According to @Andre_Dragosch, gold’s market cap is about $29 trillion and 3.4% of that equals roughly $1 trillion, used as a scenario input for BTC flows (source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 18, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $2.2 trillion, its realized cap is about $1 trillion, and its MVRV is about 2.2 (source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 18, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, applying an MVRV of 2.2 to a $1 trillion increase in realized cap would add about $2.2 trillion to BTC’s market cap, implying roughly a 2x from current levels under this scenario (source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 18, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a rotation of just 1.7% of gold’s market value into Bitcoin could double BTC to about 200,000 USD, highlighting BTC’s high price sensitivity to marginal flows, source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 18, 2025. Using World Gold Council estimates that the total value of above-ground gold has been roughly 13–16 trillion USD in recent years, a 1.7% shift implies about 220–270 billion USD of potential inflows, source: World Gold Council. At 200,000 USD per BTC and a circulating supply near 19.6–19.7 million coins, Bitcoin’s market value would be around 3.9 trillion USD, implying a market-impact multiple of roughly 14–18x versus the notional inflow; traders should monitor BTC dominance, spot BTC ETF net flows, and gold outflows for confirmation of rotation, source: Blockchain.com circulating supply data; arithmetic based on price × supply; issuers’ daily ETF flow reports; LBMA gold market statistics.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a rumor circulating on X alleges the U.S. government could sell gold to buy bitcoin (BTC), and he notes it has been mentioned previously by former White House executive Bo Hines; this is presented as rumor without primary documentation. Source: André Dragosch on X. There is no official confirmation cited from the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the White House in the post, so traders should treat this as unverified market chatter rather than confirmed policy. Source: André Dragosch on X. To verify claims, check the Treasury Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold for any reported changes from historically disclosed reserves and monitor official releases. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Monitor U.S. Government labeled BTC wallets for unusual transfers or exchange-linked activity that could evidence buying or selling flows. Source: Arkham Intelligence. Track spot bitcoin ETF net creations or redemptions for abnormal inflows that might indicate large-scale demand shifts. Sources: iShares IBIT issuer dashboard and Fidelity FBTC issuer dashboard. Watch COMEX gold futures price, volume, and open interest for signs of abnormal selling pressure potentially tied to reserve-related headlines. Source: CME Group. For cross-asset context during rumor-driven moves, monitor the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields as commonly watched macro gauges alongside BTC and gold. Sources: ICE Data for DXY and Federal Reserve H.15.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s mempool is almost empty while he characterizes gold’s as 'clogged,' highlighting a divergence in settlement backlogs between BTC and traditional bullion markets. Source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 17, 2025 An almost-empty BTC mempool typically indicates few pending transactions and lower fee pressure, creating favorable conditions for on-chain rebalancing, arbitrage flows, and exchange withdrawals at reduced cost. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Bitcoin Core documentation When the mempool is sparse, fee estimates tend to decline, allowing traders to consolidate UTXOs and time large transfers with cheaper sat/vB pricing to optimize execution. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Bitcoin Core documentation The 'clogged gold mempool' framing underscores Bitcoin’s relative settlement efficiency narrative versus gold, a signal some macro traders may translate into relative positioning such as BTC/XAU pairs. Source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 17, 2025 Active monitoring of mempool size and median fee rates can help traders anticipate on-chain liquidity conditions and adjust transfer timing accordingly to minimize slippage and network costs. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Bitcoin Core documentation

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index flashed Extreme Fear again this morning, indicating a sharp deterioration in crypto market sentiment. Source: https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1979025959018770669 Extreme Fear is defined as a score of 0–24 and the index is built from volatility, market momentum/volume, social media, BTC dominance, and Google Trends, according to Alternative.me. Source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ Alternative.me states that Extreme Fear can signal investors may be overly worried and can present contrarian buying opportunities that traders assess when positioning in BTC and ETH. Source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

According to @Andre_Dragosch, cryptoasset sentiment has already undergone significant capitulation, while traditional finance sentiment is now catching down to the downside, implying relative resilience for Bitcoin (BTC) during the current macro turmoil. Source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 16, 2025. According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC acts as the canary in the macro coalmine, having led in pricing risk and potentially holding up better than other risk assets as broader risk-off accelerates. Source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 16, 2025. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders can position for potential BTC relative strength versus equities and higher-beta crypto if this divergence in sentiment persists, with the thesis hinging on TradFi sentiment normalization lagging crypto. Source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 16, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, after the SVB collapse on Mar 10, 2023 when BTC traded at $20,178, Bitcoin reached $29,734 (+47%) after 1 month, $25,882 (+28%) after 3 months, $25,828 (+28%) after 6 months, and $69,041 (+242%) after 12 months (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He summarizes the move as from panic to parabolic and highlights these four trading horizons and reference price levels for BTC that traders can benchmark historically (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, accumulating bitcoin becomes 10x harder at a $1M BTC price versus $100k, as the capital required to buy the same BTC amount rises tenfold, and he advises to stack accordingly (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 15, 2025). For traders, this means maintaining the same dollar spend reduces BTC units acquired by about 90% at $1M compared with $100k, unless position sizing and DCA allocations are increased to match the higher price regime (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 15, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a key advantage of TradFi is that 5-day trading hours act as built-in risk management by preventing panic selling during off-hours such as 2 a.m. on Saturday (source: André Dragosch on X, Oct 11, 2025). According to Coinbase Help Center, crypto spot markets for assets like BTC and ETH operate 24/7, meaning there is no weekend market closure to enforce a cooling-off period (source: Coinbase Help Center).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the intraday Cryptoasset Sentiment Index printed a strong contrarian buying signal after dropping to an intraday low of -2.8 standard deviations, the weakest since the 2024 summer Yen carry trade unwind. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 11, 2025. The author frames the extreme bearish sentiment as a contrarian buy setup and says to stack accordingly. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 11, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the crypto implied volatility index DVOL spiked to almost 65, its highest level since the March 2025 tariff shock, indicating a massive jump in uncertainty and what he characterizes as max fear. Source: @Andre_Dragosch (X, Oct 11, 2025). A DVOL reading near 65 means the market is pricing materially larger 30-day moves and richer option premiums, raising hedging costs and volatility risk for crypto derivatives traders. Source: Deribit (DVOL index methodology).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should frame current BTC behavior around the US spot Bitcoin ETF launch timing as the regime-change anchor, source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch on Oct 8, 2025. US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading on Jan 11, 2024 after the SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETP rule changes on Jan 10, 2024, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approvals and listing notices from Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe. Because these ETFs trade during regular U.S. equity hours on Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe, liquidity and flow impacts are concentrated in the U.S. session, which is a trading consideration when assessing BTC trend and volatility since the launch, source: Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe trading schedules.

According to @Andre_Dragosch on X on Oct 8, 2025, correlations between Bitcoin and Gold are turning positive. He also states the ongoing rally in Gold is starting to positively affect cryptoassets, signaling a supportive cross-asset backdrop for BTC and broader crypto; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X on Oct 8, 2025. Based on this update, traders can monitor the BTC-Gold rolling correlation and Gold momentum as tactical signals for crypto beta; source: @Andre_Dragosch on X on Oct 8, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a Fractal Dimension signal has been clearly triggered as investors are panic-buying gold, indicating a near-term pullback risk in gold prices. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 8, 2025. He adds that some hard-money-seeking capital could rotate into Bitcoin (BTC), potentially affecting crypto market inflows in the short term. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 8, 2025.

According to André Dragosch, funds and public companies have purchased more BTC in 2025 than in all of 2024; source: André Dragosch, X, Oct 8, 2025. As of Oct 8, 2025, global bitcoin ETPs and public companies have acquired 944,330 BTC; source: André Dragosch, X, Oct 8, 2025. This year-to-date buying equals roughly 7.4 times the new BTC supply issued in 2025, indicating institutional net demand far exceeding issuance; source: André Dragosch, X, Oct 8, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin ETFs have taken a sizeable chunk of BTC transaction volumes off chain, indicating a migration of activity from on-chain transfers to ETF share trading venues. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1975070055768764525; reference: https://x.com/nondualrandy/status/1974966392467407185. For trading strategy, this means on-chain volume may understate total BTC market participation and should be cross-checked with ETF flow and turnover data when assessing liquidity. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1975070055768764525.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, global cryptoasset ETPs posted the highest weekly net inflows on record at $5.66B, with BTC products at +$3.49B, ETH at +$1.49B, alts ex-ETH at +$0.68B, and baskets/thematics at -$0.002B (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 6, 2025). Based on the figures reported by @Andre_Dragosch, BTC captured roughly 61.7% of weekly inflows and ETH about 26.3%, meaning around 88% of new ETP demand concentrated in BTC and ETH (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 6, 2025). The slight outflow in basket and thematic products contrasts with broad single-asset strength, highlighting rotation toward large-cap BTC and ETH ETPs that dominated weekly creations (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 6, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, citing a chart by FalconX's @dlawant, IBIT options open interest has surpassed Deribit BTC options open interest, indicating Bitcoin options activity is migrating toward traditional finance venues; source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch on Oct 6, 2025, citing FalconX/@dlawant. The source states the center of gravity is shifting to TradFi venues, underscoring that US-listed ETF options are taking a larger share of BTC risk transfer; source: @Andre_Dragosch quoting FalconX's @dlawant on X. For trading decisions, the reported OI leadership suggests liquidity concentration on IBIT options versus offshore venues, a factor traders can use when selecting execution venues and gauging flow distribution; source: characterization by @Andre_Dragosch citing FalconX/@dlawant on X.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, market participants are questioning the need to upgrade to Bitcoin Core v30 or Bitcoin Knots, citing concerns about both spamming and censorship on the BTC network. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 5, 2025. This highlights an active debate over node policy and relay rules in different Bitcoin implementations, which define which transactions are relayed or accepted into mempools and thereby shape fee formation and confirmation latency. Source: Bitcoin Core documentation on mempool policy and transaction relay rules. For trading, divergences or shifts in these policies can change network congestion and fee volatility, influencing on-chain liquidity, exchange deposit and withdrawal costs, and the BTC spot-futures basis. Source: Bitcoin Core fee estimation documentation and Bitcoin on-chain data. Actionable focus: monitor mempool size, effective feerates, and confirmation times via Bitcoin Core RPC (getmempoolinfo, estimatesmartfee), and track miner fee share of block rewards to assess potential tailwinds or headwinds for BTC transaction costs. Source: Bitcoin Core documentation and Bitcoin blockchain data.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin’s year-to-date return is 24.4% and is being used as the hurdle rate when reviewing top hedge fund performances YTD, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 3, 2025. Based on that 24.4% figure, funds must deliver more than 24.4% net YTD to outperform the stated benchmark, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 3, 2025. From the reported 24.4% YTD, the simple average pace to match BTC is roughly 2.7% per month year-to-date, illustrating the return cadence implied by the hurdle, source: derived from 24.4% YTD reported by @Andre_Dragosch on X, Oct 3, 2025.