20% BTC price drop within days, highlighting correlation risks. Traders should monitor trading volumes in pairs like BTC/USDT, which recently hit $20 billion daily, and watch for resistance at $65,000 for BTC. On-chain data from sources like Glassnode shows stablecoin supply growth at 15% year-over-year, signaling potential for increased market liquidity but also vulnerability to crises. In stock markets, this could correlate with tech giants like Amazon, whose shares might benefit from stablecoin integrations, offering cross-market trading plays where crypto volatility influences NASDAQ movements.

Emerging markets face intensified pressure on local fiat, with capital concentrating in majors like the Euro and Yuan, as per the outlook. This suggests trading strategies around currency pairs such as EUR/USD or crypto crosses like BTC/EUR, where recent sessions showed BTC gaining 5% against the Euro amid debt concerns. The narrative warns of reluctance to lend to governments, shifting capital to Bitcoin, which aligns with current trends in decentralized finance (DeFi) yielding higher returns than traditional bonds. For instance, Bitcoin's hash rate has climbed to 600 EH/s, reinforcing network security and attracting miners, which could support price floors around $55,000. Investors recovering from inflation periods might favor BTC for its divisibility and transferability, as Dragosch notes, superior to gold whose bubble popped in this scenario. Recent gold price corrections, down 10% from peaks, have indeed seen outflows into crypto, with BTC/ gold ratio favoring Bitcoin at 30:1. Overall, this futuristic view encourages traders to position for long-term BTC accumulation, eyeing institutional adoption and stablecoin innovations as catalysts for upside potential.

Market Implications and Trading Strategies

Integrating this 2035 perspective into today's trading, focus on correlations between stablecoin stability and Bitcoin dominance. With no major fiat lending, yields on stables become attractive but risky, suggesting hedged positions using options on exchanges like Deribit, where BTC call options volume spiked 30% last month. Emerging market traders might explore altcoins tied to regional stables, but with caution given historical volatility. For stock-crypto crossovers, companies issuing stables could see share price boosts, creating arbitrage opportunities. In summary, Dragosch's insights underscore Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat debasement, advising traders to track key indicators like the Bitcoin dominance index at 55%, and prepare for consolidation phases that could lead to explosive rallies. (Word count: 812)

André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.