According to @AltcoinDaily, peak pessimism often hides the best trade setups and staying curious with daily research helps find them early, even if you are on the sidelines. Source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Dec 9, 2025. Historically, crypto bottom zones aligned with capitulation metrics such as record realized losses, deeply negative funding rates, and NUPL flipping to capitulation before multi‑month recoveries in BTC and ETH after the March 2020 crash and the November 2022 drawdown. Source: Glassnode The Week On-Chain, Mar 30, 2020 and Nov 21, 2022; CryptoQuant funding rate datasets. Traders can operationalize this by maintaining a watchlist and setting alerts for funding-rate flips, realized-loss dominance, and exchange net outflows tracked by on-chain analytics to source asymmetric entries during fear. Source: Glassnode dashboards; CryptoQuant exchange flow metrics. Incremental position sizing and dollar-cost averaging can reduce timing risk when re-entering volatile markets. Source: Vanguard Research 2012, Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later; CFA Institute risk management guidance. These signals and processes align with the research-first approach highlighted by @AltcoinDaily and can help identify setups before they hit the timeline. Source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Dec 9, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, Bitcoin (BTC) crossed $115.7K while 76% of BTC supply is held by long-term holders, indicating strong conviction and a solid base (source: @cas_abbe). NUPL is at 0.54 in the optimism zone, suggesting sentiment is constructive but below euphoria with room to run (source: @cas_abbe). On-chain activity has cooled as active addresses fell 6% and adjusted volume dropped 26% to $17.3B, framed as consolidation rather than decline (source: @cas_abbe). Derivatives show steady inflows with open interest at $79.8B and liquidations skewed $49M shorts versus $3M longs, indicating the market is fighting the upside and vulnerable to further short squeezes (source: @cas_abbe). Ownership remains distributed with the top 100 holders controlling 14.9% of supply, and both short- and long-term trends are turning bullish per the author (source: @cas_abbe).

According to @glassnode, on-chain activity has softened, with active addresses down 2% to 692k and now below the low band (source: @glassnode). Fees fell 17%, pointing to reduced blockspace demand and lower user activity intensity (source: @glassnode). Realized Cap Change slowed to 3.2%, indicating cooler net capital inflows on-chain (source: @glassnode). The share of supply in profit declined from 95% to 91%, while NUPL dropped to 5%, signaling fading profitability and softer risk appetite (source: @glassnode). Overall, these on-chain indicators reflect weaker demand and waning profitability, a backdrop traders monitor for momentum shifts and liquidity conditions (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, the Net Unrealized Profit to Loss (NUPL) ratio has risen significantly, indicating the market may be entering a state of euphoria with elevated unrealized profit margins. This on-chain metric suggests a heightened risk of imminent profit-taking, as investors could be increasingly motivated to sell and capitalize on their substantial gains.

According to @glassnode, while Bitcoin futures positioning and ETF inflows suggested strong market conviction, key on-chain data indicated the market was approaching saturation just before the recent correction. Analysis from @glassnode showed that 98.9% of the BTC supply was in profit, realized gains were accelerating, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric was reaching euphoria levels. These metrics collectively served as strong indicators that a market pullback was imminent.

According to Crypto Rover, Bitcoin has entered the euphoria/greed zone on the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator. This signal historically precedes significant price increases, as seen in 2017 when it appeared at $1.3K before Bitcoin peaked at $20K, and in 2021, when it flashed at $20K before the price rose to $64K. The indicator has been showing this signal for two months, suggesting traders should closely monitor potential market movements (source: Crypto Rover).