According to Edward Dowd, equity markets are indicating a rally right now. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. He warns that cracks are beginning in credit due to a weak economy and says his team is forecasting a recession. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025; Edward Dowd on X, Oct 10, 2025. Dowd outlines two trading paths today: either the market is not ready to price fundamentals and can print new highs, or the rally fades in futures or into the cash close. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. He adds that a red cash close would signal something else at work, likely liquidity and credit drying up from poor fundamentals, which is a key risk cue for high-beta assets. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. Given the increased co-movement between crypto and U.S. equities in risk-off regimes, a fade or red close would skew near-term bias bearish for BTC and ETH, while a sustained breakout would support risk-on flows. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022, Chapter on crypto assets and financial stability.

According to Edward Dowd, a 1987-style ‘Black Monday’ crash on Monday is very unlikely because major crashes have not started from all-time highs, and the SPX set a record last Thursday; he notes 1987’s 22% drop followed weeks of drawdown and a failed countertrend rally before the crash (source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 11, 2025). Dowd adds that while the fundamental backdrop is horrendous, confirmation of a new downtrend requires multiple days or weeks of bearish price structure before making that call (source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 11, 2025). For crypto-facing traders monitoring cross-asset risk, past research shows BTC’s correlation with equities rises during stress, so if a crash is unlikely near term as Dowd suggests, immediate crash-driven spillover risk to crypto is reduced, but SPX structure should be monitored closely (sources: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 11, 2025; IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync with Stocks, Jan 2022).

According to @DowdEdward, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) hired BDO as its auditor after months of not filing its 10-K. Source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 11, 2025. He suggests the previous audit firm may not have signed off on the report. Source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 11, 2025. He also states that SMCI is Nvidia’s (NVDA) third-largest customer. Source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 11, 2025. For trading, watch the timing and content of SMCI’s 10-K and any auditor opinions or internal control disclosures, as these items can drive headline risk and volatility; also monitor NVDA headlines for potential read-through if SMCI’s customer status is material. Source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 11, 2025.

According to @DowdEdward, housing, regional banks, and private equity were already rolling over this month even as indices hit new highs, indicating internal market weakness before the tariff headlines, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, high-yield credit spreads had begun widening prior to today, pointing to deteriorating credit conditions that predate the news flow, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, the 30-year US Treasury bond price and DXY likely put in important lows for the year and are starting uptrends, a setup he flags as not bullish for risk assets, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, the poor economic situation is now affecting credit with potential feedback loops, elevating downside risk for risk assets including crypto such as BTC and ETH, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, even if Trump softens on China and markets rally, the credit issues that began before the tariff talk will not go away, keeping the broader risk-off bias in place, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025. According to @DowdEdward, traders should monitor DXY, 30-year Treasuries, and high-yield spreads for confirmation of risk aversion that could pressure crypto and equities, source: @DowdEdward on X, Oct 10, 2025.

According to @DowdEdward, AI Capex has been a huge driver of GDP (source: Edward Dowd, Oct 6, 2025 tweet). The claim aligns with hyperscaler guidance: Alphabet said 2024 capex would be meaningfully higher than 2023, primarily for AI technical infrastructure (source: Alphabet Q2 2024 earnings release and call); Meta raised 2024 capex to $35–40B to fund AI and data centers (source: Meta Q2 2024 results); Microsoft flagged elevated FY25 capex to build AI infrastructure (source: Microsoft FY24 Q4 earnings call); Amazon signaled 2024 capex would meaningfully increase, led by AWS and AI (source: Amazon Q2 2024 earnings call). NVIDIA reported record Data Center revenue in Q2 FY2025 driven by generative AI demand, evidencing infrastructure-led growth (source: NVIDIA Q2 FY2025 earnings release). BEA reported that nonresidential fixed investment in equipment and intellectual property products contributed positively to U.S. real GDP in 2024, with information processing equipment and software notable components (source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024 quarterly GDP news releases). For crypto, AI-driven data center buildouts are reshaping miner economics as BTC miners pivot capacity to AI/HPC hosting—Core Scientific signed multi‑year AI hosting agreements totaling hundreds of megawatts with CoreWeave with multi‑billion contract value (source: Core Scientific press releases, June and July 2024), while Applied Digital and Iris Energy expanded AI cloud/HPC services (source: Applied Digital 2024 press releases; Iris Energy 2024 company updates). Rising AI data center load is also tightening Texas power markets, a key cost driver for miners (source: ERCOT 2024 reports on large flexible loads).

According to @DowdEdward, a Yale study reported by The Guardian finds the US jobs market has not yet been seriously disrupted by AI, indicating management claims of AI-driven layoffs and margin pressure should be treated with caution in near-term earnings analysis, source: The Guardian 2025-10-01; Yale study; @DowdEdward X post 2025-10-03. For trading, scrutinize companies that cite AI as a reason for job cuts or profitability issues and prioritize those providing measurable AI productivity gains or clear capex-to-opex ROI disclosures over narrative-only guidance, source: The Guardian 2025-10-01; Yale study; @DowdEdward. AI equity and AI-linked crypto themes may face a sentiment reset as slower real-economy impact implies fewer immediate fundamental catalysts, warranting tighter risk management on AI narrative trades, source: The Guardian 2025-10-01; Yale study; @DowdEdward. Monitor Q3–Q4 tech earnings call language for concrete unit-cost trends, headcount metrics, and AI deployment milestones to validate positioning, rather than accepting broad automation claims, source: The Guardian 2025-10-01; Yale study; @DowdEdward.

According to @DowdEdward, companies leasing assets on a 3-year depreciation schedule are aiming to keep revenue momentum, which he says indicates the AI capex cycle is in its late innings, making revenue quality and financing structures key trading variables. Source: https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1971983286554841314 Under US GAAP ASC 842, shifting from upfront equipment sales to 3-year leases recognizes income over the lease term and can smooth reported revenue while changing cash flow timing, a pattern traders monitor in late-cycle hardware markets. Source: FASB ASC 842 Major hyperscalers have recently increased server useful lives to 5–6 years, so a 3-year depreciation horizon is comparatively short and would front-load expense recognition versus peers, a useful benchmark for equity screening. Source: Amazon.com, Inc. 2023 Form 10-K; Microsoft Corporation 2023 Form 10-K; Alphabet Inc. 2023 Form 10-K For crypto markets, the state of AI capex can influence power and data center availability for Bitcoin miners, as US miners have signed AI/HPC hosting deals that tie mining infrastructure to AI compute demand. Source: Core Scientific company announcements 2024; Hut 8 Corp. investor materials 2024 Traders should track disclosures on lease mix versus capex in AI hardware vendors and data center operators, and watch any changes in hosting rates and capacity allocations that could affect BTC mining economics. Source: Edward Dowd on X; FASB ASC 842; public company filings cited above

According to @DowdEdward, China’s August retail sales and industrial output slowed and missed economists’ estimates as the real estate slump worsened, source: CNBC. CNBC reports that the weaker prints underscore ongoing pressure on domestic demand and manufacturing momentum amid a deepening property downturn, source: CNBC.

According to Edward Dowd, his Sep 15, 2025 X post shares only a link to Scott Adams’s content and includes no commentary, price levels, or crypto tickers, offering no direct trading signal; source: Edward Dowd on X, Sep 15, 2025. Given the absence of market details in the cited post, there is no actionable information for crypto or equity traders at this time; source: Edward Dowd on X, Sep 15, 2025.

According to @DowdEdward, social media platforms censored alternative narratives during Covid while allowing direct statements inciting violence to trend today, highlighting inconsistent content moderation (source: @DowdEdward on X, Sep 13, 2025). He states this is intended to divide the population and elicit emotional responses, framing the dynamic as deliberate rather than random enforcement (source: @DowdEdward on X, Sep 13, 2025). The post offers no market data or trading recommendations, so its trading relevance is limited to recognizing a sentiment headline around platform policy risk and polarization based solely on the author’s claims (source: @DowdEdward on X, Sep 13, 2025).

According to @DowdEdward, Oxfam’s 2023 data show the richest 1% own nearly half of global wealth while the bottom 50% hold just 0.75% (source: Oxfam 2023 via @DowdEdward). He argues that historically such gaps narrow mainly under existential threats or systemic collapse, citing Rome’s fall, the French Revolution, the Black Death’s labor shock, and the Great Depression as examples (source: @DowdEdward). He links today’s inequality dynamic to a governmental push for a cyber control grid with digital money as the control mechanism, signaling policy and surveillance risk relevant to digital assets and CBDC debates (source: @DowdEdward). He adds that he does not see imminent collapse but urges investors to understand cycles and government behavior when assessing macro risk (source: @DowdEdward). For crypto traders, the takeaway is elevated headline risk around CBDC frameworks and financial surveillance that could shape market sentiment and positioning across digital assets (source: @DowdEdward).

According to @DowdEdward, Apollo Academy reports that AI adoption rates among large companies are trending down, as indicated by the article headline he shared (source: Apollo Academy; source: @DowdEdward tweet dated Sep 7, 2025). The posted tweet includes only the headline and link, providing no quantitative metrics, timelines, or sector breakdowns (source: @DowdEdward tweet dated Sep 7, 2025). For trading, participants can monitor AI-exposed equities, cloud and software names, and AI-themed crypto tokens for any headline-driven sentiment shifts tied to the enterprise adoption signal reported by Apollo Academy and disseminated by @DowdEdward (source: Apollo Academy; source: @DowdEdward tweet dated Sep 7, 2025).

According to @DowdEdward, a Futurism report highlights that OpenAI usage drops sharply in the summer when students are out of school, underscoring a seasonal pattern in generative AI demand: source: @DowdEdward; Futurism. Independent web analytics previously showed ChatGPT web traffic fell about 9.7% month over month in June 2023 and 9.6% in July 2023, then stabilized in August and rebounded with back-to-school in September, indicating seasonality in engagement: source: Similarweb; Reuters. For trading, seasonality in AI engagement is a watchpoint for Microsoft (MSFT) given its multiyear partnership with OpenAI and integration of GPT models across Copilot and Bing: source: Microsoft investment announcement January 2023; Microsoft earnings commentary. AI narrative strength has coincided with outperformance of AI-focused crypto assets such as FET and RNDR during prior narrative surges, making usage metrics a relevant input for crypto traders: source: Binance Research; Kaiko Research. Traders can monitor Similarweb traffic and Sensor Tower app-download trends into September to anticipate any narrative re-acceleration that could influence AI-exposed equities and AI-linked tokens: source: Similarweb; Sensor Tower.

According to @DowdEdward, CNBC reported that the U.S. government has taken a 10% equity stake in Intel (INTC), a move that could immediately refocus semiconductor trading flows around policy-driven capital and national security themes, source: @DowdEdward; CNBC. Intel is already a key beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, with the U.S. Department of Commerce announcing up to 8.5 billion dollars in grants and up to 11 billion dollars in loans to Intel in March 2024, underscoring sustained federal support for domestic fabs, source: U.S. Department of Commerce. For crypto traders, the direct hardware link is limited because Intel discontinued its Blockscale Bitcoin mining ASIC line in 2023, reducing near-term supply effects on BTC mining equipment, source: Reuters. However, stronger U.S. backing for U.S.-based fabs aligns with CHIPS Act goals to shore up advanced chip supply for data centers and high-performance computing, and risk sentiment spillovers from large-cap tech into Bitcoin have been documented, suggesting traders monitor cross-asset moves between INTC and BTC on policy headlines, source: U.S. Department of Commerce; International Monetary Fund.

According to Edward Dowd, he asked Grok to compare the AI bubble with the 1800s railroad bubble and the answer highlighted three shared features: speculative investment, transformative technology, and economic cycles. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Aug 19, 2025. The post did not include tickers, price levels, trading recommendations, or any mention of cryptocurrencies or direct crypto market impact. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Aug 19, 2025.

According to @DowdEdward, the U.S. Supreme Court has declined to review a case challenging the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) authority to obtain user data from Coinbase, a decision with significant implications for cryptocurrency traders. The case stemmed from a 2016 "John Doe summons" where the IRS demanded records for thousands of Coinbase customers to identify potential tax evaders. The plaintiff, James Harper, argued this violated his Fourth Amendment rights, but lower courts consistently sided with the IRS, citing the agency's broad latitude to pursue unpaid taxes. The Supreme Court's denial solidifies the legal precedent, known as the third-party doctrine, which states that individuals have no reasonable expectation of privacy for information voluntarily shared with third parties like exchanges. For traders, this ruling confirms that their transaction data on platforms like Coinbase is accessible to the IRS, underscoring the critical importance of accurate tax reporting to avoid potential audits and penalties.

According to @DowdEdward, the provided content is personal and does not contain any trading-related analysis, market data, or financial insights. The information is not relevant for investment or trading decisions.

According to Edward Dowd, a comparative performance chart from 2020 to 2024 highlights a stark contrast between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The data presented in the chart indicates that while the DJIA experienced steady, modest growth, Bitcoin delivered significantly higher returns over the same four-year period. This visual analysis, shared by Dowd, suggests that despite its volatility, Bitcoin has substantially outperformed one of the leading traditional stock market indices, positioning it as a high-growth asset for investors during this timeframe.

According to Edward Dowd, a public dispute has emerged between SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam regarding the proper approach to cryptocurrency regulation. The source highlights that the heads of the two primary U.S. financial regulators expressed conflicting views at a recent conference. This open disagreement creates significant regulatory uncertainty for the digital asset space, a key factor for traders as it can lead to increased market volatility and impact investment strategies until a clear legislative framework is established.

According to @DowdEdward, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, its revised projections for weaker economic growth and stickier inflation are creating a bullish environment for Bitcoin (BTC). Several key indicators support this outlook for traders. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development Andre Dragosch of Bitwise called "very bullish" for Bitcoin, according to the source. Concurrently, AI-related stock Nvidia (NVDA) reached a record high, and its 90-day correlation with BTC stands at a strong 0.80, signaling a continued risk-on appetite. Furthermore, recessionary signals are emerging from the bond market, with a steepening yield curve noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter, and a drop in consumer confidence reported by the Conference Board. These factors have led traders to price in future Fed rate cuts, which could further propel risk assets like Bitcoin higher.