According to @BullTheoryio, the S&P 500 hit 6932 and posted its highest weekly close on record, signaling a strong risk-on backdrop in U.S. equities (source: @BullTheoryio). Historically, rising U.S. equities have coincided with higher crypto beta, with BTC and ETH increasingly correlated to the S&P 500 since 2020, transmitting equity momentum into digital assets during risk-on phases (source: IMF 2022 research; BIS 2022 analysis). For trading, watch whether SPX holds the reported 6932 weekly close as support and monitor the rolling BTC-SPX correlation plus equity volatility via VIX to gauge follow-through into BTC and ETH spot and futures liquidity (source: @BullTheoryio; IMF 2022 research; Cboe). Correlation regimes are time-varying and can reverse quickly, so position sizing and hedges should account for potential decoupling between crypto and stocks even after equity breakouts (source: IMF 2022 research; BIS 2022 analysis).

According to @BullTheoryio, US Q3 GDP printed 4.3% versus 3.3% expected, indicating stronger-than-forecast growth that they view as supportive for risk assets, including crypto. source: @BullTheoryio The author argues that continued strength could push the ISM Manufacturing PMI into expansion above 50, a regime they state historically aligned with bullish crypto performance and the last two major altseasons. source: @BullTheoryio ISM classifies PMI readings above 50 as expansion, which is the threshold referenced in the author’s thesis. source: Institute for Supply Management

According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped $2,500 in the last 4 hours, triggering $82 million in long liquidations and erasing $60 billion from the crypto market, while U.S. stocks added $465 billion and pushed toward new all-time highs (source: @BullTheoryio on X). According to @BullTheoryio, this move aligns with a recurring 10am manipulation pattern (source: @BullTheoryio on X).

According to @BullTheoryio, gold has reached a new all-time high and has historically led BTC during liquidity upcycles, with Bitcoin following after a lag. Source: @BullTheoryio. The source cites 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 as precedents where gold advanced first under improving liquidity or QE, then BTC accelerated once gold momentum weakened. Source: @BullTheoryio. For 2025, the source points to three Fed rate cuts, approximately 40 billion dollars per month in U.S. Treasury T-bill purchases, and record global money supply as signs of improving liquidity while gold trends strong and BTC lags, implying a potential rotation setup. Source: @BullTheoryio. The source adds that gold appears overbought near term, and a cooling in gold could precede a BTC outperformance phase similar to prior cycles. Source: @BullTheoryio. Market-cap context from the source notes BTC around 1.8 trillion dollars versus gold near 31 trillion dollars, with gold adding roughly 17 trillion dollars over the last two years. Source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, gold and silver hit new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near record highs, and the Dow posted a new all-time high, while Bitcoin (BTC) is down 28% from its peak and is having its worst Q4 in seven years, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, this BTC drawdown came without new negative news, FUD, or scandals, and the author alleges market manipulation as the cause, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the cross-asset divergence signals relative weakness in BTC versus U.S. equities and precious metals, a setup traders may monitor for rotation and correlation shifts into Q4, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, YTD 2025 returns show Silver +130%, Gold +65%, Copper +35%, Nasdaq +20%, S&P 500 +16%, and Russell 2000 +13%, while BTC -6%, ETH -12%, and altcoins -42% (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 20, 2025). The post states crypto is the worst-performing major asset in 2025, underscoring pronounced underperformance versus metals and US equities for traders tracking relative momentum and rotation (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 20, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, $7.1 trillion worth of US stock and ETF options expire today, marking the largest triple-witching event on record. According to @BullTheoryio, triple witching is a quarterly expiration that occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, concentrating expirations into a single session. According to @BullTheoryio, the day features three types of derivatives expiring on the same day, creating an unusually large notional roll-off in US equities and ETF options. According to @BullTheoryio, crypto-focused traders can treat today’s record US options expiry as a key calendar event to monitor alongside US market hours.

According to @BullTheoryio, the 8:30 a.m. lower-than-expected CPI print coincided with a $2,217 BTC move from $87,260 to $89,477 within 60 minutes, adding $70B to total crypto market cap and triggering $94M in short liquidations, source: @BullTheoryio. By 10:00 a.m., the account reports BTC then fell $3,723 from $89,363 to $85,640 over the next 90 minutes, erasing $117B in crypto market cap and liquidating $100M in longs, source: @BullTheoryio. The account characterizes the downside move as manipulation, while the data reflect a sharp intraday volatility spike around the CPI window, elevating liquidation risk for leveraged positions, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, the market assigns 98.4% odds to a 25 bps BOJ hike tomorrow, which would lift the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, Bitcoin fell 26% over the following 8 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.50% on Jan 24, 2025, Bitcoin declined 25% over 20 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, similar downside could occur around this decision, although past BOJ-driven BTC selloffs were followed by strong recoveries to new all-time highs, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC surged by $2,865 from $87,500 to $90,365 within 30 minutes following the 9:30 AM U.S. market open (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, roughly $80 billion was added to the overall crypto market during that same window (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, about $106 million in short positions were liquidated within 30 minutes (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, a recurring 10:00 AM move was again observed and characterized by the author as manipulation, highlighting time-specific volatility risk for intraday traders (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin jumped $3,300 and triggered $106 million in short liquidations within 30 minutes, then reversed with a $3,400 drop that liquidated $52 million in longs over the next 45 minutes. The back-to-back moves totaled $158 million in liquidations over 75 minutes based on figures shared by @BullTheoryio. The source characterized the sequence as evidence of intense market manipulation risk in crypto, according to @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Treasury conducted a $12.5 billion buyback of its own debt, described by the source as the largest such buyback in its history, which the source indicates tends to push bond yields lower and ease financial conditions. According to @BullTheoryio, the Federal Reserve is also starting T-bill purchases today, which the source says will add liquidity to the system and support risk assets. According to @BullTheoryio, the main immediate risk is the Bank of Japan interest rate decision; if no rate hike occurs, the source expects this backdrop to potentially trigger a crypto Santa rally, providing tailwinds for BTC and ETH.

According to @BullTheoryio, the account publicly thanked @fundstrat and @BitMNR as ETH bulls, signaling an explicitly positive Ethereum sentiment that traders may treat as a short-term social signal. Source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 11, 2025. No price levels, catalysts, or on-chain metrics were provided in the post, indicating sentiment-only information without actionable targets. Source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 11, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC erased the entire pre-FOMC pump within 12 hours as whales took profits after a widely expected rate cut and a $40B T-bill purchase plan that many traders had already front-run, triggering the first leg of the sell-off, source: @BullTheoryio. The post adds that Chair Powell highlighted a weak labor market and still-elevated inflation, while the Fed dot plot pointed to only one cut in 2026, increasing uncertainty and pressuring risk assets after the US cash close, source: @BullTheoryio. @BullTheoryio reports that Oracle’s Q2 missed adjusted revenue and guided higher capex, sending ORCL down 11–12% after hours, dragging US stock futures lower and spilling risk-off sentiment into crypto amid fears the AI trade is peaking, source: @BullTheoryio. The author summarizes five overlapping drivers: the cut was fully priced in, liquidity trades were front-run, Powell offered no strong easing signal, ORCL earnings hit AI/tech sentiment, and profit-taking accelerated as uncertainty rose, source: @BullTheoryio. Despite the dump, the post argues the broader backdrop remains supportive with three consecutive cuts, $40B in T-bill buys over the next 30 days, no hike as the base case, and softer labor data giving room to ease if needed, source: @BullTheoryio. The move is framed as expectations outrunning reality rather than a shift to bearish fundamentals, which keeps the liquidity narrative relevant for crypto even as positioning resets, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion of Treasury bills over the next 30 days starting December 12, 2025. Source: @BullTheoryio on X, December 10, 2025. Traders should seek official confirmation via the New York Fed’s SOMA purchase schedule, which publishes planned Treasury operations before execution. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, System Open Market Account (SOMA) operations disclosures. Bill purchases add bank reserves and can ease short-term funding conditions, a tool the Fed deployed in 2019 to maintain ample reserves while clarifying it was not QE. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statement on Treasury bill purchases, October 11, 2019. Periods of Fed balance sheet expansion have historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance, and BTC has tended to benefit during liquidity upswings. Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 Statistical Release (total assets, WALCL via FRED) and Bitcoin price series via FRED. If confirmed, increased bill buying would typically pressure front-end yields lower and weigh on the U.S. dollar, conditions associated with easier financial settings that have aligned with crypto risk-on episodes. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury (yield data), ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and BIS Quarterly Review 2022 on crypto’s sensitivity to global liquidity.

According to @BullTheoryio, the US Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 bps, a move framed as long-term bullish for markets. source: @BullTheoryio on X Traders should confirm the final target range and statement language via the Federal Reserve FOMC release before positioning. source: Federal Reserve Board FOMC communications Lower policy rates reduce short-term funding costs and ease financial conditions, dynamics that have historically supported risk assets including BTC and ETH during easing cycles. source: Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy resources; Kaiko research on crypto sensitivity to yields Key crypto signals to monitor after a reported cut: US 2-year Treasury yields and DXY trending lower, S&P 500 futures strength, and widening BTC and ETH futures basis and positive perp funding. source: TradingView market data; CME futures data; Deribit futures term structure; major exchange funding rate pages Risk management note: price action around the FOMC statement and chair remarks can be volatile; confirm timing and guidance tone before executing any strategy. source: Federal Reserve press conference schedule; Kaiko market microstructure notes on FOMC days

According to @BullTheoryio, the FOMC will release its interest rate decision today at 2 pm ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET. According to @BullTheoryio, a 25 bps cut is expected with roughly 90% odds. According to @BullTheoryio, a rate cut with clear guidance for further cuts or liquidity support could push markets higher, while a neutral tone could lead to a mixed reaction with short-term volatility. According to @BullTheoryio, hints of balance-sheet support or QE-style actions later in 2026 would be viewed as strong upside as markets price in future liquidity. According to @BullTheoryio, a hawkish tone tied to inflation concerns could trigger a market dump.

According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin (BTC) just broke $94,400 and is up $4,400 over the last 2 hours. source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 9, 2025. ETH (ETH) has reclaimed $3,350. source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 9, 2025. The total crypto market capitalization added $156 billion in the last 4 hours. source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 9, 2025. Over the same period, $254 million in short positions were liquidated, constituting a massive short squeeze. source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 9, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin surged from $90,000 to $93,000 in roughly 90 minutes, triggering about $140 million in short liquidations (source: @BullTheoryio). The author highlights a recurring 10 a.m. flow potentially tied to Jane Street, indicating a short-squeeze-driven momentum window that traders can monitor for breakout timing and liquidity conditions (source: @BullTheoryio). Given the liquidation-led spike, traders should account for slippage and reversal risk around $93,000 and calibrate momentum strategies to elevated volatility (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, markets price a 95% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut, but the primary volatility driver will be liquidity signals from Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on the economy, funding conditions, and inflation rather than the cut itself, source: @BullTheoryio. SOFR has been spiking, indicating bank funding stress and raising the odds that traders should watch for any liquidity relief from the Fed; even a hint of QE or short-term liquidity support would likely ease funding pressure, push bond yields lower, and add bullish momentum to risk assets including BTC, source: @BullTheoryio. A hawkish cut scenario (inflation not fully controlled and labor improving) risks a yield spike and a sell-off in risk assets, with the last hawkish FOMC coinciding with a sharp BTC drop, source: @BullTheoryio; a dovish cut scenario (minimal tariff impact on inflation and a weak labor market) would likely send yields down, lift liquidity expectations, and support a crypto pump, with dovish plus liquidity support turning strongly bullish, dovish only implying a smaller pump, a hawkish cut triggering an October-like sell-off, and no liquidity help keeping markets in sideways action, source: @BullTheoryio.