According to @rovercrc, the trading thesis contrasts Bitcoin’s fixed 21,000,000 BTC cap with elastic fiat supply, highlighting a long-term scarcity case for BTC positioning (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million and the block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, reducing new issuance and net supply growth (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide). Major fiat currencies such as USD have no predetermined maximum supply; central banks can expand the monetary base via tools like open market operations and quantitative easing during policy easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve Education; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). For traders, the declining BTC issuance relative to expandable fiat supply is frequently cited in institutional allocation frameworks as a scarcity-driven rationale, while acknowledging BTC’s high volatility and macro liquidity sensitivity (source: Fidelity Digital Assets research; Federal Reserve research on liquidity conditions).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, recent market analysis challenges the historical 4-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies following Halving events, as outlined in his new book Exponential Gold. Traditionally, Bitcoin has shown significant price increases in the years surrounding Halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, but current observations suggest this pattern may be weakening (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Twitter, June 15, 2025). For traders, this signals the need to reconsider cycle-based trading strategies, as BTC price action may become less predictable and more influenced by external macroeconomic factors. This shift could impact volatility and timing for both short-term and long-term positions, making it crucial for market participants to closely monitor on-chain metrics and global financial developments for effective trade execution.