According to @charliebilello, 2026 YTD total returns show Small Caps IWM up 6.2 percent, S&P 500 Equal Weight RSP up 3.3 percent, and the S&P 500 SPY up 1.8 percent, indicating early leadership from smaller names and equal-weight versus cap-weight benchmarks, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Jan 14, 2026. The source explicitly asks whether the average stock will finally outperform in 2026 after years of lagging large caps and the Mag 7, underscoring that traders are monitoring a potential breadth shift, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Jan 14, 2026. Relative strength now favors IWM over SPY on a YTD basis, which is a key rotation indicator for equity long short and factor positioning models, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Jan 14, 2026. For crypto context, research has documented a higher correlation between Bitcoin and US equities since 2020, making equity breadth and leadership changes relevant inputs for crypto risk assessment, source: IMF Blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022.

According to @EricBalchunas, while ETFs overall took in $1.5 trillion in 2025, small-cap ETFs saw net outflows, indicating investor preference away from small-cap exposure (source: @EricBalchunas, Jan 9, 2026). He reports large caps have outperformed for five consecutive years, with small-cap allocations at a decade low and new small-cap ETF launches drying up, underscoring persistent dominance of large-cap factors over small caps (source: @EricBalchunas, Jan 9, 2026).

According to @BullTheoryio, the Russell 2000 ETF IWM just posted its highest monthly close and is testing 2025 range highs, a pattern the author links to rising US liquidity and stronger risk appetite that historically precede altcoin rallies, source: @BullTheoryio. The author states IWM has broken or retested major horizontal levels from 2015, 2018, and 2021, and in each instance BTC advanced first with altcoins following after a lag, which the author notes mirrors the present setup where IWM is at highs while BTC and alts remain below prior peaks, source: @BullTheoryio. The author adds that a multi-year bear market in BTC has not historically begun while IWM was making new highs, framing the current drawdown as mid-cycle rather than cycle end, source: @BullTheoryio. On BTC structure, the author asserts the higher timeframe uptrend from the 2022 lows remains intact despite some daily EMA breaks, with BTC attempting to re-couple with equities and broader risk assets, source: @BullTheoryio. On macro, the author cites that the Fed is already in a rate-cut cycle, some large banks expect QE-like actions by early 2026, and proposed fiscal policies such as income tax removal and tariff-based dividends could add liquidity, which together support an extended cycle into 2025-2026 rather than a new bear, source: @BullTheoryio.