According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 has gone 37 sessions without a 1 percent daily drop, the longest run in a year, with the prior five-year high at 53 sessions, and 108 sessions without a 2 percent drop, the longest since July 2024 per Bloomberg, marking the second-longest calm since before the 2020 crash despite two red closes (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Bloomberg). For market risk gauges, VIX is widely used to track implied S&P 500 volatility and is monitored for shifts in risk sentiment during such low-realized-volatility streaks (source: Cboe Global Markets). For crypto spillovers, the IMF has documented that BTC and U.S. equities became more correlated after 2020 and that volatility spillovers intensified during stress episodes, making equity volatility regimes relevant for digital assets (source: IMF). Kaiko has reported that BTC–equity correlations reached multi-year lows at times in 2024, highlighting regime variability that traders consider when assessing BTC and ETH sensitivity to equity volatility changes (source: Kaiko).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has recorded a 25+ point reversal into the close for the second consecutive day. The first reversal occurred before announcements of a potential 50% tariff on the EU and 25% tariffs targeting Apple (AAPL), while the latest reversal happened without any prominent headlines (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 23, 2025). These abrupt moves highlight heightened market volatility linked to tariff threats, increasing uncertainty for equity and crypto traders. Such volatility in traditional markets often leads to increased capital flows into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative risk hedges, which traders should monitor for potential price action shifts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 index has experienced 2% price moves in either direction on 23% of trading days in 2025, equating to at least once per week, making it one of the most volatile years in recent history. This level of volatility is the highest since 2022, which saw a 29% full-year rate. For traders, this extreme volatility signals expanded risk and opportunity, increasing the importance of position sizing, stop-loss strategies, and short-term momentum trading. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (Twitter, April 27, 2025).