According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US bond market’s MOVE Index dropped to 67 last week, its lowest since November 2021, signaling easing Treasury yield volatility across 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities, source: The Kobeissi Letter. The MOVE Index has declined by 73 points since April as conditions stabilized following the post–"Liberation Day" sell-off tied to President Trump, source: The Kobeissi Letter. The easing in rates volatility has been supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and October and by corporate credit spreads at their lowest level of the century, source: The Kobeissi Letter. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 70 basis points to 4.10% since January, indicating softer long-end rates, source: The Kobeissi Letter. For crypto and risk-asset positioning, traders can treat the reported decline in rates volatility and yields as reduced macro shock risk and monitor BTC and ETH sensitivity to US yields for potential carry and trend opportunities, source: The Kobeissi Letter.

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a mid-cycle shakeout alongside heightened bond market volatility, but this cannot be independently verified here; please provide a primary data source such as an exchange price feed, TradingView chart, or on-chain dataset to confirm the move and price level. Source: request for primary market data. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and rate volatility typically tighten financial conditions, pressure risk assets, and have historically coincided with BTC drawdowns. Source: Federal Reserve; ICE BofA MOVE Index. A stronger U.S. dollar (DXY) often correlates with weaker BTC performance during risk-off episodes; sustained DXY uptrends are a headwind for crypto beta. Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Negative or declining BTC perpetual funding rates alongside falling open interest indicate deleveraging and reduced long exposure, conditions that often precede volatility reversals. Source: Binance Futures; Deribit; Coinglass. Spot-perp basis turning deeply negative can signal capitulation and potential short-covering fuel when liquidity returns. Source: Deribit; Binance; Glassnode. On-chain stress gauges such as realized price bands and long-term holder SOPR near or below 1 have historically aligned with mid-cycle correction lows and subsequent recoveries. Source: Glassnode.

According to Andre Dragosch, BTC accelerates when U.S. governance quality deteriorates and the dollar weakens, implying a risk-hedge bid for crypto during macro stress (source: Andre Dragosch on X, Aug 17, 2025). Historically, BTC has shown extended periods of negative 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, indicating that USD weakness often coincided with BTC strength for multi-week windows (source: Kaiko Research market updates 2023-2024). In Q4 2023, a drop in DXY from the mid-100s was accompanied by a sharp BTC rally, illustrating the inverse USD–BTC relationship in practice (source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and Coin Metrics price series, Q4 2023). BTC has also tended to move inversely with U.S. real yields, with declines in 10-year TIPS yields aligning with broader risk-on behavior in digital assets (source: Coin Metrics and Glassnode research briefs 2022-2024). Traders commonly monitor DXY, 10-year real yields, and Treasury volatility via the MOVE Index to time BTC breakouts around policy or liquidity shocks (source: Coinbase Institutional weekly markets commentary 2023-2024).

According to @godbole17, U.S. bond volatility has collapsed with the MOVE index dropping to its lowest level since January 2022, signaling looser financial conditions, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, the decline in the bond market’s VIX supports risk-on positioning in equities and crypto, especially BTC and ETH, source: @godbole17.