According to the source, Polymarket pricing shows an 83% market-implied probability that the U.S. government shutdown extends past Oct 15 as of Oct 8, 2025, signaling elevated event risk into mid-October for market participants. Source: Polymarket market data.

According to @ReutersBiz, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced as artificial intelligence-related dealmaking boosted investor sentiment. According to @ReutersBiz, the gains came even as the U.S. government shutdown extended into its sixth day. According to @ReutersBiz, AI-focused M&A headlines were cited as the primary catalyst for the risk-on move in growth benchmarks.

According to the source, BTC hit a new all-time high above $125,000, according to CoinMarketCap pricing on Oct 6, 2025, source: CoinMarketCap. Polymarket bettors priced a 73% chance that a U.S. government shutdown lasts until Oct 15 or later, according to Polymarket market data on Oct 6, 2025, source: Polymarket. Grayscale said it is offering staking via U.S. spot crypto exchange-traded products and described the move as a first for the category, according to a Grayscale company announcement, source: Grayscale.

According to @business, traders are preparing for the fallout as the U.S. government shutdown shows no end in sight, earnings season approaches, equity valuations remain elevated, and the labor market shows signs of cooling. source: Bloomberg Traders are bracing for volatility across risk assets as macro uncertainty collides with high equity valuations. source: Bloomberg BTC and ETH have exhibited sustained positive correlations with U.S. equities during 2022–2023, linking crypto performance to equity risk sentiment. source: Kaiko Research Past U.S. shutdowns reduced near-term growth and disrupted key economic data releases used for trading decisions, heightening policy and rate uncertainty. source: Congressional Budget Office; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Crypto traders monitor U.S. yields and the dollar because BTC has shown inverse relationships to real yields and DXY in prior cycles, making macro swings during earnings season particularly relevant for crypto risk. source: Coin Metrics

According to @ReutersBiz, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ended at all-time closing highs as market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts improved while the federal government shutdown reached its third day, highlighting a risk-on backdrop that traders track for cross-asset flows. Based on @ReutersBiz's report, crypto traders can monitor BTC and ETH price action for potential spillover from equity momentum and shifting rate-cut expectations identified by @ReutersBiz.

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) came close to setting a new all-time high as Uptober began, with momentum building despite the U.S. government shutdown backdrop; source: the provided tweet. Immediate trading focus is the prior ATH as resistance; a decisive daily close above that level would confirm breakout continuation, while rejection suggests range reversion; source: independent analysis. Risk management cues include tracking perpetual funding rates and futures basis into resistance, as elevated funding near highs can signal overcrowded longs and raise pullback risk; source: independent analysis. Expect liquidity gaps and higher volatility around ATH tests; consider wider stops or reduced size and watch spot-led moves for healthier breakouts; source: independent analysis. Macro headlines tied to the U.S. government shutdown can amplify moves; monitor DXY and U.S. Treasury yields for correlation shifts that may impact BTC risk appetite; source: independent analysis.

According to @ReutersBiz, Canada's TSX rose as technology stocks led gains while increased market bets on a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut offset concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown; source: Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz). Traders balanced shutdown risk against dovish rate expectations as the key drivers of intraday momentum; source: Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz).

According to @ReutersBiz, U.S. major stock indexes ended at record closing highs with modest gains as investors cautiously monitored private labor market data on the second day of a U.S. government shutdown; source: reut.rs/4h1mc9e. No direct impact on cryptocurrencies was reported by the source; source: reut.rs/4h1mc9e.

According to @ReutersBiz, Wall Street’s major indexes hit record highs driven by tech stocks as investors monitored private labor data amid the U.S. government shutdown. According to @ReutersBiz, the update focused on equities and labor data, with no cryptocurrency market impacts mentioned.

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) reportedly moved above $120,000 while the U.S. government shutdown continued on Oct 2, 2025, highlighting a notable price milestone relevant to intraday breakout monitoring and post-breakout retest setups for traders, source: Oct 2, 2025 social media post linking to a news article.

According to @CNBC, the U.S. government shut down on Oct 1, 2025, as its Daily Open brief highlighted, following a September that ended with stocks "buzzing" after a late-month surge (source: CNBC). According to @CNBC, the piece frames the shutdown alongside September’s upbeat market tone as the key macro backdrop for the new trading month that traders will monitor for sentiment shifts across risk assets, including crypto, though the brief did not provide crypto-specific data (source: CNBC).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the average U.S. government shutdown lasts about 8 days, framing a relatively short event window for risk management and positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 finished higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases with an average gain of about 13%, underscoring historically favorable 12‑month equity returns after resolution (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, during the 35‑day 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 rallied roughly 11%, highlighting the potential for a risk‑on tape even amid prolonged closures (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. defers about $400 million per day in costs during a shutdown and the Fed generally turns more dovish if government data releases are paused, shaping rate‑path expectations and liquidity conditions (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). Stock‑crypto correlation has risen since 2020, so if equities firm on a shutdown‑related dovish shift, BTC and ETH often echo risk‑on moves, which traders can incorporate into cross‑asset strategies (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 11, 2022). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the shutdown timeline and the restart of economic data is key for timing potential shifts in Fed expectations that can ripple through SPX, yields, DXY, VIX, and crypto beta (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025).

According to @AltcoinGordon, Bitcoin (BTC) is up on headlines of a U.S. government shutdown; source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Oct 1, 2025. According to @AltcoinGordon, the post cites the shutdown news as the catalyst and does not provide specific price levels or additional market data; source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Oct 1, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the odds of a U.S. Government shutdown in 2025 have increased to 60%, which may affect market stability and investor confidence, potentially leading to market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the likelihood of a U.S. Government shutdown in 2025 has risen to 60%, which could lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency markets as investors seek to hedge against potential economic instability.