According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Halving Supply Shock Model BAERM estimates BTC’s exchange rate by regressing today’s price on yesterday’s price and the current halving epoch using ordinary least squares, and the market is now in Epoch 5, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model indicates a current fair value of $159,000 versus a reported market price of $109,000, implying material upside versus model value, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, BAERM’s forecasts show $173,000 for end-2025 and $7.59 million over 10 years, while projecting diminishing returns as halving effects fade, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, institutional demand from global Bitcoin ETPs and treasury buyers outweighed the 2024 halving deficit by nearly 6 times, challenging the model’s diminishing-returns assumption and elevating demand-side drivers for BTC, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model shows strong out-of-sample fit around 88% R^2 since the second halving but may suffer omitted variable bias because halving years coincide with US business cycle troughs in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model is somewhat outdated as it omits the growing impact of ETP flows, treasury purchases, and potential S-curve adoption, so traders should weigh halving-based fair value signals against demand flow metrics when assessing BTC valuation, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228.

According to Matt Hougan, the surging interest in stablecoins and the tokenization of real-world assets is expected to drive strong and sustained capital inflows into Ethereum (ETH) Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) for the foreseeable future. This analysis suggests a long-term positive outlook for ETH investment vehicles from a market demand perspective, potentially impacting ETH's price and liquidity.

According to Matt Hougan, after attending a leading advisory firm’s annual conference, the 'big unlock' for financial advisors is progressing rapidly, with expectations that every major advisory firm will enable crypto ETP investments by year-end. This development signals significant institutional adoption and increased liquidity in the crypto market, potentially leading to higher inflows and volatility as advisors and their clients gain streamlined access to regulated crypto products. Such shifts are poised to impact trading dynamics for popular cryptocurrencies and related ETPs. (Source: Matt Hougan on Twitter, May 14, 2025)