According to the source, bettors are wagering on whether Satoshi Nakamoto will move any BTC in 2025, drawing trading focus to early-mined coins and potential event risk from on-chain movements. source: provided post Any movement of coins from 2009–2010 blocks would be immediately observable on the Bitcoin blockchain and typically flagged within minutes by on-chain monitoring services such as Whale Alert. source: Bitcoin blockchain public ledger; Whale Alert service Dormant-coin awakenings have coincided with fast BTC price swings before, notably when 50 BTC from 2009 moved on 2020-05-20 and BTC sold off intraday before stabilizing. source: Bitcoin blockchain records; Bitstamp BTCUSD historical data For trading, monitor on-chain alerts and early-mined address clusters, and track BTC funding rates on major futures venues and options implied volatility on Deribit to gauge rising event risk around any Satoshi-related headlines. source: Glassnode address clustering methodology; Binance Futures funding rate documentation; Deribit options data

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) aggregated futures open interest reportedly reached a record $45.3B, signaling the highest concentration of leveraged positions this cycle and elevating fragility in derivatives markets, source: user-provided source. Historically, high open interest paired with positive or rising funding rates increases the probability of cascade liquidations and outsized volatility during deleveraging, source: Binance Research; Glassnode. Traders should track perpetual funding, futures-spot basis, and open interest changes versus price to infer long or short skew and positioning stress, source: Binance Research; CME Group. Large open interest clustered near key price levels and options strikes can fuel short or long squeezes, particularly around expiries, source: Deribit Insights; Kaiko Research. Derivatives-led advances without concurrent spot inflows tend to mean-revert faster, making spot liquidity depth and cumulative volume delta key confirmation metrics, source: Kaiko Research; CryptoQuant. Practical risk controls include trimming leverage, employing options collars or put spreads, and monitoring liquidation heatmaps to anticipate squeeze thresholds, source: Deribit Insights; CoinGlass.

According to the source, the post asks what price BTC could reach by the end of October but gives no forecast or data. source: X Historically, October has delivered gains more often than losses for BTC, which traders refer to as Uptober, making seasonality a commonly watched tailwind. source: coinglass.com Key market drivers that have historically influenced BTC into month-end include US inflation prints and Fed communications that shift rates expectations and risk appetite. source: bls.gov; federalreserve.gov Spot Bitcoin ETF creations and redemptions have been a major intraday demand signal in 2024, so tracking daily net flows remains critical for price discovery. source: bloomberg.com; farside.co.uk Options and futures positioning around Deribit and CME month-end and quarter-start can concentrate gamma and liquidity, amplifying moves or pinning price near high open-interest strikes. source: deribit.com/insights; cmegroup.com Structurally, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving cut issuance by 50 percent, which reduces new supply and can moderate miner sell pressure over time. source: bitcoin.org; glassnode.com

According to @AltcoinGordon, Ethereum ETFs just booked their highest-ever weekly inflow at $2.85B, signaling exceptionally strong primary-market demand for ETH exposure, source: @AltcoinGordon on X. For trading impact, sustained ETF net creations can necessitate underlying spot ETH purchases by authorized participants under standard ETF creation processes, which can tighten exchange liquidity and support upside momentum in ETH and the ETH/BTC pair, source: U.S. ETF issuer prospectuses and SEC registration statements. To validate follow-through, monitor real-time ETF flow trackers for persistence of inflows, source: Farside Investors and SoSoValue; confirm spot trend and ETH/BTC strength on major exchanges, source: Coinbase and Binance; and assess institutional positioning via futures basis and open interest alongside options skew and IV for demand for upside hedges, source: CME Group and Deribit.

According to Coinbase International Exchange, Coinbase is acquiring Deribit, the leading crypto options platform, to merge Deribit's options expertise with Coinbase's expanding perpetual futures business. This strategic acquisition aims to create a more comprehensive and efficient derivatives offering for crypto traders, increasing market liquidity and potentially reducing trading costs. The move is expected to enhance Coinbase's competitiveness in the global derivatives market, further integrating options and futures for advanced trading strategies (Source: @CoinbaseIntExch, May 8, 2025).