According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s risk-reward is skewed to the upside as short-term holders have capitulated and sentiment is shattered, framing a constructive setup for BTC; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 21, 2025. He notes BTC has dipped below its previous cycle all-time high only once, during the FTX collapse, implying deeper cycle breakdowns are historically rare; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 21, 2025. He highlights 75,000 as a potential downside test aligning with MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) cost basis, which he characterizes as fire-sale valuations if reached; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 21, 2025. He disputes Fundstrat’s internal outlook for H1 2026 that projects BTC at 60k–65k, ETH at 1.8k–2k, and SOL at 50–75, stating that view will not age well; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 21, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin is significantly underpriced and the macro cycle is far from over, source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch on Dec 20, 2025. He endorsed Raoul Pal’s macro thesis delivered at the Solana Breakpoint conference in Abu Dhabi and shared Pal’s video post, source: X post by @RaoulGMI in Dec 2025. For trading, this alignment indicates a bullish continuation bias for BTC positioning until macro conditions shift, source: conclusions stated by @Andre_Dragosch and @RaoulGMI in their X posts.

According to André Dragosch, a consolidated list of 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts from major institutions has been published with direct links to the underlying reports, enabling fast access to research-backed targets for trading decisions, source: André Dragosch via X on Dec 20, 2025. Traders can use this single resource to compare institutional BTC targets, assess scenario dispersion, and align risk management and positioning with referenced outlooks, source: André Dragosch via X on Dec 20, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC is hovering near 87,000 while Deribit shows a massive positive gamma wall around 85,000, a level that can act as support and a price magnet in the near term, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He notes dealers are in long gamma, which typically leads to selling rallies and buying dips, reinforcing a magnetic pull lower toward the 85,000 area, source: @Andre_Dragosch. The immediate setup implies a short-term bearish bias with potential consolidation or a dip to retest 85,000 support, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Strategic Reserve Accumulation (SRA) model by Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter frames Bitcoin BTC as an emerging strategic reserve asset with price driven by shrinking liquid supply, a 10-12 year logistic adoption curve, inelastic CES demand, and reflexive feedback between price and adoption (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 19, 2025). He reports institutional reserve accumulation is capped at 1k-3k BTC per day across scenarios, implying persistent float reduction and demand-led price formation relevant for traders tracking liquidity and ETF inflows (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 19, 2025). Price forecasts cited are 2030 bear base bull at about 250k 540k 1.5M dollars and 2035 at about 500k 950k 5M plus, from a starting point near 65k post 2024 halving, highlighting demand outpacing supply as adoption scales (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 19, 2025). Dragosch adds that prior halving-cycle models such as Stock-to-Flow and BAERM are less informative as ETFs BTCTCs and sovereign demand shift drivers from supply to demand, while the Power Law model may be too conservative amid accelerating adoption, shaping a new trading regime (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 19, 2025). He cautions the SRA relies on strong assumptions and may be destabilized by slower adoption regulation macro shocks or competing reserve assets, so outputs should be used as scenario guidance not gospel for risk management (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 19, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin is way too underpriced, highlighting Cryptofy Hub’s analysis that the last three times BTC’s standard deviation fell to a similarly low level it aligned with macro bottoms, with an exception around the FTX collapse; BTC reached this low again in November (source: X/@Andre_Dragosch, 2025-12-19, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001877050832097639; source: X/@CryptofyHub, https://x.com/CryptofyHub/status/2001513927348490390).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Europe’s equity markets are historically overweight financials that benefit from higher interest rates, while US tech tends to suffer in higher-rate environments (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders can express this view via sector and regional rotation by overweighting European financials and underweighting US tech when rate expectations remain elevated (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC continues to trade above the average US Bitcoin ETF cost basis, which he identifies as a key support level during the current bull cycle; no specific price level was disclosed in the post (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, transfer volume remains large at roughly $9.6 billion per day, with buys matching sells as sizable entities pick up volume. source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025. He reports that 78% of this volume originates from transactions larger than $1 million, and that share reached a new all-time high four days ago. source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025. He also notes the share of institutional buying as a percentage of Coinbase volume is at an all-time high, indicating institutions are returning in size. source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, accumulation has been picking up among very large crypto “whale” wallet cohorts and small wallets, while mid-sized cohorts are not showing the same strength (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025). Overall accumulation activity is re-accelerating (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025). He also notes that whales are not necessarily identical with long-term holders (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 18, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the shared model shows the average BTC path after the Relative Strength Index drops below 30 at t=0, with price action so far closely tracking the historical trajectory, which is relevant for timing entries after oversold conditions and managing risk during recoveries; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the view presented rejects the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing the cycle has been broken and likely extends well into 2026 based on business cycle work, current financial conditions, and expected liquidity, which supports a medium-term bullish bias; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the rationale ties the prior 4-year rhythm to the public debt refinancing cycle rather than the halving, noting an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt structure and large interest expense needing monetization as structural liquidity drivers, which is constructive for BTC risk allocation; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should expect base-building with choppy ranges before a larger up-move, favoring a disciplined accumulation approach and patience, aligning with the “stay humble and stack sats” mindset for DCA and position adds on dips; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network capacity has reached a record 5,606 BTC, relayed from @BitcoinArchive’s update on X (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; @BitcoinArchive on X). The post labels the milestone as 'The Square Effect,' while the source update does not provide additional trading or price data (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, oil and gold rose while Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq declined around a fresh geopolitical risk shock, signaling a near-term risk-off regime for crypto and equities (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155). He reports that across the top 20 geopolitical risk events since BTC’s inception, BTC averaged +64.6% by day 50 after the event with a +17.3% median, framing geopolitics as short-term bearish but medium-term bullish for BTC (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804). He advises planning for initial downside followed by potential medium-term upside consistent with this historical 50-day rebound pattern (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155; https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, DocumentingBTC published a video map showing Bitcoin (BTC) payment merchant adoption by U.S. state on X, highlighting where BTC payments are currently supported by merchants; this shared resource gives traders a concrete, state-by-state view of BTC payment penetration for assessing regional adoption signals. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; DocumentingBTC on X. The post does not disclose quantitative counts or rankings by state, indicating the content is a visual overview rather than a detailed dataset. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X; DocumentingBTC on X.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the FOMC stated it will initiate the purchase of short-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis, highlighting a reserve-management focus that can add banking system liquidity if activated (Source: Federal Reserve statement excerpt cited by Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 12, 2025). Dragosch also states the Fed has been buying at the long end despite QT and characterizes this as a return to asset purchases across the curve, which he flags as significant for market pricing of duration and liquidity risk (Source: Andre Dragosch on X; chart attribution: Econimica). For trading, monitor front-end bill yields versus ON RRP usage, weekly reserve balances on H.4.1, 2Y/10Y UST curve levels, USD DXY, and crypto liquidity proxies such as stablecoin net issuance to gauge cross-asset liquidity transmission, including potential impacts on BTC and ETH (Sources: Federal Reserve H.4.1 and ON RRP releases; U.S. Treasury yield data; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; public stablecoin supply dashboards).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) sold off on the FOMC headlines as long-dated bond yields rose on developments in Japan and France, source @Andre_Dragosch. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Fed announced another rate cut plus short-end liquidity actions he describes as QE not QE, and yield curves are resteepening, source @Andre_Dragosch. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this backdrop signals continued record-high global money supply growth, a liquidity factor with direct implications for crypto market risk appetite and BTC volatility, source @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) functions as a 'CDS' on sovereign bonds, a view he reposted in light of the latest Japanese government bond (JGB) market developments (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this framing implies BTC reflects rising sovereign credit stress, with particular relevance when JGB markets experience dislocations or heightened volatility (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC’s macro role should be interpreted through sovereign risk dynamics during bond market turbulence (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025).

According to André Dragosch on X (Dec 10, 2025), Bitcoin (BTC) average returns around FOMC windows are 5D +0.9%, 10D +3.9%, 20D +11.1%, and 50D +28.6% (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). The corresponding excess returns versus non-FOMC baselines are 5D -0.9%, 10D ~0%, 20D +2.1%, and 50D -0.9% (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). Excess performance is defined as event performance minus the average performance over the same horizon, such as 5D, 10D, 20D, or 50D (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025). With excess performance fluctuating around 0%, the data indicate almost no significant performance effect from FOMC meetings on BTC compared to non-FOMC dates, suggesting limited historical alpha for event-timed BTC trades around FOMC outcomes (Source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 10, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s average path across all FOMC events since July 2010 trends higher, but the meetings’ direct impact is short-lived (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, after adjusting for BTC’s structural upward drift, FOMC meetings tend to behave as a sell-the-news event with below-average short-term performance (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this pattern implies elevated risk of post-announcement fades in BTC, making cautious positioning around the decision and press conference more prudent for short-term traders (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 10, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BITB and BTCE shares from BitwiseInvest and Bitwise_Europe are trading on the new Roxom exchange, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 9, 2025). This confirms these tickers are available on Roxom in addition to other venues, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 9, 2025).