According to @EricBalchunas, the U.S. jobs report is delayed and any outcome will be both bad and good for markets, framing a trade-off between an improving economy and the appeal of rate cuts. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676 Traders should structure scenarios around this trade-off: if markets prefer signs of improving growth, the implication is reduced urgency for rate cuts; if markets prefer rate cuts, the path of yields becomes the dominant driver of risk appetite. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676 For crypto, this means monitoring rates expectations and Treasury yields as key inputs for beta exposure in BTC and ETH around the release and immediate aftermath. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. is on a fiscal path that guarantees 100% certainty of long-run bankruptcy and will require short-term pain for long-term gain, citing President Trump’s trade-war framing as context, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. According to @KobeissiLetter, the post also links Elon Musk to DOGE and references his criticism of a spending bill in June, highlighting DOGE as a focal asset, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For factual clarity, Dogecoin was created by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013; Elon Musk did not found DOGE, source: Dogecoin Foundation and Wikipedia. The Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt and net interest costs to climb to record levels over the long term, aligning with the post’s fiscal-risk theme that traders watch for macro liquidity implications, source: CBO 2024 Long-Term Budget Outlook. DOGE has historically shown outsized price reactions to Elon Musk’s posts, making headline risk a concrete, short-term trading catalyst for DOGE, source: Reuters coverage of Musk-related DOGE moves in 2021.

According to @QCPgroup, the dollar strengthened, Treasury yields moved higher, gold came under pressure, and equities stayed resilient despite this macro shift (source: @QCPgroup). For crypto traders, this update signals a changing macro backdrop to incorporate into BTC and ETH positioning and risk management, with equity resilience tempering the tighter-rate backdrop identified by @QCPgroup (source: @QCPgroup).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US deficit spending crisis should be the top economic priority, spending keeps rising, DOGE was mentioned as having attempted to solve it, and Donald Trump vowed to use tariff revenue to reduce the deficit. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 13, 2025. For trading, persistent fiscal deficits increase Treasury borrowing needs and issuance, which can pressure yields and tighten financial conditions that typically weigh on risk assets including major cryptocurrencies. Source: U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement, Nov 2023; IMF blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022. Tariff-related headlines tend to be inflationary and can lift rate expectations, a backdrop that has historically added volatility across equities and crypto. Source: Federal Reserve Board research on tariff pass-through to U.S. prices, 2019; Kaiko market commentary on macro-event-driven crypto volatility, 2023. Mentions of DOGE can catalyze memecoin flows during policy news cycles, so monitor DOGE liquidity and funding rates around fiscal and trade policy headlines. Source: Binance Research memecoin market structure and liquidity, 2023; Kaiko memecoin liquidity reports, 2024.

According to @rovercrc, a September rate cut is coming and could drive trillions of dollars into Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto, per an X post on August 11, 2025. According to @rovercrc, the post does not include an official Federal Reserve source, so the claim remains unverified by the central bank at the time of posting. According to the Federal Reserve, policy-rate decisions are only confirmed via official FOMC statements and releases on federalreserve.gov, so traders should wait for official communication before sizing positions. According to the Federal Reserve’s explanation of monetary policy transmission, liquidity conditions can shift after rate decisions, so BTC traders can monitor FOMC announcements, US Treasury yield moves, and BTC spot and futures basis for volatility around policy updates.

According to Aaron Brogan and Jean-Marie Mognetti, recent crypto IPOs, including Circle's market cap surge to $43.9 billion, indicate robust institutional demand and potential trading opportunities. Brogan cited public market premiums, such as MicroStrategy's BTC holdings, and regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act as key drivers for stablecoin issuers like USDC. Mognetti's survey revealed that nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase allocations, emphasizing advisors must provide transparent risk management to capitalize on market growth.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, bond yields continue to rise even amid escalating conflict between two major global powers, as seen in recent market data (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 13, 2025). This persistence in high yields signals ongoing risk aversion and tightening liquidity, which can increase volatility across equity and crypto markets. Traders should monitor the impact of rising yields on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices, as higher rates often pressure risk assets and may lead to further downside or choppy trading conditions. Adjusting portfolio allocations and watching for correlations between treasury yields and crypto price movements remain critical for informed trading decisions.

According to André Dragosch, PhD (@Andre_Dragosch), the Federal Reserve appears to be losing control over certain segments of the 10-year Treasury yield, as indicated by recent yield movements. This loss of control could lead to heightened market volatility and risk-off sentiment, which historically correlates with increased Bitcoin (BTC) price swings and significant crypto market reactions. Traders should monitor Treasury yield trends closely, as rapid changes in yields often precede major BTC and altcoin market shifts. Source: Twitter/@Andre_Dragosch, June 13, 2025.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the ongoing confirmation of bearish divergence in US 2-year yields points to a continued downward trend, accompanied by rising M2 supply and a consolidation phase for gold. For traders, this macro trend suggests a shift towards risk-on assets, which historically benefits the cryptocurrency market as lower yields and higher liquidity often drive capital into BTC and ETH. Monitoring US Treasury yields and M2 money supply fluctuations is crucial for anticipating volatility and potential bullish momentum in digital assets. (Source: Twitter @CryptoMichNL, June 12, 2025)

According to Edward Dowd, a recent report highlights early signs of a brewing housing market crisis, forecasting a drop in treasury yields and a trend toward disinflation in the coming months. These macroeconomic shifts may lead to reduced risk appetites in traditional markets, which could drive increased volatility and potential capital flows into cryptocurrencies as alternative assets. Traders should monitor treasury yield trends and housing market data closely for signals that could trigger renewed crypto market momentum or risk-off moves. (Source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 27, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are exhibiting strong positive reactions to the recent pullback in treasury yields, as seen on May 27, 2025 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter). Lower yields typically make risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive, driving increased trading volumes and bullish sentiment in Bitcoin and major altcoins. Crypto traders should monitor treasury movements closely, as sustained lower yields may fuel further inflows into digital assets, enhancing price momentum in the near term (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, financial markets showed significant sensitivity to the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, driving a broad rally across risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 27, 2025). Lower yields have historically boosted crypto prices by making alternative assets more attractive, and today's market reaction reinforced this correlation. For traders, sustained lower yields could depend on factors such as dovish Federal Reserve policy, moderated inflation, and stable economic growth (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Monitoring yield trends remains crucial for active crypto traders, as further declines may trigger additional upside in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the weekly analysis for May 26th highlights significant market trends and technical chart patterns impacting both equities and cryptocurrency markets. The Chart of the Week features in-depth analysis of macroeconomic indicators, including US Treasury yields and S&P 500 index performance, which historically correlate with Bitcoin price movements (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 26th, 2025). Traders are advised to monitor shifts in equity volatility and bond yields, as these can signal potential volatility in major crypto assets. The Kobeissi Letter's data-driven approach offers actionable signals for both traditional and digital asset traders.

According to Bloomberg (@business), several prominent hedge funds, including Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management, have disclosed significant short positions against US Treasuries, citing rising interest rates and inflationary pressures (source: Bloomberg, June 2024). This bearish sentiment towards government bonds is fueled by expectations of continued Federal Reserve tightening, which historically leads to bond price declines and higher yields. For crypto traders, these macro trends may drive increased volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as institutional investors seek alternative assets during bond market stress (source: CoinDesk, June 2024). Traders should monitor Treasury yields and Fed policy announcements closely, as shifts in bond markets can trigger capital flows into or out of digital assets.

According to @markets, the bond market is showing complex signals as $IEF, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, is up both today and year-to-date, even though Treasury yields have climbed, challenging the prevailing 'Sell America' narrative. This divergence comes while the S&P 500 has rebounded, suggesting renewed risk-on sentiment. For crypto traders, this reflects shifting institutional risk appetite that could influence Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, as increased bond buying may signal hedging behavior or expectations for policy shifts (source: @markets, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance).

According to StockMKTNewz, the US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.15%, marking its highest level since October 2023 (source: StockMKTNewz on Twitter, May 22, 2025). This significant rise in long-term yields is increasing risk-off sentiment across financial markets, leading to volatility in both traditional equities and cryptocurrency assets. Elevated yields typically strengthen the US dollar, which can pressure Bitcoin and altcoin prices as global investors seek safer returns in bonds. Crypto traders should closely monitor bond yield trends, as further increases could trigger additional outflows from risk assets and impact short-term trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the latest US 20-year bond auction resulted in a 1.2 basis point tail, the largest recorded since December, as reported by ZeroHedge. The auction closed with a high yield of 5.047%, marking only the second time in history that the 20-year yield surpassed 5%. This sharp move signals increased risk aversion and tighter financial conditions in traditional markets. For crypto traders, such a jump in bond yields may trigger capital outflows from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors seek higher returns in fixed income. The heightened volatility in bond markets underscores the need for crypto market participants to monitor Treasury yield trends closely for potential short-term price swings. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, ZeroHedge)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, today’s US bond auction saw notably weak demand, resulting in a higher-than-expected yield of 5.047% compared to the anticipated 5.035% (source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter, May 21, 2025). This weaker demand signals risk-off sentiment among traditional investors, causing bond prices to fall and yields to rise. Historically, such yield spikes often lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market as traders anticipate shifts in liquidity and risk appetite. Crypto investors should closely monitor US Treasury auctions, as elevated yields can pressure digital asset prices by drawing capital away from risk assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US government interest payments declined by $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 to an annualized $1.11 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2024 and marking the first quarterly decrease since 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 7, 2025). For crypto traders, this easing in government debt costs could reduce pressure on Treasury yields and potentially benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as lowered yields may drive more capital toward alternative investments. However, the interest expense remains twice as high as previous years, maintaining long-term fiscal concerns that continue to influence crypto market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, as cited by ZeroHedge, the ADP Employment Report showed the US economy added just 62,000 jobs in April 2025, marking the lowest figure since July 2024. This weaker-than-expected jobs number caused US Treasury yields to sell off immediately, reflecting trader anticipation of slower economic growth and potential shifts in monetary policy. For crypto traders, softer employment data can signal increased risk aversion and a possible shift in capital flows, potentially affecting digital asset valuations and market volatility (source: The Kobeissi Letter via ZeroHedge, April 30, 2025).