Glassnode reports the Coinbase premium stayed negative throughout Bitcoin's decline from the September high, with its 30-day average reaching the deepest level since February.

Analyst Ki Young Ju reports Coinbase Premium reached a 4-year low on October 30 2026, matching levels last seen after the FTX collapse in November 2022 when Bitcoin bottomed.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium turns positive at $79593.43, flashing bullish U.S. institutional flows with 4h chart showing EMA50 support at $76763.02.

Coinbase premium turns positive for first time in three months at BTC $79180.75, signaling US spot demand return amid neutral RSI and MACD death cross on 4h chart.

According to @52kskew, TWAP buying in BTC has restarted with a clear correlation to Coinbase spot flows, and spot CVD is currently leading price action, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 8, 2026. He adds that the Coinbase discount narrowed during the US session, signaling stronger US spot demand consistent with spot ETF-driven activity, while questioning what share of flows is not ETF-related, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 8, 2026. On the 4H chart, BTC reset into the 4H trend and prior resistance; confirmation signals are acceptance above the weekly open and a firm reclaim of 94K, with 94K flagged as the most important area, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 8, 2026. For a strong rally setup, he wants to see unquestionable demand emerging from 90K, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 8, 2026. Traders can monitor spot CVD versus price and the Coinbase premium or discount as leading cues for sustained ETF-style bids and momentum validation, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @cas_abbe, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium has flipped positive even as BTC price declined, indicating potential US spot demand resilience that can precede bottoms. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 30, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, this premium behavior mirrored conditions that preceded the April 2025 BTC trend reversal, making sustained positive premium a trading signal to monitor for a near-term bottom. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 30, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, the Coinbase BTC premium has been negative for 23 consecutive days and large US entities are offloading at the US market open, source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 21, 2025. A negative Coinbase premium indicates Coinbase spot pricing below offshore venues and is widely used as a gauge of US selling pressure versus non US flows, source: CryptoQuant Coinbase Premium Index documentation. @cas_abbe links the persistent discount to stress in Japan’s bond market and warns the impact could exceed the August 2024 drawdown, source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 21, 2025. For trading, this setup favors monitoring Coinbase versus offshore spot spreads around the US cash open and watching for basis dislocations when the premium stays negative, source: CryptoQuant methodology and the source post.

According to @ki_young_ju, BTC futures average order size shows whales have exited and retail now dominates, source: @ki_young_ju. IFP data indicates BTC inflows from spot to futures exchanges have collapsed, ending the phase when whales posted BTC as collateral to go long, source: @ki_young_ju. Estimated leverage ratio remains high and Binance deposit cost basis is around 57k, implying traders already captured sizable gains from ETF and institutional flows, source: @ki_young_ju. Open interest is still above last year and the aggregated funding rate is neutral rather than fearful, source: @ki_young_ju. On spot, the Coinbase Premium is at a nine-month low, likely tied to ETF-driven institutional selling, source: @ki_young_ju. Bitcoin ETF weekly flows have been net negative for three consecutive weeks, source: @ki_young_ju. Strategy mNAV stands at 1.23, suggesting near-term capital raising is difficult, source: @ki_young_ju. On-chain, realized cap growth has stalled for three days and market cap is rising slower than realized cap, signaling strong selling pressure, source: @ki_young_ju. The PnL Index flipped short on November 8, indicating whales are taking profit, source: @ki_young_ju. Taken together, these metrics highlight cautious near-term BTC positioning with 57k as a key reference level for cost basis and profit-taking dynamics, source: @ki_young_ju.