According to @BullTheoryio, BTC erased the entire pre-FOMC pump within 12 hours as whales took profits after a widely expected rate cut and a $40B T-bill purchase plan that many traders had already front-run, triggering the first leg of the sell-off, source: @BullTheoryio. The post adds that Chair Powell highlighted a weak labor market and still-elevated inflation, while the Fed dot plot pointed to only one cut in 2026, increasing uncertainty and pressuring risk assets after the US cash close, source: @BullTheoryio. @BullTheoryio reports that Oracle’s Q2 missed adjusted revenue and guided higher capex, sending ORCL down 11–12% after hours, dragging US stock futures lower and spilling risk-off sentiment into crypto amid fears the AI trade is peaking, source: @BullTheoryio. The author summarizes five overlapping drivers: the cut was fully priced in, liquidity trades were front-run, Powell offered no strong easing signal, ORCL earnings hit AI/tech sentiment, and profit-taking accelerated as uncertainty rose, source: @BullTheoryio. Despite the dump, the post argues the broader backdrop remains supportive with three consecutive cuts, $40B in T-bill buys over the next 30 days, no hike as the base case, and softer labor data giving room to ease if needed, source: @BullTheoryio. The move is framed as expectations outrunning reality rather than a shift to bearish fundamentals, which keeps the liquidity narrative relevant for crypto even as positioning resets, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @MI_Algos, FireCharts shows guardrails in the BTC/USDT order book on Binance at $85,000 and $94,000, highlighting concentrated liquidity at these key levels for BTC price action; source: @MI_Algos on X. @MI_Algos noted that this setup is commonly observed on Federal Reserve rate cut announcement days; source: @MI_Algos on X. @MI_Algos also warned that it is common for one of these levels to spoof after Chair Powell’s news conference, implying potential post-press-conference order book instability; source: @MI_Algos on X.

According to @BullTheoryio, the FOMC will release its interest rate decision today at 2 pm ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET. According to @BullTheoryio, a 25 bps cut is expected with roughly 90% odds. According to @BullTheoryio, a rate cut with clear guidance for further cuts or liquidity support could push markets higher, while a neutral tone could lead to a mixed reaction with short-term volatility. According to @BullTheoryio, hints of balance-sheet support or QE-style actions later in 2026 would be viewed as strong upside as markets price in future liquidity. According to @BullTheoryio, a hawkish tone tied to inflation concerns could trigger a market dump.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the week’s key events are September JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, the December Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, the OPEC Monthly Report on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and a U.S. 30-year Treasury bond auction, forming the core trading calendar to monitor for cross-asset risk, source: The Kobeissi Letter. JOLTS tracks job openings and labor demand conditions and is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while Initial Jobless Claims measure weekly unemployment insurance filings from the U.S. Department of Labor, providing near-term reads on labor tightness that traders track for macro momentum, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of Labor. The Federal Reserve will set the target range for the federal funds rate and communicate guidance via the post-meeting statement and Powell’s press conference, events that the Kobeissi Letter highlights as central market catalysts this week, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; The Kobeissi Letter. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report delivers production, demand, and inventory assessments that can influence crude benchmarks and inflation expectations viewed by rates traders, source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The U.S. 30-year bond auction determines awarded yields and allocation across bidder classes, shaping the long-end Treasury benchmark closely watched by markets for discount-rate implications, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Crypto market participants in BTC and ETH commonly align event risk around these macro releases given their cross-asset relevance, with this week’s schedule flagged by The Kobeissi Letter as the primary catalyst map, source: The Kobeissi Letter.