According to Crypto Rover (@rovercrc), Polymarket betting odds now make three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 the most likely outcome. Source: Crypto Rover tweet dated Sep 11, 2025; Polymarket prediction market. Traders typically view a lower policy path as supportive for risk assets like BTC and ETH because easier financial conditions and lower real yields tend to boost liquidity and risk appetite. Source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report May 2023; BIS Quarterly Review September 2022. Historically, rising expectations for rate cuts have coincided with stronger performance in high‑beta assets, a pattern relevant for BTC and ETH positioning when cut odds lead on venues like Polymarket. Source: BIS Quarterly Review September 2022; IMF Global Financial Stability Report October 2020.

According to Francisco Rodrigues, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $106,000 with a 0.9% daily gain as President Trump delayed U.S. intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, reducing immediate war risk odds on Polymarket from 70% to 40%. However, CryptoQuant analysts project a potential BTC drop to $92,000 if demand fails to rebound, citing a 60% decline in ETF flows since April and halved whale buying. Glassnode highlighted subdued on-chain activity indicating institutional dominance.