According to @BullTheoryio, Japan is considering a 17 trillion yen approximately 110 billion dollars fiscal stimulus with cash support, tax relief and sector incentives, which has historically weakened the yen and pushed capital into higher return global risk assets, with Bitcoin BTC often leading the reaction because it prices liquidity faster than equities. Source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the United States backdrop is turning more liquidity friendly with the shutdown resolved, the Treasury General Account near 960 billion dollars and JPMorgan expecting about 300 billion dollars to flow out of the TGA over the next four weeks, while quantitative tightening is slowing and expected to end on December 1. Source: @BullTheoryio citing JPMorgan. According to @BullTheoryio, China is injecting over 1 trillion yuan per week into the economy, reinforcing a global shift toward easier liquidity compared with Q4 2021. Source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, these cross market liquidity drivers suggest the latest BTC pullback looks like a bear trap before a potential next move, with risk assets positioned to benefit first from the easing impulse. Source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @GracyBitget, BTC price action is now primarily dictated by US domestic liquidity, with Wall Street-led institutional flows via spot BTC ETFs increasingly setting direction (source: @GracyBitget; Forbes). She adds that capital from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia tends to favor gold and equities, which she argues helps explain this year’s strength in gold, US AI stocks, and China’s STAR 50 index (source: @GracyBitget). As a near-term catalyst, she points to Polymarket odds that the US government shutdown could end around Nov 14, which would restore fiscal outlays and ease liquidity pressure (source: @GracyBitget citing Polymarket). She further argues that if the Federal Reserve halts quantitative tightening in December and begins a rate-cut cycle, BTC should be among the first risk assets to benefit due to its high sensitivity to liquidity (source: @GracyBitget). On targets, she reiterates that once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed turns dovish, BTC can exceed $130,000 and attempt $150,000–$200,000, framing the timing as this Q4 or next Q1 (source: @GracyBitget). She discloses a fully allocated crypto position while noting NFA, underscoring conviction in a new BTC all-time high if liquidity pivots as outlined (source: @GracyBitget).

According to @BullTheoryio, overnight Fed repo usage jumped to $29.4B, the highest daily level in nearly five years, indicating rising dollar funding stress and tighter liquidity conditions (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, this surge arrived just days after a 25 bps rate cut and Chair Powell’s guidance that further cuts are not guaranteed, underscoring a hawkish tilt despite mounting liquidity needs (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan signaled that if the rise in repo rates persists the Fed may need to buy assets again, and she supported ending QT, pointing to an earlier-than-expected policy pivot if funding pressures endure (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the setup echoes late 2019 when repo stress preceded liquidity injections and multi‑month risk‑asset rallies, suggesting traders should watch SRF usage, SOFR prints, and QT pace for confirmation (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, renewed liquidity historically supports risk assets and Bitcoin BTC tends to follow when liquidity returns, making the current dislocation a potential medium‑term upside risk for crypto if policy eases (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to Cas Abbé, the FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET and markets are already expecting a 25 bps cut, implying limited immediate impact on crypto price action, source: Cas Abbé on X, Oct 29, 2025. According to Cas Abbé, traders should focus on the Fed’s decision on quantitative tightening (QT) and Chair Powell’s 2:30pm ET press conference for liquidity signals, source: Cas Abbé on X, Oct 29, 2025. According to Cas Abbé, if the Fed ends QT and Powell signals more easing, it would be very bullish for altcoins, source: Cas Abbé on X, Oct 29, 2025.

According to the source, analysts argue that an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) would likely be a stronger upside catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) than a single policy rate cut because halting balance sheet runoff stops USD liquidity from shrinking (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, May 1, 2024; Board of Governors H.4.1 statistical release). Traders should watch the FOMC statement and Chair Powell’s remarks for any signal of ending or further slowing QT, including changes to Treasury/MBS runoff caps or reinvestment guidance, which directly affect the pace of reserve creation (source: Federal Reserve, FOMC communications). Immediate cross-asset reads for BTC include the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the 2-year Treasury yield, and 10-year real yields, where a weaker dollar and falling real yields typically coincide with easier financial conditions that have supported risk assets historically (sources: ICE for DXY; U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve for yields). Rate-cut odds are commonly tracked via futures-implied probabilities on the CME FedWatch Tool, which helps quantify policy path expectations for trade timing around the decision (source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool).

According to @rovercrc, quantitative tightening could stop soon and quantitative easing might return, which the author states would be insanely bullish for Bitcoin (BTC), source: @rovercrc on X, Oct 18, 2025. For traders, this post signals a pro-liquidity macro stance and a bullish bias toward BTC if such policy shifts occur, source: @rovercrc on X, Oct 18, 2025.