According to the source, a U.S. federal shutdown would force the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls) release because BLS suspends data collection and publication during a lapse in appropriations, which is outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan. According to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, labor market conditions are a key input to data‑dependent policy, and traders recalibrate rate‑cut odds after the jobs report using fed funds futures, as described by CME Group’s FedWatch methodology. According to the Cboe Options Institute, uncertainty around the timing of major macro releases tends to lift implied volatility, and crypto has become sensitive to U.S. macro conditions, according to IMF research showing stronger co-movement with broader risk assets.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to the source, a social media post attributed a statement to Michael Novogratz that a dovish Federal Reserve chair could drive Bitcoin (BTC) materially higher; the specific 200,000 dollar target in that post cannot be independently verified here. source: public X post dated 2025-09-27 In trading terms, a dovish shift typically means lower policy rates or slower balance sheet runoff, easing financial conditions that historically support risk assets including crypto. source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements and H.4.1 factors affecting reserve balances Traders can gauge policy path via market implied odds to anticipate crypto beta, using CME FedWatch to track expected rate cuts that often move USD and risk momentum. source: CME Group FedWatch Tool Two macro confirmation signals for BTC risk-on are declining U.S. real yields and expanding Fed balance sheet, which traders monitor as liquidity and discount-rate proxies. source: U.S. Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates; Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release Execution-wise, watch DXY trend and U.S. 2-year yield breaks for potential BTC directional triggers around policy communication windows. source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index factsheet; U.S. Treasury daily yield data Key risk is a hawkish surprise or sticky inflation that keeps policy restrictive, which has historically pressured risk assets and increased crypto volatility. source: Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and Summary of Economic Projections

According to the source, Bitcoin BTC hovered above 111,000 dollars as traders waited for U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Source: X post dated Sep 25, 2025. The Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is a key inflation gauge referenced by the FOMC in policy assessments, making it a critical catalyst for risk assets including BTC. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve FOMC statement. Into and after the print, market-implied policy probabilities can be tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge rate hike or cut expectations that often drive BTC volatility. Source: CME Group. For positioning, traders commonly monitor the U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield for macro risk cues around the data window. Source: ICE Data Indices for DXY; U.S. Department of the Treasury.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, to deliver one additional rate cut in 2025. Source: https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1971254396630790228 For traders, monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and BTC/ETH reaction, as easing policy expectations have historically aligned with softer financial conditions and stronger risk-asset performance when real yields and the dollar fall. Sources: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates; https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures; https://coinmetrics.io/state-of-the-network

According to the source, US spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs climbed with solid late-week net inflows as traders priced higher odds of Fed rate cuts into year-end, per CME FedWatch probabilities and Farside Investors ETF flow trackers. However, roughly $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations over the last 24 hours highlights elevated leverage and sets up a Monday cash-session reality check for BTC and ETH, per CoinGlass derivatives data. For confirmation, traders should track US ETF creations/redemptions and net flows after the close, CME front-month basis, and NAV premiums/discounts, per Bloomberg ETF flow data and CME futures term structure.

According to @AltcoinGordon, the post highlights retail traders with small crypto balances waiting for Jerome Powell to cut rates, underscoring how crypto positioning is keyed to Federal Reserve policy shifts, source: @AltcoinGordon. FOMC decisions and statements set the policy rate and shape financial conditions that transmit to asset prices, turning Fed days into high-volatility events for BTC and ETH, source: Federal Reserve. Research shows Bitcoin’s correlation with equities strengthened post‑2020, implying macro policy shocks like rate changes can spill over into crypto returns, source: International Monetary Fund. For trading, monitor CME FedWatch rate probabilities, BTC/ETH options implied volatility and skew on Deribit, and funding rates plus open interest via analytics to manage event risk around FOMC, source: CME Group; source: Deribit; source: Glassnode.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are evaluating whether a potential Federal Reserve rate cut is already reflected in BTC price and positioning, and a practical way to validate this is to compare CME FedWatch implied probabilities with the latest FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections to see if the market implied path aligns with Fed guidance, source: CME Group and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Cross asset confirmation for a priced in cut includes a weaker US Dollar Index and lower US two year Treasury yields into and after the decision window, which are typical market responses to easier policy, source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and US Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED for yields. Derivatives signals consistent with full pricing in include neutral to negative BTC perpetual funding rates, a compressed basis between spot and futures, and moderating open interest that together imply limited incremental long leverage, source: Glassnode, Deribit, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Spot demand checks should focus on daily creations or redemptions in US spot Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund to see if net inflows persist beyond rate expectations, source: iShares, Fidelity, and Cboe BZX Exchange issuer disclosures. Options markets that show lower implied volatility and a softening downside skew into the event with muted realized volatility after the announcement indicate expectations were embedded ahead of time, source: Deribit and Laevitas. If BTC underperforms high beta equities following a dovish outcome, that relative move can signal the rate cut was anticipated by crypto relative to stocks, source: S and P Dow Jones Indices and Nasdaq.

According to @rovercrc, Donald Trump said Chair Powell must cut interest rates now and by more than initially planned, calling it “too late.” Source: Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) on X, Sep 15, 2025. An immediate, larger-than-expected Fed cut has historically lifted risk asset valuations by lowering discount rates, which can spill over to crypto beta. Source: NBER, Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) “What Explains the Stock Market’s Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?”. Crypto markets have become increasingly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy and broader risk sentiment, heightening responsiveness to rate surprises. Source: BIS Bulletin No. 57 (2022) “Crypto shocks and retail losses”. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch rate probabilities and front-end Treasury yields for confirmation of easing expectations and potential BTC and ETH volatility shifts. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).

According to @rovercrc, President Trump believes the Federal Reserve will deliver a big rate cut this week and frames it as bullish for markets, source: @rovercrc. Rate decisions are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee and become official only when communicated by the FOMC, not the White House, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. If a cut occurs, looser policy generally eases financial conditions and supports liquidity transmission that can favor risk assets such as BTC and ETH, source: Federal Reserve Board materials on monetary policy transmission. For trade validation, monitor three signals: front-end Treasury yields and fed funds futures pricing for cuts, the US Dollar Index direction, and BTC perpetual funding plus open interest to gauge leverage, source: CME Group FedWatch and futures data, ICE Data Indices for DXY, and exchange derivatives dashboards such as CME and major crypto venues. Until an official FOMC statement confirms a move, treat this as unverified headline risk and adjust position sizing and stops accordingly, source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements archive.

According to @AltcoinGordon, imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts followed by a restart of quantitative easing could spark a powerful crypto bull run and require early positioning to avoid being sidelined, which is an opinion and not an official policy signal. source: @AltcoinGordon on X The latest published Federal Reserve projections outlined a gradual path of potential rate reductions and did not announce QE, so traders should anchor plans to official FOMC statements and projections rather than assumptions. source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections June 2024; Federal Reserve Board, balance sheet normalization communications 2022–2024 Historically, during the 2020–2021 QE phase, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded from roughly 4.2 trillion dollars to about 8.7 trillion dollars while BTC rose from around 7,000 dollars in January 2020 to about 69,000 dollars in November 2021, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to liquidity. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data To verify any shift toward QE, monitor the weekly H.4.1 release for sustained increases in securities holdings, which would indicate balance sheet expansion rather than ongoing runoff. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release For rate-path confirmation, use the FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections at each meeting and cross-check market-implied probabilities via the CME FedWatch Tool as a real-time gauge. source: Federal Reserve Board FOMC statements and SEP; CME FedWatch Tool If the Fed formally signals easing, historical precedent suggests higher beta in BTC and ETH with stronger volumes and liquidity, whereas policy disappointment during the 2022–2023 tightening coincided with crypto drawdowns. source: Federal Reserve monetary policy communications 2020–2023; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD historical data Risk management should assume QT may persist without a QE restart, which would keep systemic liquidity tighter than in 2020–2021 and cap upside for higher-beta altcoins relative to BTC and ETH. source: Federal Reserve Board balance sheet runoff communications 2022–2024; Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release

According to @rovercrc, next week’s FOMC could feature a rate cut alongside fresh economic projections and the Fed’s dot plot, which would clarify how many policy cuts officials see this year and beyond. Source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 14, 2025. The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot at projection meetings to show participants’ expected paths for the federal funds rate, growth, unemployment, and inflation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections. For trading, focus on the dot plot median for the current and next two years, the longer-run rate, and updates to core PCE inflation projections, as these drive rate-path repricing that can swing BTC and ETH via funding costs and liquidity conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report. Traders commonly gauge rate-cut odds using the CME FedWatch Tool and adjust positioning around the FOMC statement and the Chair’s press conference, with crypto markets reacting to shifts in yields and the US dollar after policy surprises. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System communications. Event risk typically lifts implied volatility into FOMC weeks across futures and options, warranting careful position sizing and hedging. Source: CME Group derivatives market education.

According to @rovercrc, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed rate cuts, and the trader projects Bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $10,000 based on an X post dated Sep 11, 2025. source: @rovercrc on X. The post provides no official Federal Reserve documentation, so treat this as unverified until corroborated by an FOMC statement, Fed press release, or congressional testimony transcript. source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. For trading, monitor CME FedWatch rate-cut probabilities, U.S. 2y and 10y Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and BTC/ETH perpetual funding and open interest to confirm a dovish repricing before taking directional risk. source: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Coinglass.

According to @rovercrc, U.S. money supply is rising and Bitcoin could be the next beneficiary. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED, the M2 series M2SL and its 3‑month annualized trend are the primary confirmations traders should check before positioning. According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, Bitcoin tends to perform better when liquidity expands and real yields fall, so traders can monitor M2 momentum alongside 10‑year TIPS real yields and rate‑cut odds from CME FedWatch to time entries. According to Glassnode analytics, changes in exchange flows and stablecoin supply growth can validate whether macro liquidity is actually rotating into crypto risk assets like BTC.

According to @rovercrc, the biggest altseason is about to begin on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates and inject liquidity, source: @rovercrc on X. This is an opinion rather than an official policy signal and traders should verify against FOMC statements and the Fed calendar before positioning, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Check market implied rate cut probabilities using the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge how much easing is priced into BTC and altcoins, source: CME Group FedWatch. Monitor USD liquidity proxies such as the U.S. Treasury General Account and the Fed Overnight Reverse Repo balances to assess net liquidity conditions for risk assets, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury FiscalData; source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track broader financial conditions that correlate with risk asset performance using the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. For crypto rotation timing, watch BTC dominance trending lower and total crypto market cap ex BTC expanding as signs of altseason breadth, source: TradingView; source: CoinMarketCap. Key macro catalysts that can invalidate an altseason thesis include CPI and employment releases that may shift Fed expectations, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to @rovercrc, Jerome Powell confirmed the Federal Reserve is moving away from its 2% inflation target, implying more persistent inflation and a bullish setup for Bitcoin (BTC) in his view (source: @rovercrc on X). This claim is not corroborated by any official Federal Reserve transcript or press release at the time of writing, and the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals defines a 2% longer-run PCE inflation objective (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). For trading verification, monitor the Federal Reserve speeches and press releases for the relevant text and track rate expectations via CME FedWatch alongside BTC price and volume to gauge positioning (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; CME Group). Until there is official confirmation, treat this as headline risk and watch the dollar index (DXY) and U.S. 2-year Treasury yields for signs of repricing that could drive near-term BTC volatility and liquidity shifts (source: CME Group; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

According to @rovercrc, a Fed rate cut would be a powerful bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Historically, outcomes have depended on the macro context: after the emergency cuts to 0–0.25% and the restart of asset purchases on March 15, 2020, BTC gained over 100% by August 2020 and more than 400% by year-end 2020, reflecting a liquidity-driven bid for risk assets (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 2020-03-15; BTC-USD daily prices from Yahoo Finance). In contrast, during the 2019 mid-cycle cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30, BTC fell roughly 30% from July 31 to December 31, 2019 before its longer-term uptrend resumed, underscoring that not every cut triggers an immediate rally (sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements 2019-07-31, 2019-09-18, 2019-10-30; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data). Macro transmission matters for crypto beta: BTC’s rolling correlation has been negative versus the U.S. Dollar Index and positive versus the Nasdaq 100 through much of 2022–2023, implying a weaker USD and easier financial conditions tend to support BTC, while risk-off in equities can weigh on it even during easing cycles (source: Kaiko research, 2023; ICE U.S. Dollar Index overview). For positioning around an eventual cut, traders commonly monitor Fed cut odds via CME FedWatch, the DXY trend, and U.S. real yields as proxied by 10-year TIPS yields to gauge liquidity and risk appetite shifts that spill over to BTC (sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Federal Reserve Economic Data for Treasury real yields).