According to @KobeissiLetter, Semafor reports that the U.S. has approved NVIDIA’s H200 chip sales to China, with the tweet attributing support to “US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick” and noting the item is pending confirmation by the Trump Administration. Source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Dec 8, 2025. The tweet frames this as market-moving and a new catalyst for the AI trade, implying renewed China demand for data center AI hardware. Source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Dec 8, 2025. Context: advanced AI chip exports to China have been restricted under U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) semiconductor rules issued in October 2022 and tightened in October 2023. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, BIS semiconductor export controls (Oct 2022 and Oct 2023). For trading verification, confirmation would typically arrive via a U.S. Department of Commerce/BIS announcement or an NVIDIA investor disclosure such as an SEC Form 8-K. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce/BIS public notices; U.S. SEC Form 8-K disclosure framework. Given the tweet’s framing of an AI-wide catalyst, market participants also monitor AI-themed crypto baskets tracked by major market data providers alongside NVDA and semiconductor ETFs when such policy headlines emerge. Source: CoinMarketCap AI category taxonomy; @KobeissiLetter on X, Dec 8, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China, citing a report from Semafor (source: @KobeissiLetter tweet on Dec 8, 2025; Semafor as cited). @KobeissiLetter states that NVDA is surging on the headline, indicating immediate bullish price action in Nvidia stock (source: @KobeissiLetter tweet on Dec 8, 2025). The same source notes the development is pending confirmation by President Trump, framing the headline as report-driven and not yet officially confirmed (source: @KobeissiLetter tweet on Dec 8, 2025). @KobeissiLetter adds that US chip companies may be reentering China’s AI market soon if the report is confirmed, suggesting positive read-through for US semiconductors’ China exposure (source: @KobeissiLetter tweet on Dec 8, 2025). For crypto traders, the source does not mention digital assets; any impact on AI-themed crypto tokens remains unconfirmed based on the available information (source: @KobeissiLetter tweet on Dec 8, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket pricing shows a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Wednesday, indicating the decision is heavily priced by prediction markets, source: @KobeissiLetter citing Polymarket, Dec 8, 2025. The post also states this would be the third rate cut of 2025, underscoring an ongoing easing trajectory, source: @KobeissiLetter, Dec 8, 2025. BTC and ETH volatility has historically risen around FOMC policy decisions, so if a cut is already priced, trader focus shifts to the statement and press conference for guidance on the pace of easing, source: Kaiko research on FOMC-day crypto volatility, 2023–2024. Event risk is concentrated in forward guidance and balance-of-risks language, which has been a key driver of crypto price action during prior rate announcements, source: Kaiko research on macro sensitivity of crypto, 2023–2024.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Netflix (NFLX) fell 3% to its lowest level since April 2025 after Paramount launched a hostile bid for Warner Brothers valued at $108 billion (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, NFLX is now down 28% from its record high reached six months ago, highlighting growing drawdown risk in streaming equities (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to IMF research, crypto prices have moved more in sync with U.S. equities since 2020, so tech-led risk sentiment shifts can coincide with short-term volatility in BTC and ETH during such headline shocks (source: IMF, 2022).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the AI Revolution is transforming nearly all parts of financial markets, reshaping the macroeconomy and creating cross-asset trading conditions, source: @KobeissiLetter (Twitter, Dec 8, 2025). The author states that stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable, highlighting actionable opportunities for crypto market participants within a broader multi-asset framework, source: @KobeissiLetter (Twitter, Dec 8, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, companies have announced 1.2 million job cuts in 2025 while 60% of Americans say the economy is in a recession. According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 has added roughly $17 trillion in market value since April and is nearing its 29th record high of 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, this divergence between rising layoffs, recession sentiment, and record equity valuations is the key market focus highlighted in the thread.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket currently prices just a 33% probability that the US enters a recession by 2027, with odds down about 11 percentage points since October 2025 and at their lowest level to date (source: Polymarket via @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, this market reading indicates the economy is not in or near a recession based on current prediction-market pricing (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to Polymarket, these probabilities are set by live on-chain trading, giving traders a real-time macro gauge that can be monitored alongside crypto positioning in BTC and ETH (source: Polymarket).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 is in one of its best runs on record, logging the 6th 35%+ six-month rally over the past 30+ years, signaling extreme equity momentum that traders track closely for cross-asset risk cues, source: The Kobeissi Letter (X, Dec 8, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter adds that despite these historic gains, most Americans believe the stock market is down, underscoring a sharp sentiment disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, source: The Kobeissi Letter (X, Dec 8, 2025). For crypto market participants, monitoring S&P 500 momentum as a macro risk indicator is relevant given documented periods of positive BTC–equity correlation in recent years, source: Kaiko Research (2023–2024). These observations suggest traders can align crypto risk exposure with equity trend strength and sentiment shifts highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter’s data, source: The Kobeissi Letter (X, Dec 8, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, continued rate cuts amid stagflation are fueling nominal appreciation across asset classes, making asset ownership the primary hedge against a widening wealth gap; source: @KobeissiLetter. For trading, this stance favors staying allocated to broad assets rather than idle cash and monitoring policy easing signals and inflation data to gauge the strength of the nominal upswing; source: @KobeissiLetter. Crypto participants track the same liquidity regime because correlations between crypto and equities increased notably after 2020, linking digital asset performance more closely to monetary conditions; source: International Monetary Fund (2022).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the top 10% of US stocks now account for a record 76% of total market cap, concentrating index performance in mega-caps that can keep pushing the S&P 500 to new highs (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, large companies do not need rate cuts to sustain momentum, while consumer-focused cuts are coming and could further support equity indices (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this concentration and policy backdrop underpin their forecast that the S&P 500 could reach 7000+ as leadership remains with mega-cap names (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025). For crypto traders, risk-on equity regimes have historically coincided with higher beta in BTC and ETH, making equity breadth and rates pricing key signals to monitor (source: IMF, "Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks," Jan 2022; The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Brothers at $30 per share just days after Netflix had reportedly won the bidding war, setting a clear headline offer level for price discovery, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, Paramount stated the Netflix transaction provides Warner Brothers shareholders with inferior and uncertain value, indicating a contested outcome relative to the prior result, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, no additional terms (cash or stock mix, financing, or timing) were disclosed in the post, and the post does not cite any cryptocurrency market linkage or tokenized equity exposure, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump said he will sign a 'one rule' Executive Order on AI this week and stated, 'You can’t expect a company to get 50 approvals every time they want to do something'; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025. The post signals near-term timing for a US AI policy action focused on simplifying approval processes, while providing no EO text, scope, agency details, or implementation guidance; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 8, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump is set to announce $12 billion in aid for farmers impacted by tariffs, highlighting direct fiscal support to the U.S. agricultural sector; source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Dec 8, 2025. The headline size aligns with the USDA’s 2018 tariff-related farm aid program of $12 billion, providing historical context for program scale and delivery mechanics; source: USDA press release on tariff relief programs, July 2018. For trading, instruments with direct exposure include front-month soybean futures ZS, corn ZC, wheat ZW, agribusiness equities, and the VanEck Agribusiness ETF MOO, which are standard hedges and proxies for farm income; source: CME Group product specifications and VanEck MOO factsheet. Macro policy headlines like this are tracked by crypto traders for risk sentiment; monitor BTC and ETH around the announcement window alongside USD and rates for potential volatility; source: CME Group Bitcoin futures product overview.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Kobeissi Letter for the week of December 8 has been published and is available at tinyurl.com/TheKobeissiLetter (source: The Kobeissi Letter tweet, Dec 7, 2025). The Chart of the Week for the same period is also published with free sign-up at tinyurl.com/TKLChartofWeek, giving traders timely access ahead of the new trading week (source: The Kobeissi Letter tweet, Dec 7, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, London copper prices hit a record $11,620 per ton on Friday, up over 30% year-to-date, driven by aggressive US stockpiling ahead of potential import tariffs next year. According to @KobeissiLetter, inventories on global exchanges have surged to 656,000 tons, the highest since 2018, with roughly 60% now held in US COMEX warehouses. According to @KobeissiLetter, the copper market is expected to shift into a structural deficit next year, suggesting continued upside pressure on prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 717 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this tally is higher than every full-year total since 2010 and marks the third consecutive annual increase with a 93% jump since 2022 (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X). According to The Kobeissi Letter, November saw 62 large-firm filings after 68 in October and 66 in September, underscoring persistent stress (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X). According to The Kobeissi Letter, bankruptcies in 2025 are running 30% above the 2011–2024 annual average (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X). According to The Kobeissi Letter, corporate bankruptcies are surging outside of the AI trade, a context traders can reference when assessing cross-asset risk, including BTC and ETH sentiment (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the week’s key events are September JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, the December Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, the OPEC Monthly Report on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and a U.S. 30-year Treasury bond auction, forming the core trading calendar to monitor for cross-asset risk, source: The Kobeissi Letter. JOLTS tracks job openings and labor demand conditions and is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while Initial Jobless Claims measure weekly unemployment insurance filings from the U.S. Department of Labor, providing near-term reads on labor tightness that traders track for macro momentum, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of Labor. The Federal Reserve will set the target range for the federal funds rate and communicate guidance via the post-meeting statement and Powell’s press conference, events that the Kobeissi Letter highlights as central market catalysts this week, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; The Kobeissi Letter. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report delivers production, demand, and inventory assessments that can influence crude benchmarks and inflation expectations viewed by rates traders, source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The U.S. 30-year bond auction determines awarded yields and allocation across bidder classes, shaping the long-end Treasury benchmark closely watched by markets for discount-rate implications, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Crypto market participants in BTC and ETH commonly align event risk around these macro releases given their cross-asset relevance, with this week’s schedule flagged by The Kobeissi Letter as the primary catalyst map, source: The Kobeissi Letter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US heavy truck sales fell 47% over the last three months versus the prior three months to a 363,000 annualized pace, the lowest since 2020, with declines in four of the last five months (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author adds that such a rapid drop has only occurred during recessions historically and reflects weakening freight, construction, and industrial demand, pointing to a substantial headwind to US GDP growth in H2 2025 (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author also notes the AI trade is decoupled from these macro signals, a divergence traders can reference when assessing risk across cyclicals, high beta, and digital assets such as BTC and ETH (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the median Russell 2000 stock has short interest of 5.5% of market cap, the highest among major indices. According to @KobeissiLetter, this exceeds the 2.5% for Nasdaq-100 stocks and 2.4% for S&P 500 stocks, with the S&P 500 figure at a seven-year high. According to @KobeissiLetter, short exposure in the median S&P 500 stock has risen by 1.0 percentage point over the last three years compared with a 30-year long-term average of 1.9%. According to @KobeissiLetter, short interest in the Information Technology and Commercial Services sectors stands at 2.4% and 2.0%, both below historical norms, while investors are betting heavily against small-cap and defensive sectors.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US home delistings rose by 18,460 year over year (+28%) in September to 84,278, marking the highest September level since 2017, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, a home is considered delisted if it remains off the market for over 31 days without selling or going under contract, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, delistings have increased by 38,527 (+84%) over the last four years, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, delistings now represent 5.5% of all active listings, the highest September share since at least 2016, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the typical delisted home sat on the market for 100 days before being pulled, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, these readings signal a frozen US housing market, source: @KobeissiLetter.