According to @CNBC, the U.S. government shut down on Oct 1, 2025, as its Daily Open brief highlighted, following a September that ended with stocks "buzzing" after a late-month surge (source: CNBC). According to @CNBC, the piece frames the shutdown alongside September’s upbeat market tone as the key macro backdrop for the new trading month that traders will monitor for sentiment shifts across risk assets, including crypto, though the brief did not provide crypto-specific data (source: CNBC).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the average U.S. government shutdown lasts about 8 days, framing a relatively short event window for risk management and positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 finished higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases with an average gain of about 13%, underscoring historically favorable 12‑month equity returns after resolution (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, during the 35‑day 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 rallied roughly 11%, highlighting the potential for a risk‑on tape even amid prolonged closures (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. defers about $400 million per day in costs during a shutdown and the Fed generally turns more dovish if government data releases are paused, shaping rate‑path expectations and liquidity conditions (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). Stock‑crypto correlation has risen since 2020, so if equities firm on a shutdown‑related dovish shift, BTC and ETH often echo risk‑on moves, which traders can incorporate into cross‑asset strategies (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 11, 2022). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the shutdown timeline and the restart of economic data is key for timing potential shifts in Fed expectations that can ripple through SPX, yields, DXY, VIX, and crypto beta (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025).

According to @AltcoinGordon, Bitcoin (BTC) is up on headlines of a U.S. government shutdown; source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Oct 1, 2025. According to @AltcoinGordon, the post cites the shutdown news as the catalyst and does not provide specific price levels or additional market data; source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Oct 1, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the odds of a U.S. Government shutdown in 2025 have increased to 60%, which may affect market stability and investor confidence, potentially leading to market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the likelihood of a U.S. Government shutdown in 2025 has risen to 60%, which could lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency markets as investors seek to hedge against potential economic instability.