According to @godbole17, the Dollar Index (DXY) has printed a Dragonfly Doji-like candle at the lower end of its sideways channel, signaling bear failure and a potential bounce toward 100.30-100.55, source: @godbole17.

According to @BullTheoryio, this week saw a cross-asset breakdown, with the Russell 2000 falling sharply after reaching a new high of 2838 and the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to a multi-year level, underscoring that small-cap stocks typically lead when risk begins leaving the market (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below a 16-year long-term trendline and is testing the 96 level that preceded the 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin bull runs, source: @BullTheoryio. They state that sustained moves below 96 have historically coincided with strong Bitcoin performance, implying a potential tailwind for BTC if sub-96 conditions persist, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken its 15-year uptrend amid Japanese yen strength and an IMF warning about rapid selling of US dollar assets. According to @BullTheoryio, with the monthly candle set to close in three days, a close below the trendline would indicate elevated downside risk for the dollar.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the real-time USD share in international FX reserves is falling rapidly and was already close to 40% in November 2025, a trend he notes has historically been tightly correlated with DXY, implying downside risk for the Dollar (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this rapid erosion in reserve share suggests the potential for massive Dollar depreciation if the correlation persists (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, precious metals are rallying as this shift unfolds, underscoring defensive positioning in macro trades (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down about 1.5% month to date and has fallen to its lowest level since September 18 after logging its worst year since 2017, signaling continued dollar weakness (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this backdrop supports a pro-asset stance, summarized as own assets or be left behind, implying ongoing bid for risk and real-return exposures (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to @simplykashif, China is accumulating physical commodities while the U.S. is reasserting dollar dominance, framing the current macro backdrop as USD versus commodities with Bitcoin positioned as a neutral asset for portfolio construction, source: @simplykashif on X, Jan 13, 2026, https://x.com/simplykashif/status/2010986803785084977. According to @simplykashif, the trading implication of this thesis is to prioritize the USD-commodities dynamic when managing risk and consider BTC as a neutrality hedge during shifts between dollar strength and commodity cycles, source: @simplykashif on X, Jan 13, 2026, https://x.com/simplykashif/status/2010986803785084977. According to @simplykashif, he shared a video expanding on this view for traders assessing macro flows between fiat, hard assets, and Bitcoin, source: @simplykashif on X, Jan 13, 2026, https://x.com/simplykashif/status/2010986803785084977.

According to @lisaabramowicz1, Apollo’s Torsten Slok highlighted that foreign demand for US assets was more robust in 2025 than in 2024, countering fears of a mass exodus from the dollar, which is a key macro input for FX, rates, and crypto positioning; source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X, Dec 29, 2025. For flow verification and tracking, traders should reference the U.S. Treasury’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, which measures net foreign purchases of Treasuries, agencies, corporate debt, and equities to gauge overseas appetite for USD assets; source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, TIC System. Stronger foreign buying typically supports the USD and can anchor Treasury term premia by absorbing duration supply, shaping DXY and yield dynamics that influence global risk appetite; source: Federal Reserve Board research on term premia and demand effects, BIS Quarterly Review on global dollar funding. For crypto, BTC has historically exhibited periods of negative rolling correlation with DXY, meaning USD strength can coincide with softer BTC performance; source: Coin Metrics correlation datasets and research. Actionably, monitor DXY levels, U.S. 10Y yields, and the monthly TIC release calendar to adjust USD exposure and crypto beta, especially BTC and USD pairs sensitive to dollar liquidity; source: ICE Data Indices (DXY methodology), U.S. Treasury TIC calendar, Coin Metrics correlation monitors.

According to the source, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high; traders should verify the official closing level with S&P Dow Jones Indices before acting. Source: the source post dated Dec 24, 2025; Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown increased comovement with U.S. equities during risk-on phases, suggesting an equity breakout can raise BTC’s short‑term upside beta. Source: Bank for International Settlements, Bulletin No. 57 on crypto and risk-asset correlation. For confirmation and timing, monitor U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, Treasury yields, and the U.S. Dollar Index, which desks commonly track as crypto drivers alongside equities. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Jan 2024 and issuer flow disclosures; Source: Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates; Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology; Source: Kaiko research on macro drivers and BTC-equity correlation.

According to the source, a social media post claims the Federal Reserve has overhauled bank supervisory policy and pulled back from prior crypto-focused restrictions, which requires confirmation on the Federal Reserve Board’s official channels before trading decisions are made, source: X post; source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should wait for an official Board press release or supervisory letter to confirm any changes to banks’ treatment of crypto custody, stablecoin-related activities, and distributed-ledger settlement before repositioning, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Once an official document is posted, monitor BTC and ETH price action, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield, DXY, and U.S. regional bank equities for cross-asset reaction to any confirmed policy shift, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index.

According to Edward Dowd, his December 11, 2025 post on X asked whether anyone is advising the President, without offering policy specifics, providing a prompt for traders to assess political-risk exposure across risk assets. Source: Edward Dowd on X https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1999203232611270885 For trading context, elevated US Economic Policy Uncertainty has historically aligned with higher equity volatility and weaker risk-asset performance, as evidenced by the Baker-Bloom-Davis EPU index and the Cboe VIX. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ During risk-off periods, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a stronger correlation with US equities since 2020, indicating heightened sensitivity of crypto to macro shocks and equity drawdowns. Source: IMF blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks Tighter financial conditions, a stronger US dollar (DXY), and rising US 10-year real yields have been associated with broad risk-asset pressure, coinciding with notable crypto drawdowns in past cycles. Source: BIS Quarterly Review December 2022 Crypto shocks and retail losses https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212b.htm; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm Actionable watchlist for political-risk episodes: EPU index, VIX, BTC-Nasdaq 100 correlation, DXY, and 10-year real yields, which historically signaled higher realized volatility and potential de-risking in crypto and equities. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/; IMF blog https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks; FRED real yields DFII10 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10; FRED broad dollar index DTWEXBGS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS

According to @danheld, the core bet is unlimited fiat supply competing for a fixed 21 million BTC, putting Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity at the center of the trade thesis. Source: @danheld (X, Dec 11, 2025). Bitcoin’s maximum supply is hard-capped at 21 million by consensus rules, with issuance reduced via halvings every 210,000 blocks until roughly 2140. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide and BIP-42 (Bitcoin Core). Fiat money supply is elastic and can be expanded by central banks through tools like asset purchases and lending facilities, affecting purchasing power via policy and credit growth. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System education resources and IMF monetary policy primers. For trading, a fixed BTC supply means marginal demand from regulated vehicles such as US spot BTC ETFs can have outsized price impact when liquidity expands. Source: U.S. SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10, 2024 and related SEC orders. Effective tradable float may be lower than 21 million due to provably lost or long-dormant coins, reducing immediate market supply. Source: Chainalysis estimate of 2.78 to 3.79 million lost coins (2017 report). Key liquidity indicators traders monitor for BTC risk exposure include global M2 growth, USD strength via DXY, and U.S. real yields from TIPS. Source: World Bank Broad Money (M2) dataset, ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and U.S. Treasury real yield data. Research frameworks emphasize liquidity and real yields as major drivers of Bitcoin performance, supporting process-driven entries and sizing beyond narratives alone. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Bitcoin First (2022) and ARK Invest Bitcoin Monthly research.

According to @WatcherGuru, the US trade deficit has fallen to the lowest level since 2020, indicating a narrower gap between exports and imports (source: @WatcherGuru). A narrower deficit mechanically adds to net exports and contributes positively to real GDP under NIPA accounting, which can firm US Treasury yields and the US dollar in the near term (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis). A stronger USD and higher real yields have historically coincided with headwinds for BTC and ETH due to periods of negative correlation with DXY and dollar liquidity proxies (source: Kaiko Research; Coin Metrics). Crypto performance also tends to soften when USD financial conditions tighten, while export-driven improvements in trade can support risk sentiment if they lift growth without materially tightening liquidity (source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Reports; BIS Quarterly Review). Traders should monitor the official US International Trade in Goods and Services release for detail on whether the improvement stems from export strength or import weakness, as the driver has different implications for risk appetite and crypto flows (source: U.S. Census Bureau and BEA).

According to @charliebilello, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services totaled $766 billion in the first nine months of 2025 versus $653 billion in the same period of 2024, a 17% year-over-year increase and a record high. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. In U.S. national accounts, a larger trade deficit reduces GDP via the net exports component (NX), making the print relevant for rate expectations and USD positioning. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Handbook. Crypto traders can monitor USD moves and U.S. real yields for potential spillovers to BTC and ETH, which are broadly quoted in USD across major venues and via CME-listed bitcoin futures. Source: CME Group contract specifications for Bitcoin futures; exchange USD-quoted BTCUSD and ETHUSD markets.

According to @StockMKTNewz, President Trump said the US stock market "just hit an all-time high" on Dec 11, 2025, a development traders watch for risk-on spillover. According to Kaiko research, BTC has often exhibited a positive rolling correlation with US equity indices during risk-on regimes in 2022–2023, making equity strength a relevant input for crypto positioning. According to Coin Metrics’ State of the Network, BTC performance has historically moved inversely with the US Dollar Index and shown sensitivity to US real yields, so traders monitor DXY and Treasury yields alongside S&P 500 futures after equity highs. According to CME Group, near-24-hour liquidity in E-mini S&P 500 futures provides cross-asset confirmation or divergence signals that crypto traders can incorporate into intraday setups.

According to @AltcoinDaily, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Dec 10, 2025 (source: Altcoin Daily on X, Dec 10, 2025). A 25-basis-point move equals 0.25 percentage points, and policy rate adjustments transmit to markets by lowering short-term yields and easing financial conditions, key drivers traders track via DXY, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields, and real rates (sources: U.S. SEC Investor.gov; Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Transmission). Historical analyses show crypto’s correlation with equities increases during easier financial conditions, making BTC and ETH sensitive to liquidity shifts after rate cuts (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 analysis on crypto–stock correlation).

According to @WatcherGuru, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed believes recent job gains have been overstated by about 60,000 in recent months, aligning with the Fed’s focus on labor data within its dual mandate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Chair Powell press remarks; Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate. For trading, a weaker underlying labor picture typically increases market-implied odds of policy easing and can pressure front-end Treasury yields and the US dollar, metrics closely watched by BTC and ETH traders for liquidity and risk-sentiment cues. Source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool methodology on interest rate expectations; Coin Metrics, State of the Network research on macro-crypto correlations.

According to @WatcherGuru, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy rates will stay the same or be cut a little or a lot, adding that a rate hike is not anyone's base case. Source: Watcher.Guru post on X dated Dec 10, 2025. A pivot away from hikes reduces expected discount rates and tends to lift risk-asset valuations by easing financial conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Education resources on how monetary policy affects the economy; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report. For crypto, periods of falling U.S. yields have coincided with stronger performance and higher beta versus equities, with BTC and ETH showing increased correlation to risk-on moves. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2023; Kaiko Research correlation analyses 2023–2024. Traders can watch the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY for confirmation, as declines in these indicators have aligned with crypto upside during prior dovish shifts. Source: CME Group education on interest rates and FX; Coin Metrics market data on BTC sensitivity to yields.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not anyone's base case and policy is either holding, cutting a little, or cutting a lot. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Dec 10, 2025. This guidance reduces perceived hike risk and is typically supportive for risk assets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as easier financial conditions lower discount rates. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023) on monetary policy transmission to financial conditions. Crypto traders should watch 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) for confirmation, as BTC has shown periods of inverse co-movement with yields and the dollar during easing shifts. Source: Bank for International Settlements research on crypto market behavior (2023) and Federal Reserve Economic Data for UST2Y and DXY.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Fed Chair Powell said US Treasury purchases may remain elevated for a few months and the Fed will buy 40 billion dollars over the next 30 days, only 12 days after quantitative tightening ended. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X. At that rate, the schedule implies roughly 1.3 billion dollars per day of Treasury demand in the next month, temporarily reducing net supply. Sources: The Kobeissi Letter on X for amounts and timing; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domestic Open Market Operations, for the mechanism that Fed purchases add bank reserves. Crypto traders monitor Fed purchase flow and reserve changes as liquidity inputs that can influence BTC and ETH risk conditions and volatility. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domestic Open Market Operations; Bank for International Settlements 2022 research on global liquidity and crypto markets.