According to @KobeissiLetter on X (Sep 22, 2025), stocks are rising like the US economy is booming while oil prices are falling like a recession is approaching, highlighting a sharp cross-asset divergence relevant for crypto risk management, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, gold is climbing as if the Fed is cutting into inflation and Bitcoin BTC is declining as if Fed rate cuts are being postponed, pointing to policy expectations pressuring digital assets, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, home prices are rising as if more rate cuts are coming and Treasury yields are rising like stagflation has arrived, framing a new era of monetary policy that could drive BTC liquidity and volatility through yield and policy expectations, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Sep 22, 2025.

According to the source, the U.S. Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, as stated in a post on X dated Sep 16, 2025; source: X post dated Sep 16, 2025. Board members influence monetary policy and supervision through their roles alongside the FOMC, making composition changes relevant for markets; source: Federal Reserve Board — About the Board of Governors. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch implied rate probabilities, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield, and DXY for any repricing that can spill over to BTC and ETH given their sensitivity to liquidity and real yields noted in institutional research; source: CME Group FedWatch Tool; Coinbase Institutional macro research on crypto and rates (2023). Track the upcoming FOMC calendar and statements to gauge participation timing and any changes in forward guidance or dot plot that may impact crypto risk appetite; source: Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar and policy statements.

According to @rovercrc, President Trump believes the Federal Reserve will deliver a big rate cut this week and frames it as bullish for markets, source: @rovercrc. Rate decisions are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee and become official only when communicated by the FOMC, not the White House, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. If a cut occurs, looser policy generally eases financial conditions and supports liquidity transmission that can favor risk assets such as BTC and ETH, source: Federal Reserve Board materials on monetary policy transmission. For trade validation, monitor three signals: front-end Treasury yields and fed funds futures pricing for cuts, the US Dollar Index direction, and BTC perpetual funding plus open interest to gauge leverage, source: CME Group FedWatch and futures data, ICE Data Indices for DXY, and exchange derivatives dashboards such as CME and major crypto venues. Until an official FOMC statement confirms a move, treat this as unverified headline risk and adjust position sizing and stops accordingly, source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements archive.

According to @rovercrc, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this week has risen to 100%, indicating markets are positioned for an imminent policy cut (source: @rovercrc). Market-implied FOMC odds are commonly tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool, which derives probabilities from Fed funds futures pricing (source: CME Group). Fed policy shifts are key drivers of USD, Treasury yields, and liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH, with easing generally associated with looser financial conditions and risk-asset support (source: Federal Reserve). Into the decision window, traders typically monitor DXY, the U.S. 2-year yield, BTC perpetual funding rates, and options implied volatility to gauge positioning and potential volatility around the statement and press conference (source: CME Group; Federal Reserve).

According to @EricBalchunas, the U.S. jobs report is delayed and any outcome will be both bad and good for markets, framing a trade-off between an improving economy and the appeal of rate cuts. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676 Traders should structure scenarios around this trade-off: if markets prefer signs of improving growth, the implication is reduced urgency for rate cuts; if markets prefer rate cuts, the path of yields becomes the dominant driver of risk appetite. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676 For crypto, this means monitoring rates expectations and Treasury yields as key inputs for beta exposure in BTC and ETH around the release and immediate aftermath. Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 5, 2025, https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1963939724977930676

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. is on a fiscal path that guarantees 100% certainty of long-run bankruptcy and will require short-term pain for long-term gain, citing President Trump’s trade-war framing as context, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. According to @KobeissiLetter, the post also links Elon Musk to DOGE and references his criticism of a spending bill in June, highlighting DOGE as a focal asset, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For factual clarity, Dogecoin was created by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013; Elon Musk did not found DOGE, source: Dogecoin Foundation and Wikipedia. The Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt and net interest costs to climb to record levels over the long term, aligning with the post’s fiscal-risk theme that traders watch for macro liquidity implications, source: CBO 2024 Long-Term Budget Outlook. DOGE has historically shown outsized price reactions to Elon Musk’s posts, making headline risk a concrete, short-term trading catalyst for DOGE, source: Reuters coverage of Musk-related DOGE moves in 2021.

According to @QCPgroup, the dollar strengthened, Treasury yields moved higher, gold came under pressure, and equities stayed resilient despite this macro shift (source: @QCPgroup). For crypto traders, this update signals a changing macro backdrop to incorporate into BTC and ETH positioning and risk management, with equity resilience tempering the tighter-rate backdrop identified by @QCPgroup (source: @QCPgroup).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US deficit spending crisis should be the top economic priority, spending keeps rising, DOGE was mentioned as having attempted to solve it, and Donald Trump vowed to use tariff revenue to reduce the deficit. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 13, 2025. For trading, persistent fiscal deficits increase Treasury borrowing needs and issuance, which can pressure yields and tighten financial conditions that typically weigh on risk assets including major cryptocurrencies. Source: U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement, Nov 2023; IMF blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022. Tariff-related headlines tend to be inflationary and can lift rate expectations, a backdrop that has historically added volatility across equities and crypto. Source: Federal Reserve Board research on tariff pass-through to U.S. prices, 2019; Kaiko market commentary on macro-event-driven crypto volatility, 2023. Mentions of DOGE can catalyze memecoin flows during policy news cycles, so monitor DOGE liquidity and funding rates around fiscal and trade policy headlines. Source: Binance Research memecoin market structure and liquidity, 2023; Kaiko memecoin liquidity reports, 2024.

According to @rovercrc, a September rate cut is coming and could drive trillions of dollars into Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto, per an X post on August 11, 2025. According to @rovercrc, the post does not include an official Federal Reserve source, so the claim remains unverified by the central bank at the time of posting. According to the Federal Reserve, policy-rate decisions are only confirmed via official FOMC statements and releases on federalreserve.gov, so traders should wait for official communication before sizing positions. According to the Federal Reserve’s explanation of monetary policy transmission, liquidity conditions can shift after rate decisions, so BTC traders can monitor FOMC announcements, US Treasury yield moves, and BTC spot and futures basis for volatility around policy updates.

According to Aaron Brogan and Jean-Marie Mognetti, recent crypto IPOs, including Circle's market cap surge to $43.9 billion, indicate robust institutional demand and potential trading opportunities. Brogan cited public market premiums, such as MicroStrategy's BTC holdings, and regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act as key drivers for stablecoin issuers like USDC. Mognetti's survey revealed that nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase allocations, emphasizing advisors must provide transparent risk management to capitalize on market growth.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, bond yields continue to rise even amid escalating conflict between two major global powers, as seen in recent market data (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 13, 2025). This persistence in high yields signals ongoing risk aversion and tightening liquidity, which can increase volatility across equity and crypto markets. Traders should monitor the impact of rising yields on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices, as higher rates often pressure risk assets and may lead to further downside or choppy trading conditions. Adjusting portfolio allocations and watching for correlations between treasury yields and crypto price movements remain critical for informed trading decisions.

According to André Dragosch, PhD (@Andre_Dragosch), the Federal Reserve appears to be losing control over certain segments of the 10-year Treasury yield, as indicated by recent yield movements. This loss of control could lead to heightened market volatility and risk-off sentiment, which historically correlates with increased Bitcoin (BTC) price swings and significant crypto market reactions. Traders should monitor Treasury yield trends closely, as rapid changes in yields often precede major BTC and altcoin market shifts. Source: Twitter/@Andre_Dragosch, June 13, 2025.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the ongoing confirmation of bearish divergence in US 2-year yields points to a continued downward trend, accompanied by rising M2 supply and a consolidation phase for gold. For traders, this macro trend suggests a shift towards risk-on assets, which historically benefits the cryptocurrency market as lower yields and higher liquidity often drive capital into BTC and ETH. Monitoring US Treasury yields and M2 money supply fluctuations is crucial for anticipating volatility and potential bullish momentum in digital assets. (Source: Twitter @CryptoMichNL, June 12, 2025)

According to Edward Dowd, a recent report highlights early signs of a brewing housing market crisis, forecasting a drop in treasury yields and a trend toward disinflation in the coming months. These macroeconomic shifts may lead to reduced risk appetites in traditional markets, which could drive increased volatility and potential capital flows into cryptocurrencies as alternative assets. Traders should monitor treasury yield trends and housing market data closely for signals that could trigger renewed crypto market momentum or risk-off moves. (Source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 27, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are exhibiting strong positive reactions to the recent pullback in treasury yields, as seen on May 27, 2025 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter). Lower yields typically make risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive, driving increased trading volumes and bullish sentiment in Bitcoin and major altcoins. Crypto traders should monitor treasury movements closely, as sustained lower yields may fuel further inflows into digital assets, enhancing price momentum in the near term (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, financial markets showed significant sensitivity to the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, driving a broad rally across risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 27, 2025). Lower yields have historically boosted crypto prices by making alternative assets more attractive, and today's market reaction reinforced this correlation. For traders, sustained lower yields could depend on factors such as dovish Federal Reserve policy, moderated inflation, and stable economic growth (source: The Kobeissi Letter). Monitoring yield trends remains crucial for active crypto traders, as further declines may trigger additional upside in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the weekly analysis for May 26th highlights significant market trends and technical chart patterns impacting both equities and cryptocurrency markets. The Chart of the Week features in-depth analysis of macroeconomic indicators, including US Treasury yields and S&P 500 index performance, which historically correlate with Bitcoin price movements (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 26th, 2025). Traders are advised to monitor shifts in equity volatility and bond yields, as these can signal potential volatility in major crypto assets. The Kobeissi Letter's data-driven approach offers actionable signals for both traditional and digital asset traders.

According to Bloomberg (@business), several prominent hedge funds, including Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management, have disclosed significant short positions against US Treasuries, citing rising interest rates and inflationary pressures (source: Bloomberg, June 2024). This bearish sentiment towards government bonds is fueled by expectations of continued Federal Reserve tightening, which historically leads to bond price declines and higher yields. For crypto traders, these macro trends may drive increased volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as institutional investors seek alternative assets during bond market stress (source: CoinDesk, June 2024). Traders should monitor Treasury yields and Fed policy announcements closely, as shifts in bond markets can trigger capital flows into or out of digital assets.

According to @markets, the bond market is showing complex signals as $IEF, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, is up both today and year-to-date, even though Treasury yields have climbed, challenging the prevailing 'Sell America' narrative. This divergence comes while the S&P 500 has rebounded, suggesting renewed risk-on sentiment. For crypto traders, this reflects shifting institutional risk appetite that could influence Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, as increased bond buying may signal hedging behavior or expectations for policy shifts (source: @markets, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance).

According to StockMKTNewz, the US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.15%, marking its highest level since October 2023 (source: StockMKTNewz on Twitter, May 22, 2025). This significant rise in long-term yields is increasing risk-off sentiment across financial markets, leading to volatility in both traditional equities and cryptocurrency assets. Elevated yields typically strengthen the US dollar, which can pressure Bitcoin and altcoin prices as global investors seek safer returns in bonds. Crypto traders should closely monitor bond yield trends, as further increases could trigger additional outflows from risk assets and impact short-term trading strategies.