According to the source, the post highlights expert debate on whether Bitcoin has bottomed, prompting traders to verify with on-chain, technical, and flows data (source post). Historically, BTC bottoms are confirmed when price reclaims and holds both the 200-week moving average and the realized price, marking the end of undervaluation phases (Fidelity Digital Assets; Glassnode Research). Bottoming phases often align with MVRV rising back above 1 after an extended period below 1, while SOPR resets near 1 indicate spent-profit exhaustion and reduced sell pressure (Glassnode Research). Derivatives sentiment typically normalizes as funding turns from negative to neutral and futures basis compresses with falling open interest, signaling deleveraging typical of cycle lows (Binance Research; CME Group). Miner capitulation and subsequent recovery, reflected by Puell Multiple sub-0.5 followed by rebound and Hash Ribbons bullish cross, have historically coincided with durable bottoms (Glassnode Research; Capriole Investments). Renewed spot demand is often preceded by net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising stablecoin balances on exchanges, supporting price floors via incremental buy-side liquidity (Farside Investors; CryptoQuant). Macro headwinds easing, such as stabilizing real yields which historically pressure risk assets, can further support bottom confirmations in crypto risk appetite regimes (FRED; Coin Metrics).

According to the source, a slow decline in long-term Bitcoin holder supply implies the bull cycle is likely ongoing rather than nearing a final peak, which is consistent with prior mid-cycle distribution phases observed in on-chain data. Source: Glassnode research. Historically, cycle tops tend to coincide with an accelerated drop in long-term holder supply alongside rising exchange inflows from older coins and a persistent long-term holder SOPR above 1 indicating profitable distribution. Source: Glassnode Week On-Chain and CryptoQuant insights. For trading, monitor long-term holder net position change turning sharply negative, a pickup in 6 to 18 month coin age inflows to exchanges, and an expansion in realized cap HODL waves for newer cohorts as signs of maturing top risk. Source: Glassnode and CryptoQuant. Confirm with leverage metrics such as elevated perpetual funding rates and rising open interest coupled with on-chain distribution to gauge exhaustion risk before adjusting BTC exposure. Source: CryptoQuant and Deribit Insights.

According to glassnode, BTC's Short-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has reached -12.8K coin days/hr, indicating a significant fear-driven sell-off. This metric, adjusted with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), mirrors the market conditions of August 2024, suggesting a similar economic weight of spent coins during sell-offs.

According to @glassnode, the SOPR and Realized Loss Z-Scores for BTC have not reached exhaustion levels, suggesting that a market bottom is not yet confirmed. Traders should be aware of potential downside risk until these indicators align, signaling a possible bottoming process.