According to @KobeissiLetter, the Chicago Fed estimates the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.36% in October, the highest since October 2021, with the rise tied to slower hiring, higher layoffs, quits, retirements, and the government shutdown, source: @KobeissiLetter citing Chicago Fed. The unemployment rate has risen by a full percentage point since May 2023, source: @KobeissiLetter. US-based employers announced 1,099,500 layoffs year-to-date, nearly matching the pace seen in 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, source: @KobeissiLetter citing Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Given the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate that includes maximum employment, labor conditions are a key policy input that markets track for rates, the USD, and crypto exposure such as BTC and ETH, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to @KobeissiLetter, average US car insurance premiums are expected to rise 4% by end-2025 to a record $2,402, with the national average for full-coverage potentially climbing up to 7% to $2,472 (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Premiums are projected to surge at least 12% in Rhode Island, Michigan, Maine, Washington, D.C., and Delaware (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Maryland currently has the highest average premium at $4,093, up 20% year over year (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Nationwide, car insurance costs have already increased by $759, or 49%, since 2021, pushing overall car ownership costs to new highs (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Motor vehicle insurance is a component of the Consumer Price Index tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, making these increases relevant for inflation readings (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Persistently higher CPI can keep Federal Reserve policy restrictive for longer under its inflation mandate, a key driver for rate-sensitive risk assets including BTC and ETH (source: Federal Reserve). Traders should monitor upcoming CPI prints and the motor vehicle insurance subindex for signals on inflation persistence and interest-rate path implications (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).

According to @KobeissiLetter on X (Sep 19, 2025), 41% of companies intend to lay off employees due to AI within five years, the 3‑month average youth underemployment rate has risen to 17% (highest since 2020), and the overall US underemployment rate just climbed to 8.1% (highest since 2021), signaling a structural labor shift that could affect asset pricing, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For traders, a rise in underemployment typically points to softer wage pressure and a more data‑dependent policy path, which the Federal Reserve has repeatedly highlighted in 2023–2024 statements and press conferences, source: Federal Reserve FOMC communications (2023–2024). If these labor trends are corroborated by official releases (e.g., BLS U‑6 underemployment), markets often respond with lower front‑end rate expectations and bid for duration, which can spill over into liquidity‑sensitive risk assets including BTC and ETH, source: BLS labor metrics definitions and Federal Reserve emphasis on labor‑inflation dynamics.

According to @rovercrc, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed upcoming interest-rate cuts, implying altcoins are next to rally, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 12, 2025. The post provides no official Federal Reserve link, timing, or magnitude for any cuts, so the claim is unverified and should be treated as market sentiment rather than confirmed policy, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 12, 2025. For traders, the signal points to a potential rotation into altcoins versus BTC and ETH if official confirmation follows from the Federal Reserve, but the post itself offers no such confirmation, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 12, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 13 days citing a weaker labor market while Core CPI has risen back above 3%, 110 bps over the 2% target, source: @KobeissiLetter. The Fed targets 2% inflation as measured by PCE, not CPI, a distinction that matters for interpreting policy credibility and market reaction, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Rate cuts typically ease financial conditions and influence risk assets, a dynamic that can heighten volatility in crypto such as BTC and ETH around policy decisions, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should watch the policy statement, dot plot, and subsequent labor and inflation releases to gauge real-rate and liquidity paths that drive crypto flows, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the time is nearing for interest rate cuts and suggested that more than two cuts may be necessary. This policy shift could inject new liquidity into financial markets and may boost demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). Traders should monitor FOMC communications closely, as rate cuts historically lead to increased volatility and upward momentum in crypto markets. Source: @StockMKTNewz.

According to @StockMKTNewz, crypto markets experienced a late-day selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $106,000 after initially appearing resilient to renewed US tariff threats against Canada. The report highlights that altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP faced even steeper declines of 5-7%. Citing a Coinbase research report, the source notes that markets seem complacent about tariff risks, believing they are unlikely to be highly inflationary. However, conflicting signals emerge from weakening economic data, including a softer Producer Price Index and rising jobless claims, which could pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish policy, potentially benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The negative sentiment was also reflected in crypto-related stocks, with Coinbase (COIN) falling 6%.

According to @rovercrc, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad sell-off on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling over 2.5% to below $106,000. The declines were more severe for altcoins, as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), XRP, and dogecoin (DOGE) saw drops between 5% and 7%. The source attributes the initial risk-off sentiment to geopolitical factors, including President Trump's threats of renewed tariffs and warnings of potential conflict in the Middle East. However, the report also highlights potentially bullish economic indicators, such as a softer-than-expected Producer Price Index and high jobless claims, which could pressure the U.S. Federal Reserve toward a more dovish monetary policy. In a significant development for traders, President Trump reiterated his pro-crypto stance at a summit, stating his administration will work toward 'clear and simple market frameworks' for digital assets, presenting a potential long-term positive catalyst for the market.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to nearly $107,000, gaining 1.7%, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel reduced geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown noted that doubts about the truce's stability emerged from a leaked U.S. intelligence report, potentially limiting gains. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized patience on interest-rate cuts due to persistent inflation and tariff concerns, with Bitunix analysts stating this supports risk assets but requires monitoring of upcoming economic data. Derivatives traders, including Jake O of Wintermute, indicated expectations of BTC price consolidation between $100,000 and $105,000 with a modest bullish bias for higher strikes.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a recent Federal Reserve study shows that every $10 increase in oil prices results in a 20 basis point rise in CPI inflation. Oil prices have already climbed about $20 from their April lows, which could add approximately 40 basis points to CPI inflation (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 22, 2025). This stronger inflationary pressure may influence Federal Reserve policy, increasing uncertainty for risk assets like BTC and ETH. Crypto traders should closely monitor energy market trends as rising inflation could prompt tighter monetary policy, potentially leading to higher volatility across digital assets.

According to @sentimenttrader, the ongoing conflict between Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is escalating, with Trump increasing public pressure for immediate interest rate cuts and even threatening Powell's position. While direct removal of Powell is highly unlikely due to institutional protections and potential damage to Fed credibility (source: @sentimenttrader), this political tension is creating market uncertainty. For cryptocurrency traders, heightened volatility in USD rates can lead to increased price swings in major digital assets like BTC and ETH, as investors often seek alternative stores of value during periods of monetary policy instability (source: Bloomberg). Crypto market participants should closely monitor Fed policy signals and political developments, as any shift in rate expectations could act as a catalyst for significant crypto price movement.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US labor market is showing significant weakness as full-time employment dropped by 623,000 in May 2025, marking the fourth largest monthly decline in the past five years and the second monthly drop this year (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 20, 2025). This reduction in full-time employment's share of the labor force may signal a slowing US economy, which could drive increased interest in safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. Traders should closely monitor these labor trends, as a weaker labor market could influence Federal Reserve policy and impact both traditional and crypto markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Donald Trump made notable comments on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on June 19, 2025, highlighting concerns over current monetary policy and its impact on inflation and interest rates (source: The Kobeissi Letter). This statement has led to increased volatility in both traditional and crypto markets, as traders anticipate potential shifts in Fed policy that could influence Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price action. Market participants are closely monitoring any further policy developments for signs of dovish or hawkish pivots, which are known to drive rapid changes in crypto valuations (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him 'the worst' and blaming him for costing America billions. This sharp critique highlights ongoing concerns about the Fed's monetary policy direction, which has historically influenced both stock and crypto market volatility. Traders should closely monitor potential shifts in central bank leadership sentiment, as negative outlooks on Powell's policies could fuel increased volatility in leading cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, especially around key macroeconomic events. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 19, 2025)

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), seven Federal Reserve members now project zero interest rate cuts for 2025, as reported on June 18, 2025. This hawkish stance signals tighter monetary policy ahead, which could strengthen the US dollar and increase downward pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). Crypto traders may see heightened volatility and reduced upside potential for BTC and altcoins in the near term, as expectations for lower rates had previously supported digital asset prices. Market participants should closely monitor further Fed commentary for shifts in rate outlook, as any dovish pivot could trigger sharp moves in crypto markets. Source: Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly)

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the median number of expected rate cuts for 2026 has decreased to one from the previous estimate of two. This shift in monetary policy expectations signals a potentially tighter economic environment, which could influence crypto market liquidity and risk appetite. Traders should monitor how reduced rate cut expectations may affect Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other major cryptocurrencies, as tighter policy tends to weigh on speculative assets. Source: Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly, June 18, 2025).

According to Evan (StockMKTNewz), the Magnificent 7 stocks had a mixed start on Jerome Powell Day, with three stocks opening in positive territory and four in the red, indicating heightened volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy update (source: StockMKTNewz, June 18, 2025). This uneven performance could drive increased risk sentiment across both equity and cryptocurrency markets, as traders anticipate potential signals on interest rates and inflation. Crypto traders should monitor BTC and ETH for possible volatility following Powell's remarks, as traditional market moves often influence digital asset flows.

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), recent US inflation data revealed a temporary spike, as illustrated in a chart shared on Twitter (source: @Andre_Dragosch, June 13, 2025). This unexpected uptick challenges previous expectations of easing price pressures. For crypto traders, higher inflation often stokes volatility in BTC and ETH, as markets anticipate potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. Historically, inflation surprises have triggered rapid moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum, making this data critical for short-term trading decisions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that President Trump’s proposed tariffs could raise US inflation to 3% (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 12, 2025). Rising inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or increase interest rates, which has historically pressured risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor macroeconomic policy shifts, as heightened inflation could increase volatility for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other digital assets while also impacting USDT and USD pairs due to shifts in dollar value.

According to Crypto Rover, former President Donald Trump stated he will not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if elected. This announcement reduces immediate uncertainty around US monetary policy, which has historically impacted Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto market volatility. Market participants may interpret this as a signal for policy continuity, potentially stabilizing risk sentiment for digital assets in the near term (Source: Crypto Rover on Twitter, June 12, 2025).