According to the source, this week features the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference on Wednesday alongside earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday (sources: Federal Reserve Board calendar; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon investor relations). Among these, the FOMC decision typically delivers the largest cross-asset volatility by directly repricing the policy rate and the US dollar, a channel that spills into BTC and ETH via liquidity and risk appetite (sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements and press conferences; CME Group FedWatch and fed funds futures; ICE U.S. Dollar Index). For trading, prioritize Powell’s guidance on the policy path and balance sheet runoff and watch the 2-year Treasury yield and DXY reaction, which have shown the tightest intraday linkage to crypto during macro events (sources: Federal Reserve press conference transcripts; U.S. Treasury yield data; Kaiko cross-asset correlation research). Mega-cap tech results can swing the Nasdaq and crypto beta via AI capex and ad-spend guidance, but on FOMC weeks the index response is often secondary to policy signals (sources: company earnings releases and guidance; Nasdaq 100 performance data). A planned Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday is a geopolitical wildcard for risk assets, with any signals on tariffs or export controls watched by tech and crypto mining supply chains (sources: White House public schedule; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China briefings).

According to the source, NYDIG’s Greg Cipollaro states Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge but a liquidity barometer that tends to perform better when the U.S. dollar weakens (source: NYDIG, Greg Cipollaro). For trading, this points to monitoring the ICE U.S. Dollar Index trend, where DXY downside aligns with more favorable BTC risk conditions per Cipollaro’s framework (sources: NYDIG; ICE U.S. Dollar Index). Traders can also track U.S. liquidity gauges such as the Federal Reserve balance sheet (H.4.1), Reverse Repo usage, and the Treasury General Account to assess dollar liquidity shifts that may influence crypto risk appetite under the NYDIG liquidity lens (sources: Federal Reserve H.4.1; Federal Reserve Overnight RRP; U.S. Treasury TGA; NYDIG).

According to the source, weak U.S. manufacturing data could extend Bitcoin’s cycle by loosening financial conditions that favor risk assets, and traders should verify with the official ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global PMI releases for confirmation, source: Institute for Supply Management; S&P Global. Sub-50 ISM readings indicate contraction and have historically aligned with declines in the 10-year Treasury yield and a softer U.S. dollar, both of which are tailwinds for BTC liquidity, source: Institute for Supply Management; Federal Reserve Economic Data (DGS10); ICE U.S. Dollar Index. BTC has shown a negative correlation with U.S. yields and the dollar in 2023–2024, so drops in DGS10 and DXY have tended to coincide with stronger BTC performance, source: Kaiko Research 2024; Glassnode research. Traders should monitor ISM new orders and prices paid sub-indexes plus post-release moves in DGS10, DXY, and CME FedWatch rate-cut probabilities to gauge near-term BTC direction and volatility, source: Institute for Supply Management; Federal Reserve Economic Data; ICE Data Services; CME FedWatch.

According to @CNBC, JPMorgan has outlined a CPI-day reaction framework for U.S. equities that maps potential moves in the S&P 500, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar based on upside or downside inflation surprises, providing traders with a scenario-based playbook ahead of Friday’s release. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html The report indicates equity, rates, and FX reactions are tiered by CPI surprise buckets, implying actionable hedging and positioning around risk-on/off shifts that can spill over to crypto beta via liquidity and dollar dynamics. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html For crypto, BTC and ETH tend to respond to CPI-driven moves in front-end yields and the DXY through risk sentiment and funding conditions, so traders should monitor BTC’s correlation to U.S. stocks and the dollar around the print. Source: https://research.kaiko.com

According to the source, Bitcoin is preparing for its first U.S. inflation read since a government shutdown, putting a near-term focus on CPI as a volatility catalyst, source: the source. The U.S. Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 a.m. ET and is a widely followed macro indicator that can shift risk sentiment across assets, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC historically sees elevated intraday volatility and thinner order books around CPI release windows, increasing slippage and execution risk for traders, source: Kaiko Research. Crypto options markets have tended to price an implied volatility rise into CPI and an IV crush afterward, shaping short-dated gamma and skew positioning, source: Deribit Insights. Rate expectations that update after CPI often move the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields, which have shown inverse correlation with BTC during tightening phases, source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve. Key watch items at the release include DXY, U.S. 2-year yields, BTC funding rates, and spot-futures basis due to their sensitivity to rate expectations and liquidity conditions, source: ICE Data Indices; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Kaiko; Deribit.

According to @52kskew, USD strength and Treasuries remain the primary overhang on risk assets despite today’s positive headlines, indicating subdued risk appetite into the close; source: @52kskew on X, Oct 17, 2025. He adds that the end-of-day gold close is an important signal to watch for near-term market direction, a cue crypto traders can monitor for risk tone today; source: @52kskew on X, Oct 17, 2025.

According to the source, traders are reassessing crypto’s role as a currency-debasement hedge and should track six data-backed signals for positioning and risk. Lower US real yields tend to support BTC and gold, while higher real yields pressure both, making the 10-year TIPS trend a primary input for timing risk-on entries, source: Federal Reserve FRED; Bank for International Settlements Working Papers. Sustained USD weakness (DXY downtrend) historically aligns with stronger BTC performance, so monitor weekly DXY momentum and breakouts, source: Federal Reserve; International Monetary Fund research. Growth in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization often precedes improved crypto liquidity and risk appetite, useful as a leading indicator for BTC trend strength, source: Federal Reserve FEDS Notes; Chainalysis research. A widening positive CME BTC futures basis alongside rising open interest signals increasing institutional demand, while deeply negative funding and shrinking basis flag stress and liquidation risk, source: CME Group; US CFTC Commitments of Traders. Elevated miner-to-exchange flows and compressed hashprice warn of near-term sell pressure, whereas declining outflows and improving hashprice tend to ease supply overhang, source: Glassnode; Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. A downside reversal in the Gold/BTC ratio can mark rotation back into BTC from gold, while a persistent uptrend favors gold over crypto in debasement hedges, source: London Bullion Market Association; CF Benchmarks; TradingView. BTC’s fixed supply schedule post-2024 halving reduces annual issuance to roughly 0.9%, reinforcing the long-term scarcity thesis versus fiat debasement for multi-year allocations, source: Bitcoin.org whitepaper; Bitcoin Core documentation.

According to the source, gold continues to reach new all-time highs while Bitcoin (BTC) shows a strong correlation, highlighting active positioning in inflation-hedge trades, source: the source.

According to @DowdEdward, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may have set a major cycle low while long-duration Treasuries (TLT) could rally as yields fall, reflecting a global growth scare being priced in, with major equity indices including the SPX likely to catch up to this shift, source: @DowdEdward on X (Oct 14, 2025). A stronger dollar has historically pressured crypto risk assets, with BTC and ETH often showing negative correlation to DXY during risk-off periods, source: Kaiko Research. If Treasury prices rise and yields decline, that inverse relationship aligns with bond market mechanics, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Dollar appreciation tends to tighten global financial conditions and weigh on cross-border risk-taking, a setup that can curb crypto liquidity, source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report. Macro-crypto desks commonly track DXY and U.S. yields as key drivers of digital asset flows and risk appetite, making these indicators critical for BTC and ETH positioning, source: Fidelity Digital Assets.

According to @DowdEdward, housing, regional banks, and private equity were already rolling over this month even as indices hit new highs, indicating internal market weakness before the tariff headlines, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, high-yield credit spreads had begun widening prior to today, pointing to deteriorating credit conditions that predate the news flow, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, the 30-year US Treasury bond price and DXY likely put in important lows for the year and are starting uptrends, a setup he flags as not bullish for risk assets, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, the poor economic situation is now affecting credit with potential feedback loops, elevating downside risk for risk assets including crypto such as BTC and ETH, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, even if Trump softens on China and markets rally, the credit issues that began before the tariff talk will not go away, keeping the broader risk-off bias in place, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, traders should monitor DXY, 30-year Treasuries, and high-yield spreads for confirmation of risk aversion that could pressure crypto and equities, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025.

According to the source, $1.65 trillion was wiped out from the US stock market today, indicating a severe single-day equity drawdown (source: provided social media post dated 2025-10-10). Given the reported equity loss, crypto traders should monitor spillover risk into BTC and ETH by tracking intraday cross-asset signals such as S&P 500 futures momentum, DXY strength, and VIX spikes as proxies for risk appetite during US trading hours (source: provided social media post dated 2025-10-10). Actionable steps include tightening risk limits, lowering leverage on bounces, watching BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates and open interest for de-risking signals, and setting alerts on correlation moves between BTC and US indices in case risk-off extends (source: provided social media post dated 2025-10-10).

According to @rovercrc, ETH will follow global liquidity, highlighting macro liquidity as a key driver to monitor for ETH price trends and risk management, source: X post by @rovercrc dated Oct 10, 2025. For actionable tracking, monitor four core liquidity gauges that update regularly: Federal Reserve H.4.1 balance sheet factors affecting reserve balances, European Central Bank consolidated weekly financial statement, Bank of Japan balance sheet statistics, and BIS Global Liquidity Indicators for cross-border credit, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System H.4.1 release; European Central Bank weekly financial statement; Bank of Japan Statistics; Bank for International Settlements Global Liquidity Indicators. As tactical proxies that inform dollar conditions and real rates used by macro traders in crypto workflows, follow the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY and U.S. Treasury 10-year TIPS real yields for execution timing and sizing inputs, source: Intercontinental Exchange DXY index materials and levels; U.S. Department of the Treasury real yield curve rates.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump said China is becoming very hostile, controls rare earths, holds a monopoly, sees no reason to meet President Xi in two weeks, is preparing a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products, and is considering many other countermeasures (source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Oct 10, 2025). US stocks fell to new weekly lows immediately after these remarks, signaling risk-off sentiment in equities (source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Oct 10, 2025). China’s dominant position in rare-earth processing amplifies supply-chain risk for EVs and semiconductors if trade tensions escalate, adding sector-specific downside risk (source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024). Trade policy uncertainty is historically associated with lower equity returns and higher volatility, which can propagate across risk assets (source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Federal Reserve Board, Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, 2022 update). Given this equity shock, traders are watching BTC and ETH because crypto’s correlation with U.S. stocks rose markedly in 2020–2022, increasing cross-asset spillovers during macro stress (source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). For risk management, market participants are monitoring VIX for volatility regime shifts and DXY for dollar strength that can pressure crypto liquidity in risk-off episodes (source: Cboe Global Markets VIX overview; ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology).

According to @business, Eurizon strategists say growing aversion to large reserve currencies, including the U.S. dollar, has propelled record rallies in gold and Bitcoin (BTC), and they expect the trend to continue, highlighting persistent demand for non-sovereign and hard-asset hedges; source: Bloomberg. For traders, this view identifies reserve-currency distrust as a key macro driver of momentum in BTC and gold and frames positioning around assets perceived as alternative stores of value; source: Bloomberg.

According to @ReutersBiz, Italy’s Natuzzi expects its 2025 U.S. revenues to be 20% below target due to tariff impact and a weaker dollar, signaling demand and margin headwinds tied to trade costs and FX moves in its key market. Source: Reuters Business (Oct 6, 2025). For crypto-facing macro traders, USD weakness cited in the update aligns with documented periods of negative correlation between BTC and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), making dollar trajectory a relevant cross-asset signal alongside consumer discretionary stress from tariffs. Source: Reuters Business (Oct 6, 2025); Kaiko Research (2022–2024 BTC-DXY correlation studies); Coin Metrics State of the Network (2022–2024 correlation analyses).

According to Miles Deutscher, BTC’s nominal all-time highs are less meaningful in a weakening dollar regime, implying that debasement supports upside momentum for BTC, equities, and gold, which traders should factor into positioning. Source: Miles Deutscher on X, Oct 5, 2025. U.S. consumer prices have risen roughly 20% from early 2020 to mid 2024, eroding purchasing power and making nominal highs less reflective of real returns, which provides macro context for Deutscher’s claim. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data. Traders can monitor the U.S. Dollar Index DXY as a proxy; after a 2022 peak the index moderated into 2023–2024, and research highlights an inverse BTC–DXY relationship that makes continued dollar weakness a potential tailwind for BTC. Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index history and Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. For confirmation, track real yields via the 10-year TIPS rate because rising real yields have historically pressured risk assets while falling real yields have supported crypto trend momentum. Source: Federal Reserve data on 10-year TIPS and Bloomberg Intelligence cross-asset studies. Net takeaway is to align BTC bias with dollar trend and real-yield direction while validating the inflation-hedge narrative highlighted by Deutscher. Source: Miles Deutscher on X and Federal Reserve data.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 with a decline of more than 10% year to date, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power since 2000, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while Core PCE inflation runs above 2.9% for the first time in over 30 years, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop favors hard assets, with gold and Bitcoin (BTC) expected to lead performance, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to the source, a sharp rally in gold prices has been reported; traders should verify the move against CME Gold futures settlements and the LBMA Gold Price benchmark before acting (sources: CME Group; London Bullion Market Association). For BTC, sustained declines in US 10-year TIPS real yields have coincided with upside phases such as 2020 and late 2023; monitor the real yield series as a primary macro driver (sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data; Coin Metrics research). A weaker US Dollar Index (DXY) often aligns with stronger crypto risk appetite; watch for DXY breakdowns as a tailwind for BTC (source: Federal Reserve Economic Data). Spot BTC ETF net inflows remain a high-impact catalyst for price discovery; track daily creations and redemptions from issuers to gauge demand (sources: SEC filings; BlackRock iShares; Fidelity Investments). Expansion in CME Bitcoin futures basis and open interest tends to confirm trend strength; rising basis with controlled funding typically reduces squeeze risk (source: CME Group). On-chain indicators such as realized profit/loss ratios and exchange balances help identify supply overhang or absorption during gold-led macro moves (source: Glassnode).

According to the source, the forthcoming report highlights seasonal trends, the XRP/BTC ratio, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and other metrics as the key indicators for BTC’s Q4 trajectory, guiding traders on market direction and risk monitoring (source: public tweet dated September 26, 2025).

According to the source, Bitcoin BTC hovered above 111,000 dollars as traders waited for U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Source: X post dated Sep 25, 2025. The Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is a key inflation gauge referenced by the FOMC in policy assessments, making it a critical catalyst for risk assets including BTC. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve FOMC statement. Into and after the print, market-implied policy probabilities can be tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge rate hike or cut expectations that often drive BTC volatility. Source: CME Group. For positioning, traders commonly monitor the U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield for macro risk cues around the data window. Source: ICE Data Indices for DXY; U.S. Department of the Treasury.