According to @jchervinsky, many of the highest-demand crypto products are or may be derivatives regulated by the CFTC, but most cannot comply with the Commodity Exchange Act because it was not written for DeFi or onchain finance (source: Jake Chervinsky on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to @jchervinsky, harsh penalties under current law lead most crypto derivatives products to geofence the United States (source: Jake Chervinsky on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to @jchervinsky, the CFTC can fix this by adopting new rules that allow DeFi and onchain derivatives to compete in the free market, asserting there is no legitimate policy reason to ban crypto-powered derivatives in the United States (source: Jake Chervinsky on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to @jchervinsky, these products address key CFTC risk concerns with better technology than TradFi, U.S. taxpayers show strong demand for access, and outcomes depend on policy choices by CFTC leadership, with him expressing hope that Mike Selig will take the seat soon (source: Jake Chervinsky on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @jchervinsky, the prediction market sector is set to become more competitive than the current Polymarket versus Kalshi dynamic as multiple new companies and products enter the space. source: @jchervinsky on X, Nov 20, 2025 He adds that recent platform success attracted builders and that new CFTC leadership will be a key catalyst to watch over the next few years. source: @jchervinsky on X, Nov 20, 2025 For trading strategy, monitor new exchange launches, product rollouts, and CFTC leadership updates as leading indicators for shifts in event-contract availability, liquidity, and pricing dynamics across prediction markets. source: @jchervinsky on X, Nov 20, 2025

According to @iampaulgrewal, Mike Selig participated in a nomination hearing for CFTC Chair and was described as pro-innovation and pro–market structure, with a call for swift confirmation. Source: @iampaulgrewal on X, Nov 19, 2025. The CFTC regulates U.S. derivatives markets and has stated it oversees digital asset derivatives and polices spot-market fraud and manipulation, including identifying BTC and ETH as commodities in enforcement and testimony. Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission public statements and enforcement posture; Testimony of CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam before the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, 2023. CME lists Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures and options that fall under CFTC oversight, making leadership outcomes relevant for U.S. crypto derivatives market structure. Source: CME Group product listings; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight of derivatives markets. No policy change was announced in the post; confirmation remains pending, and any adjustments to crypto derivatives oversight would occur through formal CFTC actions such as rulemaking, staff guidance, or enforcement. Source: @iampaulgrewal on X, Nov 19, 2025; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission rulemaking and guidance procedures.

According to @cas_abbe, the U.S. government shutdown has officially ended after 43 days as President Trump signed the bill, allowing federal agencies, markets, and pending decisions to move forward, source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 13, 2025. For crypto traders, the reopening enables the SEC and CFTC to resume normal operations on digital asset rulemaking, filings, and enforcement actions that require active staff review, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; Commodity Futures Trading Commission. With agencies back online, regulatory filings, public comment windows, and scheduled economic releases that inform trading calendars can proceed again, restoring previously paused timelines that market participants track for headline risk in BTC and ETH, source: USA.gov; U.S. SEC; U.S. CFTC.

According to the source, CFTC’s Caroline Pham said the regulator may approve leveraged spot crypto trading in the United States as soon as next month after discussions with licensed exchanges. source: public remarks reported on X on Nov 11, 2025 If approved, US registered venues could offer margin-enabled spot pairs for BTC and ETH under CFTC oversight, expanding regulated leverage access for US traders. source: Commodity Exchange Act 7 U.S.C. 2(c)(2)(D) on leveraged retail commodity transactions and CFTC oversight Traders should monitor CFTC product approvals and exchange rule submissions disclosed through the Part 40 process ahead of launch timelines. source: CFTC Part 40 rule filing and self-certification process

According to @AltcoinDaily, the U.S. Senate has released a draft crypto market structure bill, but the post does not include a bill number, committee name, or a link to the draft text. Source: Altcoin Daily on X, Nov 11, 2025. Traders should confirm the draft’s existence and details on primary sources that publish official texts and schedules, including Congress.gov and relevant U.S. Senate committee pages. Source: Congress.gov; U.S. Senate official committees. U.S. market regulators caution that digital asset markets are high-risk and news-driven, so waiting for the official text before adjusting BTC and ETH exposure aligns with regulator guidance to verify information and understand risks. Source: U.S. CFTC Customer Advisories on digital assets; U.S. SEC Office of Investor Education investor alerts. When the draft is posted, assess any sections on asset classification and market oversight, as those determine SEC and CFTC jurisdiction and exchange obligations under existing securities and commodities laws. Source: U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs jurisdiction; U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry jurisdiction.

According to @iampaulgrewal, Judge Corley determined that the court lacks jurisdiction to decide whether Kalshi’s event contracts violate the Commodity Exchange Act and that such determinations belong to the CFTC, which has exclusive jurisdiction over its contract markets. Source: @iampaulgrewal. For traders, this channels compliance and listing risk for Kalshi-style event contracts through CFTC processes and decisions rather than federal court, making CFTC rulemaking, guidance, and enforcement the primary drivers to monitor. Source: @iampaulgrewal.

According to @cryptorover, the CFTC Chairman has announced approval to launch Bitcoin trading on U.S. exchanges, describing it as breaking news; source: @cryptorover on X, Nov 10, 2025. According to @cryptorover, the post provides no supporting CFTC order number, press release link, or official statement, and does not name specific exchanges or an effective date; source: @cryptorover on X, Nov 10, 2025. According to @cryptorover, the claim references U.S. exchanges broadly without identifying which venues would list Bitcoin for trading, leaving operational details unspecified for traders; source: @cryptorover on X, Nov 10, 2025.

According to @EleanorTerrett, seven Senate Democrats and Independent Sen Angus King joined Republicans to reach the 60 votes required to invoke cloture, ending a weeks long stalemate and advancing a government funding vote. According to Chad Pergram, the follow up vote could come as soon as tomorrow. According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission Operations Plan for a Lapse in Appropriations, most registration reviews, rulemaking and some enforcement are curtailed during a shutdown and resume when funding is restored. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Lapse in Appropriations Plan, staffing and market oversight return to normal upon funding, affecting derivatives surveillance and approvals relevant to crypto markets. According to the SEC and CFTC contingency plans, a reopening would restore processing timelines that matter for crypto related filings and oversight, a near term catalyst for BTC and ETH traders.

According to the source, CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham has called for a time-limited CFTC pilot program to support responsible innovation in digital-asset markets, indicating potential avenues for new market structures relevant to leveraged spot crypto trading. Source: CFTC, Statement of Commissioner Caroline D. Pham on the Need for a Time-Limited CFTC Pilot Program (2023). Under existing U.S. rules, leveraged or margined retail spot crypto transactions are treated as retail commodity transactions unless actual delivery occurs within 28 days, which has constrained U.S. exchanges from offering retail margin on assets like BTC and ETH. Source: CFTC, Final Interpretive Guidance on Actual Delivery for Digital Assets (2020). CFTC enforcement, including the 2021 settlement with Kraken over illegal off-exchange margined retail commodity transactions in digital assets, underscores the current limitations on leveraged spot offerings without proper registration or actual delivery. Source: CFTC, Press Release 8470-21 (2021). Traders should monitor the Federal Register and the CFTC public docket for any pilot-program notices, exemptive relief, or rulemakings that could change leverage availability on U.S. spot exchanges and impact BTC and ETH liquidity. Source: Federal Register, CFTC rulemaking notices; CFTC.gov press room.

According to the source, CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham is pushing to enable leveraged spot crypto trading on U.S. exchanges as early as next month (source: user-provided post). This information requires confirmation from a primary source such as a CFTC press release, public speech transcript, or a Federal Register notice before drawing trading conclusions (source: CFTC rulemaking and public statements are the authoritative record). Provide an official citation to evaluate potential impacts on BTC and ETH liquidity, basis spreads, and exchange leverage policies (source: CFTC and Federal Register are the definitive sources for regulatory changes).

According to the source, this request cannot be completed under the stated constraints because the provided author is a competing crypto media outlet. To deliver a trading-focused, fully cited brief, please share primary, verifiable sources such as: the GENIUS Act bill page on congress.gov (bill text, status, votes), official White House or U.S. Treasury releases on digital asset policy, SEC or CFTC rulemakings/enforcement dockets, and Federal Register notices. With those documents, the analysis will quantify regulatory timelines, agency scope changes, and likely market impacts on BTC and ETH liquidity, funding rates, implied volatility, and regulatory risk premia, with each statement tied to its official source.

According to @cryptorover, a U.S. government shutdown is now expected to last into mid to late November. According to the U.S. SEC Operations Plan for a Lapse in Appropriations, most registrations, rulemakings, examinations, and normal enforcement are paused during a shutdown, which can delay reviews of exchange and ETF filings related to digital assets (source: U.S. SEC). According to the CFTC contingency plan for a lapse in appropriations, the agency maintains only essential market surveillance and enforcement, reducing routine oversight of crypto-linked futures and options (source: CFTC). According to the Federal Reserve, the Fed continues normal operations during a government shutdown because it is not funded by congressional appropriations (source: Federal Reserve). According to the U.S. Treasury, debt management operations financed by permanent appropriations, including marketable securities auctions and payments, continue during a shutdown (source: U.S. Treasury). According to the SEC and CFTC plans, timing of regulatory actions may be delayed, while, according to the Federal Reserve, monetary operations continue.

According to @EleanorTerrett, HouseAgGOP Chair GT Thompson spoke Thursday with Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham on how the commodities regulator is preparing for expanded crypto jurisdiction and rulemakings next year, anticipating passage of market structure legislation, source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Oct 31, 2025. The discussion follows Pham’s meeting last week with Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman on similar matters, source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Oct 31, 2025. A key outstanding question is how much appropriations the agency will require for the additional oversight, source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Oct 31, 2025. Further details are expected Monday in the CryptoAmerica newsletter, source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Oct 31, 2025.

According to @PANewsCN citing Bloomberg, prediction market platform Kalshi is receiving venture capital approaches for a $10–12 billion valuation range (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN). Bloomberg, via @PANewsCN, reports this follows a $300 million round at a $5 billion valuation led by a16z and Sequoia a few weeks earlier and a $185 million round at a $2 billion valuation led by Paradigm in June (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN). Kalshi did not respond to requests for comment (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN). The CFTC has allowed Kalshi to list more event contracts, while state-level gambling oversight remains disputed (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN). Kalshi states its annualized trading volume has reached $50 billion (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN). Competitor Polymarket has received up to $2 billion in investment from ICE, with a valuation around $8 billion (source: Bloomberg via @PANewsCN).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Robinhood (HOOD) will add 100+ new Kalshi prediction markets on its platform in the coming week, signaling an imminent expansion of event-contract trading access for retail users, source: @StockMKTNewz on X dated 2025-10-17 and the referenced RobinhoodApp post on X. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated designated contract market for event contracts, ensuring listings are under U.S. derivatives oversight, source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Designated Contract Markets list and Kalshi exchange disclosures. Kalshi’s product set includes macro event markets such as CPI releases and FOMC outcomes that are commonly used to trade or hedge data risk, source: Kalshi market catalog and product descriptions. For crypto impact, BTC and ETH volatility tends to rise around CPI and FOMC windows, making event contracts relevant for traders positioning around those catalysts, source: CME Group research on Bitcoin volatility around macro events; Robinhood offers crypto trading including BTC and ETH, source: Robinhood Crypto product page.

According to the source, a social post claims Kraken agreed to buy a small US exchange for 100 million dollars to support a US derivatives trading launch. Source: user-provided social media link. The post includes no primary confirmation from Kraken or US regulators, so the claim remains unverified within the provided materials and should not drive positioning until official disclosures are available. Source: user-provided social media link. Kraken previously expanded into crypto derivatives for non US clients via its 2019 acquisition of Crypto Facilities, which operates Kraken Futures. Source: Kraken company blog and press materials. US listed crypto derivatives require oversight by the CFTC via regulated venues such as designated contract markets or swap execution facilities, so any confirmed acquisition enabling US derivatives would need to comply with CFTC rules. Source: US CFTC public regulatory framework. Until confirmation, traders can monitor CME BTC and ETH futures basis, perpetual funding rates, and open interest as proxies for competition driven pricing shifts in US venues. Source: CME Group publishes BTC and ETH futures market data.

According to the source, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have pledged closer cooperation and harmonization on crypto and broader market oversight, signaling tighter alignment on supervision and enforcement that traders should track for headline risk and compliance changes (source: the source). According to SEC and CFTC cooperation frameworks, the agencies already maintain information-sharing and coordinated oversight under formal memoranda and joint workstreams, and expanded harmonization would streamline treatment of digital asset spot and derivatives markets, affecting exchange compliance, token classification, and market structure timelines (source: SEC.gov; CFTC.gov). According to prior CFTC congressional testimony and SEC public statements, the CFTC oversees crypto derivatives while the SEC asserts jurisdiction over many token offerings deemed securities, so interagency alignment can materially influence listings, leverage, and liquidity across U.S.-exposed crypto venues (source: CFTC.gov testimony; SEC.gov public statements).

According to the source, CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham stated the regulator is "alive and well" and urged "no more FUD," a direct signal intended to quell uncertainty around U.S. crypto oversight, source: Caroline D. Pham public social media remarks dated Sep 29, 2025. Traders can treat this clarity message as a near-term sentiment stabilizer around regulatory headlines and monitor BTC and ETH liquidity, implied volatility, and basis during U.S. hours for positioning shifts, source: trading analysis anchored to Caroline D. Pham public social media remarks dated Sep 29, 2025.

According to @AggrNews, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will allow stablecoins to be used as tokenized collateral in U.S. derivatives. Source: @AggrNews. This expands the types of assets that can be posted as collateral in CFTC-regulated markets, a trading-relevant change for margin and risk management. Source: @AggrNews. No details on eligible stablecoins, venues, or effective date were provided in the cited post, so traders should await official CFTC guidance for implementation specifics. Source: @AggrNews.