According to @Nick_van_Eck, the combination of the Federal Reserve cutting rates while risk assets sit at all-time highs and tokens serving as the primary product/exit in recent months points to ongoing distribution pressure that can cap rallies and increase sell supply across new crypto launches, impacting trade selection and risk management for token markets; source: @Nick_van_Eck on X, Oct 11, 2025.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, a new episode with @TrajanKing lays out eight time-stamped market catalysts for traders: U.S. government shutdown mechanics (02:20), the impact of a macro data blackout on potential Fed rate cuts (09:00), why BTC is lagging (16:20), updates on Nexo (23:08) and Figure Markets (23:42), what’s coming in 2026 (24:17), prepping for black swans (26:10), and a Bitcoin and crypto thesis to 2030 (32:20), source: @MilkRoadDaily. According to @MilkRoadDaily, the discussion frames a bullish long-term crypto outlook alongside U.S. debt spiral concerns, emphasizing risk management and positioning into the 2026–2030 horizon, source: @MilkRoadDaily. According to @MilkRoadDaily, the post provides actionable timestamps so traders can quickly review macro catalysts and align BTC and broader crypto exposure with the highlighted themes, source: @MilkRoadDaily.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 with a decline of more than 10% year to date, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power since 2000, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while Core PCE inflation runs above 2.9% for the first time in over 30 years, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop favors hard assets, with gold and Bitcoin (BTC) expected to lead performance, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to the source, a U.S. federal shutdown would force the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls) release because BLS suspends data collection and publication during a lapse in appropriations, which is outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan. According to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, labor market conditions are a key input to data‑dependent policy, and traders recalibrate rate‑cut odds after the jobs report using fed funds futures, as described by CME Group’s FedWatch methodology. According to the Cboe Options Institute, uncertainty around the timing of major macro releases tends to lift implied volatility, and crypto has become sensitive to U.S. macro conditions, according to IMF research showing stronger co-movement with broader risk assets.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, Scott Melker argues the Federal Reserve is effectively neutered and recent rate cuts have not triggered a crypto rally, indicating macro policy headlines are not the dominant driver of BTC and ETH near term, source: @MilkRoadDaily, Sep 25, 2025. The discussion highlights that gold is signaling recession risk while equities continue to rally, suggesting traditional cross-asset signals are breaking down for traders, source: @MilkRoadDaily, Sep 25, 2025. The segment focuses on what is actually moving markets now, pointing to AI-driven flows, institutional participation, and ETF listings as bigger catalysts than the classic four-year cycle, source: @MilkRoadDaily, Sep 25, 2025. It also notes growing activity in perpetual DEXs and raises whether institutional listings and market structure shifts are the real game changers for liquidity and price discovery, source: @MilkRoadDaily, Sep 25, 2025. Trading takeaway: prioritize monitoring ETF listing dynamics, institutional flow indicators, and Perp DEX activity over rate-cut headlines when positioning in majors like BTC and ETH, source: @MilkRoadDaily, Sep 25, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter on X (Sep 22, 2025), stocks are rising like the US economy is booming while oil prices are falling like a recession is approaching, highlighting a sharp cross-asset divergence relevant for crypto risk management, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, gold is climbing as if the Fed is cutting into inflation and Bitcoin BTC is declining as if Fed rate cuts are being postponed, pointing to policy expectations pressuring digital assets, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, home prices are rising as if more rate cuts are coming and Treasury yields are rising like stagflation has arrived, framing a new era of monetary policy that could drive BTC liquidity and volatility through yield and policy expectations, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the average funding spread, a gauge of institutional demand for long equity exposure via futures, options, and swaps, jumped roughly 20 basis points in recent days to its highest level since December 2024 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Sep 20, 2025). The move followed disappointing non-farm payrolls data two weeks ago, which increased market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts (source: @KobeissiLetter, Sep 20, 2025). Professional investor positioning has been steadily recovering since April, though the funding spread remains well below the peak seen in November 2024 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Sep 20, 2025). For crypto markets, higher institutional risk appetite in equities has historically coincided with stronger comovement between Bitcoin and stocks since 2020, making this uptick a relevant macro signal for digital assets (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022).

According to @rovercrc, a U.S.-China deal and 2-3 Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent and positioned as key catalysts for a risk-on move in crypto, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 20, 2025. The author sets a $10,000 price target for Ethereum (ETH), attributing potential upside to these macro drivers, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 20, 2025. Traders assessing ETH may reference these specific catalysts and target level as outlined by the author, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 20, 2025.

According to the source, an economist warned that rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts could jolt BTC and altcoins up substantially. According to the source, the economist expects at least two more rate cuts this year.

According to the source, US rate cuts have begun, creating a divergence where macro turns risk-on while crypto signals caution, so position sizing should wait for market confirmation rather than headlines, source: interview featuring @JustDeauIt shared on X, Sep 19, 2025. Key watch items highlighted are BTC performance versus global USD liquidity for timing beta exposure, exchange net flows turning positive as confirmation, and ETH leadership over BTC before rotating into higher-beta alts, source: interview featuring @JustDeauIt shared on X, Sep 19, 2025. GDP and bank lending softness are cited as context for why the Fed is cutting, while equities shifting to risk-on provides a supportive backdrop once crypto microstructure improves, keeping the stance bullish but careful, source: interview featuring @JustDeauIt shared on X, Sep 19, 2025. The discussion also covers a Bitcoin cycle update and names to monitor such as KGeN and Figure Markets as part of the broader market landscape, source: interview featuring @JustDeauIt shared on X, Sep 19, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter on X on Sep 17, 2025, 2025 is the third year since 1996 that Fed rate cuts began with the S&P 500 at or near record highs, with the prior instances in 2019 and 2024. According to @KobeissiLetter, when the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all-time highs, the S&P 500 has delivered an average +14% return over the following 12 months. According to @KobeissiLetter citing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks, Powell said he is focused on containing inflation and unemployment rather than the stock market. According to IMF research published in 2022, crypto assets including BTC and ETH have shown increased correlation with U.S. equities, implying that equity-positive policy pivots can transmit to crypto risk sentiment. According to @KobeissiLetter, asset owners are positioned for what comes next, aligning positioning with the historical rate-cut playbook outlined in their analysis.

According to Charlie Bilello, current US equity valuations are exceeded only by the 1999-2000 dot-com period, while the Federal Reserve is now cutting rates rather than hiking as it did then (source: Charlie Bilello X post on Sep 15, 2025; source: his linked YouTube video). He highlights this policy-valuation divergence and openly questions whether it risks forming the biggest bubble, underscoring a critical macro backdrop for traders (source: Charlie Bilello X post on Sep 15, 2025). For crypto positioning, elevated stock valuations and easier policy can transmit to BTC and ETH via the rising post-2020 equity-crypto correlation documented by global authorities (source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022).

According to @CNBC, historical market performance is often weak after rate cuts, particularly when the Federal Reserve cuts to stabilize a slowing economy, signaling late-cycle stress rather than a new bull trend for risk assets, which tempers near-term risk-on expectations for traders; source: CNBC. For crypto, cross-asset contagion risk is relevant because Bitcoin and equities became more correlated post-2020, meaning macro-driven equity drawdowns can transmit to BTC and ETH pricing during policy pivots; sources: IMF research (2022) and BIS analysis (2022).

According to @rovercrc, the Federal Reserve has confirmed upcoming rate cuts that he believes will trigger an explosive rally in risk assets (source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 15, 2025). He further predicts Ethereum (ETH) will reach $10,000, positioning ETH as the prime beneficiary of a Fed-driven liquidity upswing (source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 15, 2025). The post offers a directional long-ETH thesis but does not provide timing, evidence, or risk parameters, indicating traders would be following an author-stated momentum view tied to anticipated monetary easing (source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 15, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, rate cuts are coming Wednesday and he shared a historical Bitcoin versus Fed rates comparison to highlight macro’s impact on BTC price dynamics, source: Crypto Rover on X (Sep 15, 2025). According to @rovercrc, the post implies elevated event risk into the FOMC decision, prompting traders to monitor BTC volatility and manage exposure around the policy announcement, source: Crypto Rover on X (Sep 15, 2025). According to @rovercrc, the BTC versus Fed rates chart underscores watching correlation shifts between BTC and U.S. rates if a policy pivot materializes, source: Crypto Rover on X (Sep 15, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, since 1975 there have been only six instances where the S&P 500 rose 30% or more over five months, and 2025 is one of them. Source: @KobeissiLetter; Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. In those prior cases, the S&P 500 finished higher at both six and twelve months, with an average 12‑month gain of 18.1%. Source: Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. The post adds that the Federal Reserve is about to begin cutting rates as the AI cycle accelerates, framing a pro‑risk backdrop. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For traders, this macro setup is being monitored as a potential tailwind for liquidity and risk appetite across equities and crypto markets. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @AltcoinGordon, imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts followed by a restart of quantitative easing could spark a powerful crypto bull run and require early positioning to avoid being sidelined, which is an opinion and not an official policy signal. source: @AltcoinGordon on X The latest published Federal Reserve projections outlined a gradual path of potential rate reductions and did not announce QE, so traders should anchor plans to official FOMC statements and projections rather than assumptions. source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections June 2024; Federal Reserve Board, balance sheet normalization communications 2022–2024 Historically, during the 2020–2021 QE phase, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded from roughly 4.2 trillion dollars to about 8.7 trillion dollars while BTC rose from around 7,000 dollars in January 2020 to about 69,000 dollars in November 2021, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to liquidity. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data To verify any shift toward QE, monitor the weekly H.4.1 release for sustained increases in securities holdings, which would indicate balance sheet expansion rather than ongoing runoff. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release For rate-path confirmation, use the FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections at each meeting and cross-check market-implied probabilities via the CME FedWatch Tool as a real-time gauge. source: Federal Reserve Board FOMC statements and SEP; CME FedWatch Tool If the Fed formally signals easing, historical precedent suggests higher beta in BTC and ETH with stronger volumes and liquidity, whereas policy disappointment during the 2022–2023 tightening coincided with crypto drawdowns. source: Federal Reserve monetary policy communications 2020–2023; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD historical data Risk management should assume QT may persist without a QE restart, which would keep systemic liquidity tighter than in 2020–2021 and cap upside for higher-beta altcoins relative to BTC and ETH. source: Federal Reserve Board balance sheet runoff communications 2022–2024; Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release

According to @KobeissiLetter, in each of the last 20 instances when the Fed cut rates with the S&P 500 at record highs, the index finished higher 12 months later, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The average 12-month S&P 500 return across those cases was 13.9 percent, source: Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. However, in 11 of the last 22 similar episodes, stocks were lower one month after the cut, highlighting typical near-term volatility, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The author states that near-term volatility tends to create long-term buying opportunities, which traders can use to plan staggered entries and manage risk, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For crypto participants, this equity pattern in a key risk proxy can inform BTC and ETH positioning around a rate-cut window, especially if a one-month dip precedes a 12-month drift higher, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research.

According to @CryptoMichNL, today’s CPI was a "nothing burger" with limited market impact (source: @CryptoMichNL). He states rates are in a strong downtrend and have already peaked (source: @CryptoMichNL). He adds the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, implying further decline in yields (source: @CryptoMichNL). He compares the setup to Q1 2020 and says the bull market is now here for altcoins, suggesting a risk-on tilt in crypto markets (source: @CryptoMichNL).

According to @rovercrc, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls annual revisions are due today and could drive heightened volatility across crypto markets. According to @rovercrc, if prior job growth was overstated, the Federal Reserve may have been too tight for too long, increasing the likelihood of faster rate cuts. According to @rovercrc, if job growth was understated, policy is likely to stay tight, creating a risk-off backdrop for crypto. According to @rovercrc, traders should brace for volatility around the release.