According to @BullTheoryio, the Nasdaq is approaching a new all-time high while BTC is down 27% and ETH is down 39% from their peaks, indicating a significant crypto–equity divergence that may set up a rotation trade as crypto lags equities. source: @BullTheoryio The author adds that the Russell 2000 is near its peak and equities have already priced in improving macro conditions and rising rate-cut odds, while crypto has not; if liquidity continues to improve and the rate-cut path stays supportive, the catch-up phase typically comes from BTC and ETH as the risk curve expands. source: @BullTheoryio

According to @BullTheoryio, altcoins are entering a 2019–2021-style setup as liquidity turns and quantitative tightening ends December 1, a pattern that previously preceded risk-asset recoveries, source: @BullTheoryio. In the 2019 analogue, alt-BTC pairs rose 80%–90% while BTC fell 50%–60%, and the subsequent QE phase fueled a sustained altcoin uptrend, source: @BullTheoryio. The roadmap outlined is two-phase: 6–8 months of alt-BTC outperformance followed by 12–18 months of alt-USD outperformance if macro stays supportive, source: @BullTheoryio. Cited macro tailwinds include mid-term election stimulus expectations, potential new Fed leadership skewing toward easing, 2026 rate cuts, possible QE if growth slows, improving household liquidity via tax benefits, and rising global liquidity, source: @BullTheoryio. The trading focus is on quality altcoins with product-market fit, revenue, real users, and sustainable models, with small caps likely leading risk-on, while narrative-only tokens may lag, source: @BullTheoryio. Actionably, traders can monitor alt-BTC strength as an early signal and scale into quality alts as liquidity inflects while tracking the QT-to-QE pivot timeline, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, September headline PPI printed 2.7% year over year versus 2.6% expected while core PPI eased to 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, signaling disinflation remains intact and keeping a December Fed rate cut on the table (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the broader backdrop of a weakening job market, cooling wage growth, slower hiring, softer consumer demand, and a three‑month downtrend in inflation strengthens the case for accelerated easing (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, this is a bullish setup that risk markets can trade, and crypto traders may view firmer rate‑cut odds as supportive for BTC and ETH via improving liquidity conditions and lower real‑yield pressure (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, MSCI issued a consultation on Oct 10 proposing that companies with digital assets equal to or above 50 percent of total assets and whose activity resembles a digital asset treasury could be excluded from MSCI global indexes, creating a structural methodology risk for Bitcoin proxy equities such as MicroStrategy MSTR, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. If such exclusions occur, index-tracking funds would be required to remove affected stocks, introducing potential forced selling that can transmit to BTC via the widely traded MSTR to BTC correlation, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. @BullTheoryio links this structural risk to the Oct 10 crypto drawdown amid high leverage and weak equities, contributing to outsized BTC liquidations despite limited contemporaneous macro news, source: @BullTheoryio. JPMorgan subsequently published a bearish note highlighting the same MSCI risk during thin liquidity and fragile sentiment, which the source argues intensified downside momentum, source: JPMorgan research note; @BullTheoryio. In response, Michael Saylor stated MicroStrategy is an operating software company with a BTC based treasury strategy rather than a passive fund, aiming to distinguish MSTR from the category under MSCI review, source: Michael Saylor public statement; @BullTheoryio. MSCI’s timeline indicates a final decision on January 15, 2026 with policy effectiveness in February 2026, creating clear event windows that markets may price over the next year, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. Trading implications include monitoring MSCI consultation updates, MSTR price action relative to BTC, and research driven sentiment shocks while adjusting position sizing and leverage into MSCI decision dates to mitigate index induced flow risk, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC is down 24.15% in November while the ALT/BTC ratio is up 9.44%, a rare divergence that signals altcoin seller exhaustion based on their chart analysis. According to @BullTheoryio, daily RSI is the lowest in 2 years, weekly RSI is back to January 2023 levels, and daily MACD has hit its lowest reading on record, readings the author says typically mark local bottoms. According to @BullTheoryio, when BTC transitions to sideways or a slow reversal, altcoins historically outperform in both BTC and USD pairs as positioning resets, leverage is cleared, and seller pressure fades. According to @BullTheoryio, traders should watch ALT/BTC breaking up from its base, BTC approaching major support with deeply oversold indicators, and BTC dominance struggling to rise during the dump as signals that liquidity is rotating toward higher-beta assets.

According to @BullTheoryio, the crypto market experienced what they describe as the largest liquidation event on record on October 10, with nearly $20B in positions wiped out in less than 24 hours, highlighting a regime shift in market structure (source: @BullTheoryio). They add that aggregating data from October 1 to the present further underscores a post-October 10 behavioral change, indicating traders should reassess leverage exposure and liquidation risk as conditions evolve (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, the crypto market suffered over $16.5B in liquidations within a single day on October 10 and more than $41B since October 1, which is unusually high without macro shocks, protocol failures, exchange collapses, or black-swan headlines, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 21, 2025. Despite equities recovering as the S&P 500 made new highs and NVIDIA reported strong earnings, crypto failed to stabilize with no meaningful bounce, relief rally, or rotation and continued a straight-down pattern of forced selling, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 21, 2025. Repeated waves of long liquidations have erased each attempted recovery, with concentrated intraday flushes of $100M to $1B in leveraged positions even on otherwise stable or green global market days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 21, 2025. This structural shift has persisted for roughly 45 days after October 10 as open interest collapsed and liquidity thinned across major pairs, with small price moves still triggering outsized liquidations, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 21, 2025. @BullTheoryio notes the pattern is consistent with either a major entity unwinding, structural deleveraging at large trading firms, or liquidity gaps from thin order books, but the cause remains unconfirmed and no large market participant has provided transparency, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, the S&P 500 erased about $1.5 trillion from its intraday high today, indicating a broad sell-off in equities (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 20, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin fell to $87,000 and total crypto market capitalization dropped below $2.95 trillion, marking notable downside pressure in digital assets (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 20, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, there were no negative headlines, policy surprises, recession warnings, tariffs, or weak earnings reported to explain a sell-off of this scale (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 20, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, NVIDIA, which represents roughly 8% of the S&P 500, posted a bullish earnings report yesterday, yet the subsequent pump has been fully retraced by today’s close (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 20, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC has closed below the weekly SMA50 that supported every major pullback this cycle, signaling a broader correction on the weekly chart (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the next major support is the weekly EMA100 near $85,587, a level BTC has not closed below since Q3 2023 and from which prior recovery rallies began (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, momentum has cooled with the weekly RSI resetting to the same zone seen in Q1 2023 near $20K and the weekly MACD flattening into its typical bottoming range observed in past correction phases (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, sentiment shows the Fear & Greed Index sitting below 20 for a week and funding turning negative for the first time in almost a month, a positioning pattern often seen near local bottoms though a confirmed bottom is not yet established (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, macro risks remain as Japanese bond yields stay elevated and the probability of a December Fed rate cut sits near ~35%, which could sustain volatility even if most structural damage appears priced in and BTC is likely close to a local bottom zone (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours as Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $90,000 for the first time in seven months (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 18, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, Japan is considering a 17 trillion yen approximately 110 billion dollars fiscal stimulus with cash support, tax relief and sector incentives, which has historically weakened the yen and pushed capital into higher return global risk assets, with Bitcoin BTC often leading the reaction because it prices liquidity faster than equities. Source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the United States backdrop is turning more liquidity friendly with the shutdown resolved, the Treasury General Account near 960 billion dollars and JPMorgan expecting about 300 billion dollars to flow out of the TGA over the next four weeks, while quantitative tightening is slowing and expected to end on December 1. Source: @BullTheoryio citing JPMorgan. According to @BullTheoryio, China is injecting over 1 trillion yuan per week into the economy, reinforcing a global shift toward easier liquidity compared with Q4 2021. Source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, these cross market liquidity drivers suggest the latest BTC pullback looks like a bear trap before a potential next move, with risk assets positioned to benefit first from the easing impulse. Source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, Nov 20 brings the delayed September Jobs Report where higher unemployment would lift early rate-cut odds and support risk assets including BTC, while a low jobless rate would keep the Fed patient and markets cautious, source: @BullTheoryio. Nov 26 delivers a Q3 GDP update alongside October personal income, spending, and PCE, where softer growth and inflation would ease policy expectations and aid crypto, while hot readings could pressure risk assets, source: @BullTheoryio. Dec 5 Non-Farm Payrolls becomes the first clean post-shutdown labor read, with weaker job growth supportive for crypto and equities and stronger hiring keeping volatility elevated, source: @BullTheoryio. Dec 10 CPI and Dec 11 PPI for November will shape Q1 2026 policy expectations, with falling inflation reinforcing rate-cut bets and liquidity improvement, while upside would sustain a tighter stance and near-term downside for risk assets, source: @BullTheoryio. Dec 19 wraps with final Q3 GDP, November personal income and spending, and existing home sales, where weak data would bring forward support and strong data would push the cut timeline out, source: @BullTheoryio. If the data skew risk-on, BTC could rally toward a new all-time high into Q1 2026, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, roughly $1.45 trillion in combined stock and crypto market cap was erased in 24 hours as risk assets sold off on three catalysts (source: @BullTheoryio on X). According to @BullTheoryio, BTC ran to 107k-108k on expectations the US government shutdown would end and then reversed on a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news move, sparking broad profit-taking across majors (source: @BullTheoryio on X). According to @BullTheoryio, the White House signaled October unemployment and economic data cannot be released, creating a perceived data blackout that markets interpret as rising recession risk and prompting risk-off positioning (source: @BullTheoryio on X). According to @BullTheoryio, corporate bonds tied to AI companies are being dumped, flagging unsustainable AI spending and transmitting equity stress into crypto (source: @BullTheoryio on X). According to @BullTheoryio, the sequence is stocks down and crypto down more, wiping out hundreds of billions quickly, with a higher likelihood of swift policy response if both markets slide together (source: @BullTheoryio on X).

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. House is scheduled to vote around 7 PM ET on the same funding bill already passed by the Senate, and if approved, President Trump is expected to sign it within hours to reopen the government (source: @BullTheoryio). The author states federal agencies would reopen, furloughed workers would return with back pay, and government contracts and payments would resume, restoring fiscal activity (source: @BullTheoryio). The author further claims the Treasury could release over $950B from the Treasury General Account that has been idle since October, adding a significant liquidity impulse to the system (source: @BullTheoryio). The author suggests this liquidity wave tends to favor risk-on assets, implying Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto could react positively as liquidity returns (source: @BullTheoryio). Traders may monitor BTC price action into and after the 7 PM ET vote window as liquidity expectations reprice in real time (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, House Speaker Mike Johnson said the 40+ day U.S. government shutdown will officially end tonight following a House vote on the Senate-passed funding bill (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 12, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, the Trump Administration backs the measure and President Trump will sign it to reopen the government tonight (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 12, 2025). For traders, the immediate catalyst window is the House vote and potential signing tonight, with risk sentiment in BTC and ETH likely to react around the headline timing if the resolution is executed as reported (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 12, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent outlined two stimulus initiatives aimed at households and markets: a $2,000 direct rebate for families earning under $100,000, delivered via tax credit or cash to boost short-term spending and liquidity, and a Trump Accounts program granting every child born from January 1, 2025, for three years a $1,000 investment account automatically invested in U.S. equities (source: @BullTheoryio, Nov 12, 2025). The post states both plans would be financed through recent tax reform, creating consistent equity inflows and strengthening risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio). It further asserts that easing fiscal policy and new liquidity historically support Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto markets, positioning the initiatives as a potential near-term risk-on catalyst if implemented as described (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, an Ethereum upgrade dubbed Fusaka is claimed to go live on Dec 3, lifting block gas capacity to 150M from 45M and adding PeerDAS and Verkle Trees to make Layer-2 transactions cheaper and verification lighter, which they say could raise ETH fee burn and demand. Source: @BullTheoryio. There is no official Ethereum Foundation or AllCoreDevs confirmation of a mainnet upgrade named Fusaka or a Dec 3 date in publicly documented materials through late 2024, and Verkle Trees did not have a finalized mainnet activation timeline in those sources. Sources: Ethereum Foundation blog; Ethereum AllCoreDevs updates. The claim that a prior upgrade called Pectra triggered a 50% weekly ETH rally conflicts with recorded upgrade history, where Shanghai/Capella occurred in April 2023 and Dencun in March 2024, with no mainnet Pectra executed in that period. Source: Ethereum Foundation blog release history. Trading takeaway: treat Dec 3 as an unverified catalyst; before positioning, confirm an official announcement plus client release notes with a mainnet fork block number across multiple clients such as Geth and Nethermind, and monitor ETH spot, funding, and options implied volatility for rumor-driven swings. Sources: Ethereum client teams’ release process documented by Geth and Nethermind; Ethereum Foundation blog; @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. House plans a Wednesday 4 PM EST vote to end the government shutdown after 42 days, giving traders a defined event time to monitor (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 11, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, once the government reopens, clear data will resume and remove bearish uncertainty weighing on markets (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Nov 11, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, the US Senate Agriculture Committee has released a crypto market structure draft bill that formally defines digital commodities and gives the CFTC primary authority over their trading, clarifying jurisdiction previously disputed with the SEC (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the draft implies BTC, ETH, and major altcoins will gain regulatory clarity in US spot and derivatives markets (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, developers and blockchain infrastructure providers would be protected from being treated as money transmitters or brokers, reducing legal risk for node operators and smart contract deployers (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, a Digital Commodity Retail Office would be created inside the CFTC to support market transparency and investor protection, improving oversight of exchanges and retail-facing platforms (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the bill mandates cooperation with foreign regulators to align global standards, a factor institutions have been waiting for to scale compliant participation (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, if enacted, the CFTC would become crypto’s primary regulator for spot markets, exchanges, and derivatives, a development the source characterizes as a green light for institutional capital and potential altcoin ETF products (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Treasury and IRS have announced that crypto exchange-traded products can stake digital assets and distribute staking rewards directly to retail investors. Source: @BullTheoryio post on X dated Nov 10, 2025. The author also states this change would boost demand for Ethereum (ETH), implying supportive flows for ETH-linked ETPs if implemented. Source: @BullTheoryio post on X dated Nov 10, 2025. Traders should seek official confirmation on the U.S. Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service newsroom pages before repositioning, as policy changes are typically published there. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury Newsroom; Internal Revenue Service Newsroom. If confirmed, trading checks include monitoring ETH spot futures basis and open interest, ETP creation redemption activity, and any amended prospectuses detailing staking mechanics. Source: CME Group ETH futures data; ETP issuer updates; SEC EDGAR filings.