According to @rovercrc, the biggest altseason is about to begin on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates and inject liquidity, source: @rovercrc on X. This is an opinion rather than an official policy signal and traders should verify against FOMC statements and the Fed calendar before positioning, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Check market implied rate cut probabilities using the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge how much easing is priced into BTC and altcoins, source: CME Group FedWatch. Monitor USD liquidity proxies such as the U.S. Treasury General Account and the Fed Overnight Reverse Repo balances to assess net liquidity conditions for risk assets, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury FiscalData; source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track broader financial conditions that correlate with risk asset performance using the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. For crypto rotation timing, watch BTC dominance trending lower and total crypto market cap ex BTC expanding as signs of altseason breadth, source: TradingView; source: CoinMarketCap. Key macro catalysts that can invalidate an altseason thesis include CPI and employment releases that may shift Fed expectations, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to @rovercrc, Jerome Powell confirmed the Federal Reserve is moving away from its 2% inflation target, implying more persistent inflation and a bullish setup for Bitcoin (BTC) in his view (source: @rovercrc on X). This claim is not corroborated by any official Federal Reserve transcript or press release at the time of writing, and the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals defines a 2% longer-run PCE inflation objective (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). For trading verification, monitor the Federal Reserve speeches and press releases for the relevant text and track rate expectations via CME FedWatch alongside BTC price and volume to gauge positioning (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; CME Group). Until there is official confirmation, treat this as headline risk and watch the dollar index (DXY) and U.S. 2-year Treasury yields for signs of repricing that could drive near-term BTC volatility and liquidity shifts (source: CME Group; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

According to @rovercrc, a Fed rate cut would be a powerful bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Historically, outcomes have depended on the macro context: after the emergency cuts to 0–0.25% and the restart of asset purchases on March 15, 2020, BTC gained over 100% by August 2020 and more than 400% by year-end 2020, reflecting a liquidity-driven bid for risk assets (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 2020-03-15; BTC-USD daily prices from Yahoo Finance). In contrast, during the 2019 mid-cycle cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30, BTC fell roughly 30% from July 31 to December 31, 2019 before its longer-term uptrend resumed, underscoring that not every cut triggers an immediate rally (sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements 2019-07-31, 2019-09-18, 2019-10-30; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data). Macro transmission matters for crypto beta: BTC’s rolling correlation has been negative versus the U.S. Dollar Index and positive versus the Nasdaq 100 through much of 2022–2023, implying a weaker USD and easier financial conditions tend to support BTC, while risk-off in equities can weigh on it even during easing cycles (source: Kaiko research, 2023; ICE U.S. Dollar Index overview). For positioning around an eventual cut, traders commonly monitor Fed cut odds via CME FedWatch, the DXY trend, and U.S. real yields as proxied by 10-year TIPS yields to gauge liquidity and risk appetite shifts that spill over to BTC (sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Federal Reserve Economic Data for Treasury real yields).