According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a mid-cycle shakeout alongside heightened bond market volatility, but this cannot be independently verified here; please provide a primary data source such as an exchange price feed, TradingView chart, or on-chain dataset to confirm the move and price level. Source: request for primary market data. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and rate volatility typically tighten financial conditions, pressure risk assets, and have historically coincided with BTC drawdowns. Source: Federal Reserve; ICE BofA MOVE Index. A stronger U.S. dollar (DXY) often correlates with weaker BTC performance during risk-off episodes; sustained DXY uptrends are a headwind for crypto beta. Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Negative or declining BTC perpetual funding rates alongside falling open interest indicate deleveraging and reduced long exposure, conditions that often precede volatility reversals. Source: Binance Futures; Deribit; Coinglass. Spot-perp basis turning deeply negative can signal capitulation and potential short-covering fuel when liquidity returns. Source: Deribit; Binance; Glassnode. On-chain stress gauges such as realized price bands and long-term holder SOPR near or below 1 have historically aligned with mid-cycle correction lows and subsequent recoveries. Source: Glassnode.

According to @BullTheoryio, markets have priced a 99.9% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at 2 pm ET, so trading focus shifts to the statement language, the QT decision, and Powell’s tone, source: @BullTheoryio. A dovish statement that highlights rising growth risks would imply additional cuts ahead and likely push 2-year Treasury yields lower while weakening the dollar, a setup that supports risk assets including BTC, source: @BullTheoryio. If the Fed labels the move a mid-cycle adjustment, upside could be limited and markets may consolidate or pull back, source: @BullTheoryio. Markets also expect the Fed to announce the end of QT, signaling a halt to balance-sheet reduction and an early liquidity inflection that has historically fueled risk-on behavior across tech, equities, and especially Bitcoin, source: @BullTheoryio. If Powell acknowledges slower growth or expresses confidence that inflation is under control, traders may see lower bond yields, a softer dollar, and a rally in equities and crypto; a cautious tone without commitment to future cuts would likely keep markets in consolidation, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are evaluating whether a potential Federal Reserve rate cut is already reflected in BTC price and positioning, and a practical way to validate this is to compare CME FedWatch implied probabilities with the latest FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections to see if the market implied path aligns with Fed guidance, source: CME Group and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Cross asset confirmation for a priced in cut includes a weaker US Dollar Index and lower US two year Treasury yields into and after the decision window, which are typical market responses to easier policy, source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and US Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED for yields. Derivatives signals consistent with full pricing in include neutral to negative BTC perpetual funding rates, a compressed basis between spot and futures, and moderating open interest that together imply limited incremental long leverage, source: Glassnode, Deribit, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Spot demand checks should focus on daily creations or redemptions in US spot Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund to see if net inflows persist beyond rate expectations, source: iShares, Fidelity, and Cboe BZX Exchange issuer disclosures. Options markets that show lower implied volatility and a softening downside skew into the event with muted realized volatility after the announcement indicate expectations were embedded ahead of time, source: Deribit and Laevitas. If BTC underperforms high beta equities following a dovish outcome, that relative move can signal the rate cut was anticipated by crypto relative to stocks, source: S and P Dow Jones Indices and Nasdaq.

According to @rovercrc, Jerome Powell confirmed the Federal Reserve is moving away from its 2% inflation target, implying more persistent inflation and a bullish setup for Bitcoin (BTC) in his view (source: @rovercrc on X). This claim is not corroborated by any official Federal Reserve transcript or press release at the time of writing, and the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals defines a 2% longer-run PCE inflation objective (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). For trading verification, monitor the Federal Reserve speeches and press releases for the relevant text and track rate expectations via CME FedWatch alongside BTC price and volume to gauge positioning (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; CME Group). Until there is official confirmation, treat this as headline risk and watch the dollar index (DXY) and U.S. 2-year Treasury yields for signs of repricing that could drive near-term BTC volatility and liquidity shifts (source: CME Group; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).