According to the source, Polymarket traders are pricing a 94% chance of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 as of Sep 30, 2025 (source: Polymarket prediction market data). A federal shutdown would significantly scale back SEC operations, delaying registrations, rulemaking, and approvals that can affect crypto ETFs and exchange listings (source: SEC Operations Plan Under a Lapse in Appropriations). The CFTC also operates with limited staff during shutdowns, which can slow oversight of crypto derivatives markets including CME Bitcoin futures and options (source: CFTC Lapse in Appropriations Plan). Shutdowns typically halt or delay major U.S. economic data releases, increasing macro uncertainty and potential volatility in risk assets such as BTC and ETH, which have shown rising correlation with equities (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency guidance; IMF research on crypto–equity correlation). The 2018–2019 shutdown reduced real GDP by an estimated 11 billion dollars with 3 billion dollars permanently lost, highlighting potential demand headwinds if a closure is prolonged (source: Congressional Budget Office 2019 report). Treasury debt service continues during shutdowns, so core T-bill plumbing remains functional, a key consideration for stablecoins that hold short-term Treasuries in reserves such as USDC (source: U.S. Treasury operations guidance; Circle reserve disclosures).

According to the source, prediction market Kalshi prices a 70% probability that the U.S. government will shut down on Wednesday, signaling elevated policy risk into month‑end and early October (source: Kalshi). If a lapse in appropriations occurs, the SEC will scale to excepted operations, pausing most registrations and reviews, which can delay ETF and rulemaking timelines that crypto traders track closely (source: U.S. SEC Lapse in Appropriations Plan). A shutdown also postpones major macro releases such as the jobs report and CPI, reducing rate visibility and typically boosting event risk premia into deadlines, a dynamic options traders monitor for implied volatility in crypto (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan; Deribit Insights). For Uptober seasonality, Bitcoin has logged multiple positive Octobers historically, but positioning should be anchored to the dollar and yields given the documented inverse relationship between BTC and DXY/real yields observed in recent market research (source: CoinGlass monthly returns dashboard; Kaiko Research).