According to @KobeissiLetter, since 1927 in Year 1 of the U.S. presidential cycle, the S&P 500 has fallen 58% of the time in September with an average return of -1.62%, indicating a statistically weak month that equity traders often treat as risk-off seasonality (source: @KobeissiLetter). The post also references October as historically challenging but does not provide figures, keeping near-term focus on September’s downside tendency for tactical positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto, correlations have tightened in stress regimes, as Kaiko reported that BTC’s rolling correlation with U.S. equities exceeded 0.6 at points in 2022, implying potential spillover from equity weakness into BTC and ETH volatility (source: Kaiko Research). Additionally, CoinGlass shows that September has often produced negative monthly returns for BTC historically, reinforcing a cautious crypto risk framework when U.S. stocks enter weak seasonality (source: CoinGlass).