According to Edward Dowd, he asserted that undocumented immigration has boosted US economic activity and put a floor under the housing market via rental demand. Source: Edward Dowd on X (Dec 5, 2025). For traders, rental-driven demand is material because shelter comprises roughly one-third of the CPI basket, a key input for Federal Reserve policy expectations that drive rates, the dollar (DXY), and cross-asset risk appetite. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI relative importance; Federal Reserve FOMC communications. Crypto market participants should note that changes in US inflation and rate expectations have been associated with co-movements between equities and major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, making CPI shelter prints and housing data potential volatility catalysts. Source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto–equity correlations; Federal Reserve communications on the role of inflation in policy. Equity and macro proxies to monitor include US REITs and homebuilder ETFs (VNQ, XHB, ITB) for housing sensitivity, 2-year Treasury yields for policy-path repricing, and DXY for dollar liquidity impacts that often spill over into crypto liquidity conditions. Source: Vanguard (VNQ) and State Street/BlackRock (XHB, ITB) fund documents; U.S. Treasury yield benchmarks; ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Redfin data show the U.S. median home sale price rose 2.4% year over year in the four weeks ending November 9 to $393,700, the highest since August (source: Redfin). @KobeissiLetter adds the latest gain is the largest in six months and that prices are up by roughly $18,700 over the past three years (source: Redfin via @KobeissiLetter). Home purchase prices are not directly used in CPI; shelter inflation is instead based on rents and owners’ equivalent rent, which together carry about one-third of headline CPI (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Sticky shelter inflation can delay policy easing as the FOMC intends to keep policy restrictive until inflation moves sustainably toward 2%, a macro setup crypto traders in BTC and ETH monitor via rates and USD trends (source: Federal Reserve Board; source: Kaiko Research).

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. national apartment rents fell 0.31% month over month in October, the steepest October decline in over 15 years. Source: @KobeissiLetter. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline as elevated supply weighed on prices, with three of the five largest monthly rent drops in the past 15 years occurring in August, September, and October 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Annual rent growth slowed to 0.8%, down from 1.5% at the start of 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. All regions declined in October, led by the West at -0.53% MoM, followed by the South at -0.28%, the Northeast at -0.24%, and the Midwest at -0.18%. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Shelter is the largest component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index and includes rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent, so rent trends are closely watched for inflation assessment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because the Federal Reserve bases policy decisions on inflation data, rent disinflation is a key input for rate expectations and broader financial conditions tracked by traders. Source: Federal Reserve. These macro conditions form the backdrop for risk assets, making the rent downtrend relevant for liquidity-sensitive markets, including cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve.